Seriously?

People REALLY think Byron Brown would hold a seat Bloomberg and Rudy could be eyeing? Because he’s done what exactly? Built a Bass Pro?…(oh wait)

I have a feeling these ‘rumors’ are nothing more than wishful thinking by the Buffalo media and an excuse to write a few easy columns.

If Higgins were appointed, then there would be a special election for his replacement. With the special, there would be no primary, the parties would directly nominate their candidates. In that case you would likely see Poloncarz or Hochul as the candidate. A Republican can win the seat, as Jack Quinn has shown, Hoyt hasn’t shown he can win outside the city yet. Poloncarz, if he wanted it, would probably be the first choice, due to his ties to Dem HQ, Hochul would be second in line, is my guess.

If Brown were to become Senator, then the Council President becomes acting Mayor, who is Fronczak (I think??). That would set a scramble in the open Mayor’s seat. Hoyt would certainly be a top contender but he has shown he can only rely on about 55% from his Assembly Seat. Mickey Kearns wants to run, which would probably keep South Buffalo with him. Fronczak would probably want to run too, his district is low on population though, and the polish vote ain’t what it used to be in the city. There are no major Italian candidates not tied to the Hoyt organization who could run. The big question is who Grassroots puts forward, 40% of the primary vote will be Black and they vote in a bloc for credible Black candidates. Grassroots has a weak bench right now though, their council members aren’t strong enough. Antoine Thompson would be the obvious heir, but he is pretty deeply involved as a State Senator, which would make their best options a judge like Ogden, McLeod or Russell, if any of them are willing to give up being a judge to run. Hoyt and 2 other white candidates, particularly ethnic ones, would make it difficult for him to win against a credible Black candidate.

If Hoyt were to take a seat, Iannello couldn’t replace him, she doesn’t live in the district as it’s been said before. There is a residency requirement and even if she somehow got it not being close with the Hoyt people, it would be a tough seat to defend in a primary with your base in GI. Hoyt replacements would more likely be Cuomo aide John Maggoire, Maria Whyte, Mike LoCurto, or Sean Ryan.

Replacing Iannello? EC Dems exec director Kathy Callan, Kenmore Trustee Kathy Bestine, Kenmore Trustee Tim McCarthy, City of Tonawanda Councilman Rick Davis.