If Powers can raise 1 Million by the March 31st filing deadline – and the money is there, that’s not that big a reach – he’s the guy, if not, he’s not. We cant win on 750K and a pretty smile.

Well, Davis has proven twice now that $2 million, one issue, and a surly attitude with poor people skills aren’t going to help him win, either.

I dont? understand? This is what you don’t understand: 10 weeks of TV in Rochester and Buffalo is 1.5 Million dollars. Per commercial. You might want more than one airing at a time. And that doesn’t include production costs. Mailing 1 flyer to the district’s 400,000 Registered Voters is $200,000; mailing 6 is $1.2 Million. Your staff is going to cost at least $200,000. You need a program for contacting voters in this sort of race; Gerkin’s specialties lie elsewhere. What you do understand is that organizing a get out the vote program in Orleans, Niagara, Livingston, Genesee, Wyoming is where this party needs to do better. What you fail to grasp is that organizing one in Erie and Monroe Counties is cheap. Organizing in the exurbs and rural areas is expensive: Very expensive.

No question that Powers is the better candidate in a publicly financed election. But Powers has raised no money. That $350K is nothing.

He’s never going to get the BIG national money, because Kryzan’s forcing a primary, and they won’t support when there is a primary.

If Powers can raise 1 Million by the March 31st filing deadline – and the money is there, that’s not that big a reach – he’s the guy, if not, he’s not. We cant win on 750K and a pretty smile.

I know that Davis has the kind of money to throw around to pay staffers, but these people were telling him to campaign and he wasn’t! They were right and he was wrong.

Mike W: The last two don’t depend on the first. Powers has been able to market him very nicely due to the Internet. He’s received a ton of Internet support (as evidenced by his ActBlue success) and you Mike, of all people, should know how important the Internet is nowadays.

All Davis had was his money. He had no organization. I saw it firsthand. You can’t have an organization when the candidate isn’t listening to you. And as for marketing, in a district like this, the most important form of marketing is getting out on foot and talking to people. Powers has done that. For example, Jon Powers has been to Orleans County at least six or seven times since the summer of 2007. According to Democrats in Orleans County, Davis made one stop in 2004 and they never saw him once in 2006.

The Powers campaign is organized and they can market their candidate. Davis, on the other hand, only has the money. He won’t be organized and he’s not marketable. He’s a single-issue candidate and has very little to offer other than that.

And when he tells a room full of Democrats (in Genesee County) that he’s going to go to Washington and take on Pelosi, Rangel and others, that’s not something you say to a room… full… of… Democrats. Especially when the man you want to take on (Reynolds) is attacking the same people.

The problem is that some people want to say, for example, that because John Gerken lost with Davis in 2006, that was all his fault. They say that about a lot of the staffers from that campaign. The truth is that Davis didn’t listen to any of them. He did things his way…

and lost.

Twice.

Have you met those staffers? That’s my biggest knock against Powers right now.

As for Powers, I tend to not believe in the power of the “almighty” dollar. I believe in candidates who rally the masses. Powers has shown that ability. He will garner votes for several reasons – least of which is his bankroll.

We seem to be forgetting who we are running against in this election. Reynolds isn’t the Reynolds of 2002, 2004 or even 2006. Reynolds is weak. It shows in his fundraising numbers compared to past years and it shows in rumors of his retirement. The GOP thinks that they will lose this seat. So this talk that the only candidate for the job is Davis because of his money is, well, absurd. Davis had two chances. He lost 56-44 in 2004. Then in a rematch, where everything fell (presumably) his way, he still lost by four points.

That doesn’t say much for Davis, who is now blaming his former staffers (which are now some current Powers staffers) as the reason(s) for him not campaigning.