Bills Will be a Tough Ticket This Year
The Buffalo News points out that Bills season ticket sales are expected to climb above the 50,000 mark for the upcoming season. This despite the fact that the Bills haven’t made the playoffs since Doug Flutie was on the team, and while they are improving, they are certainly not a shoo-in for the playoffs this year.
Many theories are offered for this strange phenomenon.
- “I think the message is the same message that’s it’s been all along, that we have some of the most loyal fans in the league,†said Scott Berchtold, vice president of communications.
- the average season-ticket cost has dropped some 11.8 percent.
- “I think a lot of it is the optimism fans have regarding this year’s team,†Berchtold said. “We’re as optimistic as anybody about our chances of making the playoffs, and our fans have certainly responded to that.â€
- a larger discount in season-ticket prices (compared with individual game tickets) and season-ticket holders’ first dibs on individual tickets before they go on sale to the public in July.
All of those are valid points, some more than others. But what everyone seems to be missing, and perhaps it is intentional, is the real reason ticket sales stay strong.
The ease of entry into the ticket resale market for the average fan.
Once upon a time, if you had season tickets you either had to go to the game yourself, give (or sell) them to a friend, or eat the tickets. Sometimes it’s hard to sell those tickets to your limited social circle, so often you ended up giving them away or selling them for next to nothing.
But with the recent legal changes in regards to selling tickets (scalping is now legal in New York), coupled with the ease of placing your tickets on ebay or StubHub, the options for season ticket holders has changed. Please allow me to cite two real-world examples.
My brother-in-law owns four seats in the end zone, tunnel end, second row. They provide a very unique perspective for viewing a game. So unique, in fact, that he can get $200 per ticket from out-of-town fans for select games. He pays $45 per ticket as a season ticket holder. Now, he can’t make a profit of $620 every game, but he can make that profit three times this year if he wants to do so. He could sell those tickets for the games against the Patriots, Jets, and Browns (Monday night) and make $1,860. If he wants to go to one of those games, his profit drops, but he still makes good coin and gets to go to four other games. The point is, those seats cost him $1,440, and he can pay for his seasons and pocket $420 by selling just those three games. The rest of the games he can go to, or sell the tickets for what the market will bear, or flush them down the toilet. Regardless, he has his money. He would buy another 20 seats if they were available in those prime areas.
The next real-world example is me. My other brother-in-law and our boy Jerome decided to drop out this year. So I gave up one seat and renewed for two seats on my own. With ten years of ticket holder seniority we had managed to move from section 117, to 115, to 109, and I now have pretty good seats on the twenty yard-line just 19 rows up. Those seats cost $70 each, or $140 per game for me.
Now, I’m a loyal Bills fan, and I know I will end up going to most of the games. Let’s just say I make five of the seven regular season games because of family or business commitments. The other two, I choose to put on ebay. And let’s pretend those two games are the Pats (late December) and the Chargers (late October). I can sell those Pats tickets for $400 bucks, and thats a profit of $260. And the Chargers tickets will sell, in my estimation, for about $180, or a $40 profit (remember, you can’t buy tickets where I sit for individual games, so there is value even in the worst games).
At the end of the year, my tickets cost me $1,120 (remember the preseason game). I made $300 from selling the two games I missed, so my tickets cost me $820 bucks. Plus, for the the games I go to whoever I bring is paying me face value for the ticket most of the time (let’s say I recoup $350 out of an available $560). That means I see five regular season games and a preseason game, at a cost of $470, or $58.75 per ticket. Thats $12 below the season ticket price per seat, and probably $22 below the walk-up price. Plus, I keep my seniority, have first crack at extra tickets to every game before they even go on sale to the public (which I suppose I could sell as well, but I’m too lazy), and never have to feel bad about missing a game from a financial standpoint, because I can almost always recover my costs.
And if all that fails, and you are too incompetent to use ebay or StubHub, Ticketmaster has it’s own site where you can resell your tickets with zero effort.
The majority of your savvy season ticket holders have all realized this, and will now never dream of giving up their seniority just because the Bills blow. Many season ticket holders will be snapping up every possible ticket for the Monday Night Football game, and those tickets will never be available to the public. And they WILL sell on ebay for $200 a pop in the good seats. All that makes tickets more scarce (the Jets and Pats will probably sell out early as well, so that leaves four games with tickets available to the public). And season ticket holders will buy up some seats for the rest of the games, leaving about 15,000 seats available for each of those four games. And we all know how many Bills fans there are who just want to go to a game or two, and that’s assuming the Bills don’t get good and put real pressure on demand for seats.
It’s simple supply and demand. The ticket merchants make supply scarce, which drives up the price. And since most people can pay for their seasons by selling three games, the rest of the games don’t matter much to sellers. That may mean that the crappy seats can be had for below face, but the good seats always get their money.
Anyway, just a theory. Makes sense to me.
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This is a great tutorial on the business of tickets in the internet age and you are spot on.
Want a primer on Sabres season tickets? The gap between season ticket price and window price is so huge that the savvy season ticket holder can end up seeing his/her games for free. I bought four extra tickets after the lockout ended and have turned ticket resales into a cottage industry.
The only tough part is managing the capital part – paying for the seats on the installment plan throughout the summer, but moneys for ticket sales don’t begin to flow until September.
Couple of points:
1) The merchants don’t “make supply scarce” tickets simply are. There are only X number of seats for X number of games, and that is why they are scarce.
2) This also illustrates the larger point of why Buffalo cannot continue to support an NFL team. It doesn’t matter that we’re selling out games, the games will sell out in other cities for higher prices and make everyone more money. If Buffalonians are willing to sell their tickets at 3 or 4 times face value, why should we be upset that NFL owners want the team moved elsewhere so they can get in on those profits as well?
Good point on No. 1 there, Ben. Merchants just make them more scarce, I guess.
“why should we be upset that NFL owners want the team moved elsewhere so they can get in on those profits as well?”
Ben, I see your point, but I once again have to say that if that were the case, then the only cities that would have NFL teams would be the 32 largest/richest metro areas in the country (give or take a few cities, considering you’d have 2 or even 3 in places like NYC). As long as Cincy, Green Bay and Jacksonville all still have teams, then there’s no reason why Buffalo can’t as well.
Kevin, I think you’re off on your math a bit. You say your seasons cost $1120 but you could sell two games and end up only paying $820. You arrive at that number by only subtracting your total per-game profit (260+40) from $1120. You should instead subtract the total amount that you sell those two games for: 400+180=580. Using that value you end up essentially only paying $540 for your tickets, making your point even more effective. In a sense the four schmoes that bought those two games could end up paying the Bills more for their tickets (580) than you do for the whole rest of the season (540).
Dave,
Nice point. Tradition and fanbase dedication matter in keeping a team in a city. Sheer population (Hello, LA?) isn’t always an indicator. Though if worse comes to worse, pray for a Super Bowl** or hurricane. That will guarantee your team won’t move.
** – Super Bowl win good for an extra 30 years only according to the NBA’s Sonics model.
On a completely unrelated note, did you see the ticket prices for the games in Toronto? $295 a seat? I know the range is $55 to $295, but the access to those $55 seats is going to be extremely limited. That is RIDICULOUS.
Dave,
Couple of reasons that’s not entirely true.
1) There is still a cost associated with moving a team. Not just moving costs and taxes but the time and money spent to develop and build a new fan base in a new area. With that in mind it doesn’t necessarily make sense to move a team to a slightly richer area if you’re talking about a very long term ROI. In the case of Buffalo the leap in revenue would be so dramatic that I believe it makes a move much more appealing.
2) Green Bay is, and continues to be, a unique situation. Their ownership setup changes the economics of the team. The NFL doesn’t like it, which is why they don’t let anyone else do it, but it does create a different discussion when talking about who’s making money and how they’re making it. Also, see point #3.
3) Cincinnati’s average ticket price in 2007 was $66, $20/ticket higher than Buffalo. Green Bay was almost as high at $63. Average for the NFL is about $67. If Buffalo is still going to sell out games with average seat prices increasing by $20 a ticket then the argument would hold, but there is no evidence that this market would bear that cost. Add in luxury suites and other amenities that those stadiums offer to their clubs and you can see that it’s not a “size of market” issue, it’s a “what will your market bear” issue.
I have no idea how Jacksonville does it. Maybe we should take notes from them. One thing to note, prior to the housing slump Jacksonville was up there with cities like Charlotte in terms of economic prosperity and market growth. There is a LOT of upside in Jacksonville right now, not so much in Buffalo. As an owner in Jacksonville you can easily make the argument that your prices will climb above league average over the next decade.
4) Over a long period of time I think you will see the teams slowly migrate to the richest cities in the country (they certainly have been doing that for the past 20 years). It won’t happen over night because there are costs associated with moving and I believe the NFL gets marketing value out of having a team in places like Green Bay and Pittsburgh. Also take into account that the “richest” cities change over time, so it’s a moving target.
On a more anecdotal note, I think the increase in season ticket sales has a little to do with people wanting to enjoy as many games as they can before the team moves. Perhaps mixed with some people wanting to demonstrate that Buffalo can still support an NFL team with a high percentage of seats being held be season ticket holders.
In the end, an NFL team in Toronto, LA, Portland, or Las Vegas could sell the same amount of season tickets from 4-5 times the price (with a PSL on top of it)…with a greater number of companies from which to draw luxury box revenue. It’s the cold economic facts of the game. This team is not long for Buffalo, so those who love the event of a day at The Ralph should savor it while it’s here.
Chris,
Amen to that. I get married on Oct 18th, on the 19th I’ll be at The Ralph
I get married on the 12th in Buffalo…we lost out in the bye week lottery. Curse you NFL!
No offense to the “hard economic facts” folks (and I am realistic as the next guy), but I refuse to see the inevitability of the Bills leaving the area as something that we’ll just *have* to deal with. There are options available, and I anticipate the city and other ownership groups exercising them to keep the Bills in place. Like it or not, this team still makes $30M (before the TOR deal) a year by being in Buffalo. I understand that owners like to make more money, but even Wylf in Minnesota could’ve moved that team when he bought them. Instead, he kept them there. There are a lot of factors.
If regionalization means moving half the games to Toronto in the end (a la GB playing 4 games a year in Milwaukee in the 80s), than I can swallow that. Then you’ll get your precious season ticket price increase in Buffalo up to $70/game so we can “compete” with Cincy and Jacksonville (who had to limit ticket supply last year by 10k tickets because they couldn’t come close to a sellout).
How does Jacksonville do it? By tarping over half the upper deck so that they can come close to selling out despite having a team that actually makes the playoffs.
Chris (not smith),
I would agree that “inevitable” is too strong a word also. I think it’s certainly likely that they’ll leave, but by no means a forgone conclusion. A solid regionalization plan seems good (imagine a stadium in Hamilton or St. Catherine’s). My point is mostly that:
a) It should not be surprising to anyone if they do leave for greener pastures.
and
b) We need to drop this sense of entitlement to the team and recognize that there are other factors in play. No matter how much we wish it were different, our loyalty only earns a limited amount of credit.
Also, this $30 mil/year thing needs to go away. It’s a meaningless number and doesn’t take into account about a zillion other factors. It’s disingenuous (I’d say downright misleading) to suggest that Ralph’s or anyone else’s net worth increases by $30 mil each year.
Nice article — thanks for rubbing it in. After 5 years of having seasons, I took last year off and gave them up. I’d say mostly due to an unfortunate event but regardless of that, I knew I’d be going to a couple games just like Average Bills Fan. I went to 3 and it cost me.
I’ll never do that again even if I have to rely on Flomax to handle my gameday beverages.
Speaking of weddings — Can any of you guys recommend a good jeweler in the city? Because no, I’m not going to Jared.
Haha He went to Jared!
Talkin_Proud I’ll get on my soapbox no problem.
I HIGHLY recommend going to the antique shop. Maybe your intended doesn’t go for antiques and would settle for nothing less than brand-new, but if there is a chance that it’d work for you lemme explain my reasons:
-Cost is generally much much lower than at a fancy jeweler like Jared or Andrews. Yea yea, Andrew’s diamonds are so flawless you can watch HDTV through them with no distortion, but plenty of the antique diamonds are high quality if you learn how to look at them. I spent $1500 on a ring that would have cost at least twice as much at a proper jewelry store.
-The character on antiques is awesome. They just don’t make rings like this anymore, and if you manage to find one the band costs thousands of dollars just for the design work. I (and my wife-to-be) love the intricate work and character they have most pre-1950 rings and again it doesn’t cost a fortune. Also they used to cut the diamonds differently back then, and you simply can’t get the old style cuts anymore. It’s pretty cool to show off her mine-cut diamond.
-By buying an antique you are not facilitating the inhumane industry behind the diamond market. Yea, it’s a bit of crazy-liberal issue, but it’s very real. Don’t want to feel even a teeny bit guilty about the diamond? Buy an antique. Yea, it was likely mined under much worse conditions but at least you’re buying it second-hand which means you’re not adding to global demand for fresh mined diamonds, the damage was already done.
-You’re also supporting local business. Most antique shops are locally owned so you’re helping out the Buffalo economy. Who doesn’t love to do that?!
I bought my diamond from a place called Asti Antiques on Niagara Falls Blvd near Shawnee Road (close to Melody Fair). Rita and her husband run a great shop, they have a ton of selection, and their inventory rolls over often enough that it won’t take long to find a great ring.
My wife couldn’t be happier with the ring, and I couldn’t have felt better about the buying process.
Okay, I’m done now.
Ben, Thank You for such an edutaining write-up. Whether or not I go antique, I don’t think I would’ve have gotten that lead from anyone I know. That possibility has certainly piqued my interest.
All I knew was that I was going to stay local. Thanks again.
If you really want to talk big picture, the way to keep the Bills in Buffalo is lower taxes, get rid of the unions and make WNY a great place to do business (considering you have 8k new employees every year coming out of UB, the supply is there). However, since the state is led by what might be the most inept leadership ever — and the local levels are not that much better — there is little hope on that front.
Also, Ben, please explain to me why the Forbes numbers should not be used as a baseline for the profitability of the Bills. I know its EBIT, but the Bills have very little in the way of interest payments and in the revenue sharing, they are a big taker.
Is my ticket still available? I am in…….for real. The baby isn’t even here yet and I need to get out of the house! Little Jerome is due next week. The latest sonogram( sp?) revealed a tiny afro, gold tooth and tattoo that said RESPECT BITCHES!
Why would anyone want to respect bitches? They’re bitches.
289,
L-O-L.
Ben,
I think you miss an important point in your argument that this scalping is indicative of Buffalo not being able to support an NFL team. In fact, I would say that the tickets reselling for so far above face means that they’re underpriced. In my opinion, the Bills aren’t squeezing all the revenue they can out of their tickets, and until they do, I won’t believe them when they come to Buffalonians crying poor.
Talking Proud:
I’ve been to Asti and they have a great selection and they are very knowledgable. For a new ring at a great price go my route: Diamond Cutters in the Ellicot Square Building. They are a wholesaler so you pick out the stone then the setting.