‘I didn’t vote for this’: Pro-Trump Appalachians are ‘living on the edge’
When Donald Trump narrowly defeated Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in the United States' 2024 election, he did so with a combination of MAGA diehards and independents. There are huge differences between the between the two: While Trump's hardcore MAGA base consists of true believers, many independents and swing voters favored Joe Biden in the 2020 election but —feeling frustrated over inflation — went with Trump four years later.
In a guest op-ed published on June 9, sociologist Arlie Russell Hochschild examines an area that's full of MAGA diehards: Eastern Kentucky. And he wonders if draconian cuts to safety-net programs could possibly turn MAGA voters against Trump.
"In the first months of Mr. Trump's second term," Hochschild observes, "his story of loss, shame, blame and retribution has split the country into two emotional zones. Many in America's blue half have begun to feel a strange fear. They suddenly have to worry about losing college scholarships, jobs, grants, medical care, and protection from the prying eyes of government officials gathering information from their social media posts. They have heard themselves described, in Mr. Trump’s Memorial Day tweet, as 'scum.' Public officials whose security detail he's withdrawn fear for their safety. Federal judges who've ruled against Mr. Trump have received threatening phone calls."
Hochschild continues, "What do things feel like, I wondered, to the people in Kentucky’s Fifth District? Are we approaching a tipping point when they might start to question Mr. Trump — either because of his threats to democracy, or because his economic policies will make their lives tougher? After all, experts predict Mr. Trump's tariffs will raise prices, and his budget cuts will hit some of his strongest supporters the hardest."
Andrew Scott, the pro-Trump mayor of Coal Run Village, Kentucky, doesn't believe support for Trump will waver among his hardcore base — regardless of economic policies.
Scott told Hochschild, "You know how proud and stoic Appalachians are — we know how to take a little pain. People may have to suffer now to help make America great later. Trump's tariffs could raise prices, but that will force companies to gradually relocate to the U.S."
According to the sociologist, many of the Kentucky residents he interviewed "recognized that" the budget cuts in Trump's One Big, Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 "would create some pain for them or their neighbors, but that didn't seem to bother them."
But drug counselor James Browning isn't so sure that Trump voters in Kentucky will stick with him if his policies cause them hardship.
Browning told Hochschild, "A lot of people around here are living on the edge. If we start to see Trump policies lead to price hikes and benefit cuts — especially Medicaid and Social Security and food stamps — some people will begin to say, 'Wait a minute. I didn’t vote for this.'"
Arlie Russell Hochschild's full New York Times op-ed is available at this link (subscription required).
‘Standstill’: Moody’s chief economist admits job report has him ‘uncomfortable’
Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi has been looking closer at the May jobs report, which was released last week. The more he examines it, however, the more his concern grows.
In an X thread Monday, Zandi confessed, "The more I cogitate on the May jobs report, released last Friday by the BLS, the more uncomfortable I get about the economy’s prospects. There are a bunch of reasons why."
He thinks that job growth has actually screeched to a halt, and the reason might come from the impact of Trump's mass deportations.
"Given the new population controls, measuring labor force growth is tricky, but by my calculation, it’s at a standstill. Look to the severe restrictions on immigration," Zandi wrote. "This time last year, the foreign-born labor force was growing 5%. It’s now declining. The native-born labor force remains moribund."
He went on to caution that large industries will suffer as a result of the deportations. When Trump was campaigning in 2024, he said that he wanted to deport only criminals. Instead, it's been a broader targeting of all immigrants. Federal agents have shown up at schools to target children.
Even the Latinos for Trump co-founder has spoken out against the way the policy has widened.
"The implications of a flagging labor force are disconcerting," said Zandi. "It means serious disruptions to businesses that rely on immigrant labor, ranging from construction and agriculture to hospitality and retailing. It also means higher inflation, just when the higher tariffs are set to push up prices."
"It also means the economy’s real potential GDP growth – that pace of growth consistent with stable inflation – is much lower," he added. "It is currently closer to 1% than the 2% we have come to think of as typical. Think of what this means for everything from asset returns to our already dire fiscal outlook."
