Davis 56% Reynolds 40%

That explains it. This poll (.pdf) was evidently released on October 12th – one day before the storm that knocked everyone out, so it received little play.

Look at the way the momentum’s been going, as per TPMCafe:

UPDATE: This is just wonderful prose, from Early and Often:

Yesterday, Tom Reynolds — National Republican Congressional Committee chair, Mark Foley cover-upper, and part-time youth exploiter — arose from his premature winter slumber, shook off the cobwebs, and reassured voters with this helpful cliché.

“Democrats, desperate after more than a decade out of power, are trying to nationalize this election,” Reynolds told the National Press Club yesterday. “But the old saying still rings true: Voters may hate Congress, but they like their local representative.”

Reynolds didn’t bother to note the he’s trailing in his own reelection bid by thirteen points, a contradiction that suggests either (a) the old rule of incumbency is changing or (b) Tom Reynolds is just that transcendently loathsome.