Are you ready for some football?

Something that the National Football League has done right:  they have shortened the exhibition schedule to just three games.  The games are really just fancied up workouts.  With that over, we now pause for a few days until the games start to count.

The Bills were less than inspiring during their pre-season games. Reporters had to dig deep to find something good to say about the team. The offense, defense, and special teams all sputtered at various times. So where do we go from here?

National media reports mostly list the Bills among the top three or four teams this season.  CBS announcer Jim Nantz says they will be in the Super Bowl against the Philadelphia Eagles.  Perhaps it is fortunate, however, that this year they are not universally picked to get there and win.

I thought that would happen last season.  My optimism level is a bit lower this year.

Over the summer I re-watched the playoff game against the Cincinnati Bengals from last January.  That was hard but I wanted to see if the 27-10 loss was as bad as it seemed on that day.  It was.

Story lines from that game talked about how the team had run out of gas after a tough season, punctuated by the Damar Hamlin horrendous medical event and other things such as storms that laid the community low.  Well, welcome to the world.  Many folks in their personal lives deal with tragedies and other bumps in the road, pick themselves up and carry on – without the soothing feeling that comes with million-dollar paychecks.

We are told by Coach Sean McDermott, Josh Allen, and others that Allen has a greater “focus” on the game this year.  So he wasn’t focused last year?

Allen is certainly among the top three or four quarterbacks in the league but he cannot carry the team by himself.  Except for the loss of Tremaine Edmunds to the Bears, the starting lineups are not much different than the 2022 team.  Hopefully Von Miller comes back in prime form before too long into the season.

McDermott is now the defensive coordinator and head coach.  The exhibition games did not inspire confidence in his ability to do both jobs at the same time.

And then there is the 17-game schedule, which may be the toughest that the Bills have faced in the McDermott era.  Road games against both of last season’s Super Bowl teams, Kansas City and Philadelphia, plus Cincinnati will be very difficult.  Just winning the AFC East Division will be more of a challenge than it has been in recent years. 

There shouldn’t be much to worry about with the New England Patriots (how refreshing).

The Miami Dolphins won one of the three games with the Bills last year, but the two they lost were close with the playoff game going down to the wire.  Their quarterback situation will remain iffy with Tua Tagovailoa but they almost won the playoff game with a backup QB.

The Bills split the two games with the New York Jets last year.  The Jets think they are playoff bound with old-man Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.  Maybe.  But consider for a moment how the last former aging Green Bay Packer QB alum, Bret Favre, performed with the Jets when he was brought in to save the team.  They went 9 and 7 in his one season there and did not make the playoffs.  Favre’s QB rating in 2008 was 81 with 22 TDs and 22 interceptions.  Rodgers is acting like he’s superman, but age and injuries in seasons past will diminish his effectiveness.

So where are the Bills headed in 2023?

  • Assume they lose two of the three premier games with Kansas City, Cincinnati, and Philadelphia.
  • Assume they win four of the six games with the AFC East, which will be difficult.
  • They would then need to win six of the other eight games to get to eleven wins for the season.  Those other eight games include the Giants, Cowboys, Chargers, and Jaguars.  They have one of the toughest schedules in the league this year.
  • Eleven and six should be enough to win the East Division; a lower record would probably get them into the playoffs as a Wild Card.
  • Once in the playoffs, who knows?  Do they get inspired or do they run out of gas once again?
  • A trip to the Super Bowl is not out of the question but it is hardly a slam dunk.

In my post about the 2022 season last September I wrote that the Bills in 2022 will go 13 and 4 in the regular season.  They will win the AFC East, get a first-round bye, and take on the best the NFC has to offer on February 12th in Glendale, Arizona.  This will be the magic season.”  They went 13 and 3 and won the AFC East, but so much for the remainder of the prognostications.

There is talk about the Bills’ window of opportunity for a Super Bowl narrowing.  Allen has lots of years left in his career but he is surrounded by many veteran players with short-term contracts.  The team at this time does not have any flexibility with its salary cap.

Regardless, as a Bills fan I’ll be rooting and hoping for the best in 2023.  Go Bills!

Bet you might not remember this

A quote from a lawsuit filed by the NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, and NCAA in August 2012 as they challenged legalized sports betting in New Jersey, the first state to approve it:  “Gambling on amateur and professional sports threatens the integrity of those sports and is fundamentally at odds with the principle… that the outcome of collegiate and professional athletic contests must be determined, and must be perceived by the public as being determined, solely on the basis of honest athletic competition.”

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Former city comptroller Brad Lander (left) and Rep. Dan Goldman clash over Israel as Manhattan primary spotlights Democratic divide.

DAYS THE BUDGET IS LATE: 57

BRIDGING THE GAP: The debate over Israel is proving to be a wedge issue in the competitive primary between Rep. Dan Goldman and former city Comptroller Brad Lander. But the incumbent, who’s fighting for his political life, is making the argument that he and his challenger aren’t so different on the issue after all.

“We are both progressive Zionists who believe in Israel's right to exist as a Jewish state, and we both support a two-state solution to bring peace to the region,” Goldman said earlier today on a WNYC candidate forum. “It's disappointing to me that he's using this dog whistle attack, when in reality we really do share the same core principles.”

Lander — who, like Goldman, is Jewish and a Democrat — has positioned himself as more critical of Israel than the incumbent, and some in the party’s progressive wing have sided with him because of it. Lander and his supporters have repeatedly criticized Goldman for his ties to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the pro-Israel group that has become a major player in elections on both sides of the aisle — and a subject of intense debate — especially as the public has an increasingly negative view of Israel.

Progressives have targeted AIPAC in their messaging, a strategy Lander has also embraced. Goldman “can't unrig the system because he's part of this system, he takes money from Wall Street, from private equity, from crypto, from AIPAC,” Lander argued at the forum.

Like Goldman, some have raised concerns about the criticism of AIPAC, which has a mixed record in races it gets involved in. In an interview with POLITICO, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, one of a handful of Jewish governors, said he thinks the arguments against AIPAC spending have “been used cynically by some to try and silence certain voices, to try and say that certain people participating in politics shouldn’t count or should be viewed in a toxic way.”

Goldman, who is endorsed by AIPAC, has said he returned the money from the organization. And four weeks out from the primary, there’s no indication that AIPAC’s affiliated super PAC is going to spend in it.

Still, Israel remains a prominent issue in the race — no matter how much Goldman attempts to neutralize it. Last month, the incumbent rolled out an ad denouncing President Donald Trump and Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the war in Iran.

Public polling in the district, which covers parts of Manhattan and Brooklyn, has been scarce. But a recent Emerson College survey found Lander leading Goldman by more than 30 points. Lander is endorsed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani — whom Goldman did not support during the mayoral election — the Working Families Party and a slew of progressive officials and organizations. Goldman has the backing of Gov. Kathy Hochul and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, along with more than a dozen unions. Goldman also recently received the support of Hasidic leaders from Brooklyn’s Borough Park enclave.

As for Goldman and Lander’s similarities on Israel, the challenger pushed back, pointing to Goldman having “voted for every single U.S. military aid package to Israel.” In a back-and forth during the forum about the boycott, divest and sanctions movement — which both Goldman and Lander said they do not support — Goldman said he agrees with Lander that “Israelis aren't going to be safe until Palestinians are free,” to which the challenger retorted: “You don’t do anything to make it happen.”

“I believe in the vision of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, but it's not acting consistently with Jewish or democratic values right now, and it can't while it keeps occupying the West Bank and Gaza, and imposing apartheid on Palestinians,” Lander said. “The differences here are strong. If people want someone who is really going to fight to end Israel's occupation of the West Bank and Gaza, to make it so that Jewish New Yorkers and Muslim New Yorkers can work together instead of be divided from each other, and try to address the failures of U.S. foreign policy, the choice is clear.”

Much of the forum focused on Israel. When asked if he would vote for the “Block the Bombs Act,” which would prohibit the sale or transfer of military equipment to Israel until the country guarantees compliance with international law, Goldman said it is “not going to come to a vote, because it was written last summer as an effort to support a ceasefire, which was reached in October, and our laws enforce international human rights law already.” When pressed again, he said the legislation has “been overtaken by events, and I think there are other issues with ‘Block the Bombs’” but also that we need to "aggressively enforce international law against Bibi Netanyahu.”

Lander has called Israel’s actions in Gaza a “genocide.” Goldman said today it’s “really important that we move away from labels and terminology, especially for legal terms, and focus on how we can arrive at a two-state peaceful solution.”

The incumbent also expressed regret for voting to censure Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) in 2023 over her criticism of Israel, saying “there are better ways of dealing with that that I wish I had pursued” and “it was a very emotional time and sometimes emotion gets the best of you.”

“This is an incredibly, incredibly emotional issue right now for very, very many people, and what I'm worried about is that it is dividing all of us; it is dividing Muslims and Jews, it is dividing Jews,” Goldman said. “This is part of the reason why I disagree a little bit about what the critical issues are in this race. The critical issues are the ones facing the voters, and those are not necessarily what's going on 6,000 miles away, it's what's going on at their kitchen tables.” Madison Fernandez

From the Capitol

New York’s status as a blue state that includes several swing seats has made it a fulcrum for the national fight over redistricting.

REDISTRICTING REDUX: New York Democrats are expected to introduce bills by Friday to pave the way for new congressional lines in 2028, according to four people familiar with the talks.

Officials are weighing two constitutional amendments — one that would allow some minor tweaks, and another that would permit an aggressive Democratic gerrymander, according to the people, who were granted anonymity to discuss the closed-door conversations.

New York’s cumbersome process to change the state constitution restricts Democrats from redrawing House boundaries in time for the 2026 midterm elections. But House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, a Brooklyn Democrat, has made his home state’s House lines part of a broader, longer-term strategy to pick up seats in the closely divided chamber.

“This is a potentially existential matter for our democracy in the ‘28 elections,” said Assemblymember Micah Lasher, a Democratic House candidate who previously proposed an amendment to allow for mid-decade redistricting. “There’s a broad understanding that in the redistricting arms race New York can’t be on the sidelines.”

Read more from POLITICO Bill Mahoney and Nick Reisman. 

HOCHUL BACKS ALT ROCK BAND: The governor’s press shop sent out a release today that heaped effusive and exuberant praise on a ‘90s rock band.

The missive — uncharacteristic of the staid memos typically dispatched by the gov’s press shop — was sent to promote a state-sponsored watch party on Long Island for the U.S. vs. Paraguay World Cup match on June 12, which will feature a pregame concert from Third Eye Blind, or 3EB.

“Participation in the older, untouchable realm of nervous star-making could color a band's identity,” the governor’s office said. “In the case of 3EB, it often blurred the perception of their brilliant musical creations.”

It’s unclear if the band behind hits like "Semi-Charmed Life" and "Jumper,” which formed in San Francisco, feel the same way about the governor. In 2016, 3EB made headlines when their lead singer said he “repudiates” the Republican party and called Donald Trump’s then-presidential campaign deplorable. But there’s no record of him expressing similar passion — either in support or opposition — for New York’s 57th governor.

“3EB won wide success during a tumultuous group of years when the major-label recording industry was finally losing its grip on an enterprise that for decades it had dominated with steely efficiency,” Hochul’s office also said. “3EB now write, tour, record, and communicate in a fluid new world where their music continues to evolve naturally. Their exchange with their audience is unfiltered and being from the hub of tech, they are using it to develop a closer connection with their audience.”

Perhaps 3EB can release an updated version of its 2000 single “10 Days Late” to inspire lawmakers as they scramble to wrap up the nearly two-month late state budget. — Jason Beeferman

SHARPE SUBMITS: Libertarian Larry Sharpe has filed to run for the “Coalition Party” in this year’s gubernatorial campaign, making him the only candidate seeking to run without major party support.

The odds are long he’ll actually make the ballot — a reality he’s more than willing to concede.

“It doesn’t matter, we’re never going to make it. We’re going to be in lawsuits,” Sharpe said when asked how many signatures he submitted.

One individual familiar with the filing said he believes Sharpe submitted 1,600 of the required 45,000 signatures.

Third parties have become all but extinct in major races in New York since former Gov. Andrew Cuomo hiked the signature threshold from 15,000 in 2019. “Bobby Kennedy Jr. spent a million dollars,” Sharpe said of the now-health secretary’s 2024 presidential campaign. “He’s a fucking Kennedy and he couldn’t get on.”

The only other candidate to file for an additional ballot line in November was Bruce Blakeman, who submitted to add the “Vote Affordable” line to the Republican and Conservative ones he’s already running under. His campaign told the New York Post he submitted 66,345 signatures — not quite the number most experts say is needed to make a candidate immune from challenges. — Bill Mahoney

FROM CITY HALL

City Council member Shahana Hanif criticized two woman for attending a protest outside Gracie Mansion.

RAISING HELL: City Council member Shahana Hanif is under fire from critics for declaring on social media last night that two fellow Muslim women critical of Mayor Zohran Mamdani should be “condemned to Jahannam,” the Islamic concept of hell.

But Hanif, the first Muslim woman elected to the Council, says the criticism against her is overblown — and potentially bigoted.

“Let’s be serious: ‘Go to hell’ is a pretty common expression of frustration or disappointment … but the moment Arabic enters the conversation, suddenly people will act like I said something far more sinister,” Hanif told Playbook today.

Hanif delivered the broadside in an X post last night criticizing the two women, Anila Ali and Zeba Zebunnesa, for participating in a protest held outside Gracie Mansion to call on Gov. Kathy Hochul to remove Mamdani from office over the claim that he’s not doing enough to combat antisemitism.

“May Allah condemn you to Jahannam,” Hanif wrote in the post, which was responding to a message from Ali saying she and Zebunnesa were on their way to the Gracie demonstration.

Ali and Zebunnesa are organizers with a group called American Muslim & Multifaith Women’s Empowerment Council.

In the Quran, Jahannam is portrayed as a place of divine justice where sinners are sent to face punishment in the afterlife. Broken into seven descending levels reserved for different groups of sinners, Jahannam is considered the Islamic equivalent of hell, with punishments becoming more extreme the deeper one goes.

Elchanan Poupko, a rabbi and social media commentator, said Hanif crossed “a red line” with her tweet.

“Why is @ShahanaFromBK, an elected official, using religion for targeted harassment against a Muslim woman @anilaali, for exercising her constitutional rights protesting @ZohranKMamdani????” Poupko wrote on X. “This is unacceptable.”

A few hundred people participated in the protest outside Gracie Mansion last night, though no elected officials or mainstream Jewish groups were billed as being in attendance.

The event featured people brandishing Israeli flags and demanding that Mamdani, a vocal supporter of Palestinian rights, do more to combat antisemitism in New York. The event also featured more extreme, bigoted elements, including people shouting that Mamdani, an American citizen born in Uganda, should be deported.

Hanif pointed to the fact that rhetoric like that played out at the protest in justifying her Jahannam jab.

“I can and will criticize MAGA influencers joining a MAGA hate rally full of conspiratorial rhetoric and f-bombs,” Hanif said. — Chris Sommerfeldt 

IN OTHER NEWS

TARGETING GAP: A database of more than 1,200 lawsuits shows more than 93 percent of immigration enforcement arrests in New York and New Jersey targeted Latinos, despite the fact that they make up only 66 percent of immigrants without legal status. (THE CITY)

NO PLAYING AROUND: New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport and New York Attorney General Letitia James announced a joint investigation into FIFA’s ticket selling practices. (POLITICO)

‘I WAS HURT’: New York’s Legislature is considering bills to amend policies for imprisoned pregnant women after one gave birth while handcuffed in a Brooklyn courtroom. (Gothamist)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.