How Does Terrorism End?

It’s a simple question, isn’t it?  Sometimes in order to solve the most complex problems, one has to take a step back and re-examine the basics.  Earlier this year, RAND published a landmark study on the end of terrorism that seems to have received very little national attention.

As Barack Obama prepares to assume the Presidency, the time is right to reassess our global “war on terror” and change the way we think about prosecuting Al Qaeda.

The comprehensive study analyzes 648 terrorist groups that existed between 1968 and 2006. The most common way that terrorist groups end — 43 percent – was via a transition to the political process.

The second most common way that terrorist groups end — 40 percent – was through police and intelligence services either apprehending or killing the key leaders of these groups.

Military force was effective in only 7 percent of the cases examined; in most instances, military force is too blunt an instrument to be successful against terrorist groups

So, in 83% of historical dealings with terrorism organizations, engagement in the political process and policing brought about an end to a terrorism network.  The study is not simply observational, it offers a strategy for moving forward in the global campaign against Al Qaeda and other affiliated groups.

The study recommends the United States should adopt a two-front strategy: rely on policing and intelligence work to root out the terrorist leaders in Europe, North America, Asia and the Middle East, and involve military force — though not necessarily the U.S. military — when insurgencies are involved.

So, military force as a responsorial force to insurgency while putting forth a primary effort of diplomacy and policing.  Sounds a lot like John Kerry’s proposed strategy in 2004 and Barack Obama’s proposed strategy in 2008.  Both were ridiculed by the right as waving the “white flag of surrender”, when in essence, it is the historically smarter approach.

There is a lot of data to review here and it’s not simple to break it down in a black/white analysis that we are so used to in our political discourse.  Give it a read and let’s discuss it.