Obama and The White Man
“We want our country back!”
That’s the common refrain from teabaggers, quasi-libertarians, and the conservative movement since the election of Barack Obama in 2008. The thing is, most of the members of that movement don’t seem to understand that America and the demographics of the voting class in this country have forever changed.
In 2008, 90% of those who cast a vote for John McCain and his VP nominee, Crazypants McGee, were white. As a percentage of the overall voting populace, McCain captured a total of 55% of the white vote while Obama took 45% of the vote.
Yes, a candidate won a race for President in the United States without carrying a majority of white male voters. The 45% of white American men who cast a vote for Obama were not necessarily spread out around the country in an orderly fashion. Here’s a handy map reflecting the national distribution of white male votes for Obama.
Unsurprisingly, you’ll note that Obama did poorly in the southern states as well as other traditional red states which now make up the national dixie belt. Obama did surprisingly well in some of the least diverse states in the North like Wisconsin, Vermont, Oregon, Washington and Maine. There is something to that data point that I hope to get to in the future. However, Obama didn’t need the white male vote because he took 59% of the vote for non-white men. This chart shows Obama’s non-white male vote distribution around the country.
Looks a lot different, doesn’t it?
Combined with data which shows the GOP fares very poorly with the expanding hispanic and african-american demographics, the strategy for the GOP and the conservative movement is clear. Foment a feeling that America is being taken over by radical minorities and radical “leftists” with their unamerican “urban” agenda.
Over the next couple of years, we’ll watch this strategy grow and see all new sorts of Lee Atwater style tactics and buzzwords used to covertly describe how the black man wants to take away the white man’s rights and privileges. It’s really the only chance the GOP has to regain national power in the face of massively and rapidly changing voter demographics. Fire people up, get them to throw tea bags at each other; compare Obama to Mao, Stalin, Hitler…whatever it takes to motivate the angry white guy who lost his job at the plant due to globalization to get off his ass and get to the polls and maximize turnout. Demonize gays, blame job losses on unions (not shareholder demands and CEO priorities), turn hopelessness into anger and blame.
Will it work? Can this short-term strategy effectuate a return to power for the GOP? Long term, what is the GOP plan to reach out to these changing voter constituencies. I’ll dig into all of that more in the next few weeks as time allows.
Think about this chart until we meet again, it’s probably the most telling of all. It’s a difference between the vote totals of George H.W. Bush in 1988 and the vote totals of John McCain in 2008. It’s stark to see how the GOP base has shrunk so drastically into the dixie belt in just 20 short years.
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Our country was founded on rights and principles that respected individuals and to prevent those seeking to drink from the public trough being able to institute mass plunder. The former is what needs to be restored. Our current form of government, enabled by gutting the Constitution, is immoral. Our fight is to restore right and wrong to its proper perspective, demographics is just part of the subterfuge used to pull the wool over the eyes of voters. A system built upon the foundation of legalized theft is beyond contemptible.
I loathe your comments not because I disagree with them or find them moronic (which I do), but because I’m tired of reading you rehash them every single fucking day. Enough already. We get it, you’re a libertarian and you hate poor people.
interesting chris, but don’t you think the landslide obama enjoyed last november had a lot to do with one republican in particular, george w. bush? by nearly unanimous consent, bush was the worst president ever, yet he was able to win a second term, unlike our previously worst president, carter, who didn’t.
obama’s approval rating, slightly more than 50 percent, is about where bush’s was prior to 9/11/01. the implication that white men tend to vote for other white men, and that there’s something wrong with that, ignores the fact that black people vote for black candidates in overwhelming numbers, percentagewise. i believe that in the last election, the number of blacks voting for obama was north of 90 percent. correct me if i’m wrong.
while it might be comforting to thing that the opposition party is dried up, dead and will blow away, there is a significant chance that the gop will retake one or maybe both houses of congress in 2010. tonight’s gubernatorial elections in virginia and new jersey, along with the 23rd district congressional race here, will provide some indication of what is to come.
people like chris are the exact problem with this friggen state. no one divides the classes and races better than a liberal.
Actually, what I think it shows is that parts of the South and Appalachia have yet to enter the 21st century. Just like before things like Brown vs. Board of Ed and pre-Civil Rights Act, they had yet to enter the 20th.
@jen: How am I dividing the races by looking at data from an election? The demographic shift that is underway in this country will have an extraordinary effect on elections and public policy in the next century. We are not the same country we were in 1980 or 1988 or even 2000. The GOP has done nothing to reach out to this shifting voter base and instead has focused on motivating the white voter base in order to make short term political hay. It will have consequences down the road for them and it is certainly worthy of analysis.
@mike hudson I’d say that the GOP will strengthen or pick up districts like NY23 and maybe make some inroads into traditional Democratic districts where the economic downturn has hit most severely. The blue dogs will be ripe for the pickings as the GOP puts up decent challengers. However, I think if the GOP continues with the strategy employed in the Hoffman race, it will wear thin. I think the Democrats will keep their majorities in the House and Senate in 2010 while losing seats. I think the bigger issue is if the GOP can pick off two of Ohio, Michigan or Pennsylvania in the 2012 Presidential election by praying on these same fears and attitudes. They’d also need to take back NC and VA or FL in order to flip this map. It’s a tall order and the GOP doesn’t really have a candidate with national appeal, which is probably why they are grooming Pataki…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:ElectoralCollege2008.svg
Our current form of government is specifically the one that was designed and created by the constitution. I demand that you immediately return to me the money that you stole from me whilst driving on socialized roads, and that you immediately return to me the money that you stole from me whilst enjoying the benefits of socialized plowing, socialized sanding/salting, socialized police protection, and socialized fire protection. Thanks in advance.
Can I have my Socialized highway money back and my if you are using the communistic sewer and water systems I would like that money back too.
@Chris, you don’t get it. I don’t loathe poor people. I loathe a government that maintains poor people in a manner that makes it much less likely that they will be anything but poor. I am convinced that under a libertarian/constitutional form of government there would be less poor people and an atmosphere that encourages and incentivizes people not to be poor as well as providing the necessary opportunities. People who need help would receive superior, voluntary, compassionate help. What you see as moronic is not what I advocate.
@Alan, nice try, but I am the victim of the threat of force; therefore, I can not be the thief.
Yes, Mike a significant majority of black voters vote for black candidates. Also, while in Buffalo we enjoy a good mix of ethnic diversity, it often makes us overlook the makeup of our predominately white country. Depending on how you spin the numbers that means that 75% – 88% (including hispanics which, in the case of number spin, is done a lot) of the registered voting population voted with a 15% – 2% margin of correction towards voting for the “white” guy. I don’t know about you but 15% doesn’t seem like much. If it’s a matter of racism I would even call that call that progress. Also 59% of the “all but white male” vote includes the 50% of voters that are white females (who, from my knowledge leaned 51% towards Obama). Not to mention the averages of voters vs population based on race, would you like to add those numbers in to the mix? Your numbers are funky and don’t take into account the truth of the voting demographics. So you’re saying that 59% of white male voters (does this include hispanics, where Obama did not fair very well?) voted for McCain? Wow… that’s startling. I mean, that’s more than 50% so it’s a big number! How about the 88% of black males that voted Obama or the 84% black women? Well, he’s a democrat, so it’s not a race thing. The Republican party is in trouble and I for one am thrilled. Years of broken promises and waste will do that. But, as the Democrats are finding out, it’s pretty much par for the course isn’t it? It’s simple “In 2008, 90% of those who cast a vote for John McCain and his VP nominee, Crazypants McGee, were white.” Well, in 2008, 80% of those who cast a vote, at all, were white. Gorsh!
One correction, white women represent 42% – 45% of voters, not the 50% I said above, again depending on which numbers used.
“Actually, what I think it shows is that parts of the South and Appalachia have yet to enter the 21st century. Just like before things like Brown vs. Board of Ed and pre-Civil Rights Act, they had yet to enter the 20th.” Well ain’t them just the plain peaches? I bet ya’ll got the raight wey of doin it up there in them enlightened nothren states! Shiat, we aint got no other reason to vote cept figurin all our goberment leastways be as white as us!
Condescending classist elistist asshat. Maybe we should fight the civil war all over again and wipe the slate clean of them backwards southern states peoples. Prejudice takes many bitter forms eh Alan? That pisses me off as much as those stupid t-shirts that say “Welcome to America, now speak English” Talk about douchebagery. Alan, you, of all people, should know better.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/alexmassie/5497701/a-republican-resurgence.thtml
“Condescending classist elistist asshat” – right on james!
Chris – interesting statistics, but I think the race factor was about priority level 4 in the story of the 2008 election. Bush, general dissatisfaction with the party in power, and the economy I believe all had more to do with the voting outcome than race. The GOP does have a big-tent problem, but race is just scratching the surface.
As for the future, I think libs and Dems consistently misread the anger on the center and right. Alan thinks the south and Appalachia haven’t entered the 21st century yet. You think Teabaggers hate Obama because he is either Hitler or black, or both. That ignores the many rational issues that Conservatives have a problem with: huge deficit being the number one. The teabaggers are nuts and need to go down, and they are bad for my party. But if the Dems aren’t careful, they’ll start losing elections because they dismiss their opposition as lunatics, and forget that plenty fo rational voters will just vote for “the other guy” because he’s not the Dem jacking up the deficit, or not delivering jobs, or mucking up Afghanistan, or whatever.
If the GOP does start picking up seats and winning races (like tonight in NJ, VA and NY), it’ll be because the Dems suck, and not because of a rational effective plan on the GOP side. Things always even out. Watch – national GOP party identification is 17% right, but blue blue NJ is about the elect a GOP Gov. How does that happen?
chris…in presidential politics, i think the american people are a lot more fluid than you give them credit for. i also think that most people — not the insiders and apparatchiks that we in the media see a lot — don’t generally give a rat’s ass about whether a person is a republican or a democrat and base their votes on personal economic issues. eisenhower was the president when i was born, and since 1956 we’ve had six republican and five democratic presidents. you seem to think that’s going to change for some reason i can’t quite fathom. because you make fun of the gop?
at this brief juncture of history, the people calling themselves independents are a de facto though rapidly growing third party and, as has been pointed out, the majority of people identifying themselves as independents tell the pollsters they are conservatives.
the republican/democratic paradigm is the thing best left back in the 20th century, the robotic, pavlovian dog practice of people pulling the dem or gop lever and thinking they did something good.
“the republican/democratic paradigm is the thing best left back in the 20th century”, HEAR HEAR!