Is past prologue?  A look at results and turnout in recent presidential election years in Erie County

Since the 2024 presidential election is likely to be a re-run of the Biden/Trump election in 2020, it might be helpful for political aficionados to take a look back at what happened that year.  Spoiler alert:  Biden won handily in Erie County and in New York State.  Turnout was pretty good.

Nationally, of course, the presidential election in 2020 was hotly contested.  Election officials, including Republicans, pretty much everywhere agreed that the elections were free and fair and that Joe Biden’s winning margins, particularly in battleground states, were accurate.

Presidential elections usually produce the largest voter turnouts in the four-year election cycles.  In a county like Erie in a state like New York, where enrollment numbers favor Democrats, those healthy turnouts also assist other party candidates in congressional, state, and local elections.

The local election rosters are filled out.  The only Western New York legislative seats that may draw a primary are in NY26 and the 147th Assembly district.  Essentially the November ballot positions are set.  In most every case the enrollment numbers in the local congressional and state legislative districts lean strongly toward one party or the other.

Here are the highlights of the elections in Erie County in 2020:

  • Turnout was high.  A total of 476,913 votes were cast in Erie County.                                  
  • Joe Biden easily won the county, defeating Donald Trump 267,270 (56 percent) to 197,552 (41 percent).  Biden won the City of Buffalo by a 4-to-1 margin.  He also carried the City of Lackawanna, Amherst, Aurora, Cheektowaga and the Town of Tonawanda.  Biden’s vote total in the county was nearly 52,000 higher than Hillary Clinton’s numbers in 2016.  Trump only increased his number of votes by a little over 9,000 votes compared to 2016.
  • Brian Higgins easily won the election in NY26 while Chris Jacobs did likewise in NY27.
  • In the state legislative districts the results followed the voter registration pattern in the districts.  The Democrats and Republicans each won two of the Senate districts based in Erie County.  In the Assembly races Democrats won six of the nine districts located in whole or part in Erie County.

Here are the highlights of the elections in Erie County in 2016:

  • Turnout was high.  431,537 votes were cast.                                  
  • Clinton won the county, defeating Donald Trump 215,456 (50 percent) to 188,303 (44 percent).  She won in the City of Buffalo by a 4-to-1 margin while also carrying Lackawanna, Amherst, and Tonawanda.
  • Brian Higgins easily won in NY26 with Chris Collins also winning by a comfortable margin.
  • In the state legislative districts Republicans won three of the four Senate seats and five of the nine Erie County based districts.

The high turnouts in the presidential years dwarf the other years of the election cycle.  In 2023, when the primary office on the ballot was county executive, there were 204,883 votes cast.  In 2022, a gubernatorial election year, turnout was 346,087.  In 2021, when most of the attention was on the race for mayor of Buffalo, countywide turnout was just 237,182.

As the TV ads for personal injury attorneys say, “prior results do not guarantee a similar outcome.” TV Nonetheless, history does provide a basis for analyzing such things as turnout and where each party sees its best voting opportunities.  It is going to be a long and difficult political year.

X/Twitter   @kenkruly

Threads   kenkruly

Related articles

B-ROLL: Governor Hochul Visits New York Common Pantry in Harlem

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IoC-zjdEKkA Governor Kathy Hochul today declared a state...

U.S., China Reach Trade Truce as Trump & Xi Meet for First Time in Years

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping...

I’ve found the secret sauce for Democrats to win back power



Rather than belabor you today with the latest Trump outrages, I want to share with you conclusions I’ve drawn from my conversation yesterday with Zohran Mamdani (you can find it here and at the bottom of this piece) about why he has a very good chance of being elected mayor of New York City on Tuesday.

He has five qualities that I believe are likely to succeed in almost any political race across America today. If a 34-year-old state assemblyman representing Astoria, Queens, who was born in Uganda and calls himself a democratic socialist, can get this far and likely win, others can as well — but they have to understand and be capable of utilizing his secret sauce.

Here are the five ingredients:

  1. Authenticity. Mamdani is the real thing. He’s not trying to be someone other than who he is, and the person he is comes through clear as a bell. I’ve been around politicians for most of my life (even ran once for governor of Massachusetts) and have seen some who are slick, some who are clever, some who are witty, some who are stiff, but rarely have I come across someone with as much authenticity as Mamdani. Authenticity is the single most important quality voters are looking for now: someone who is genuine. Who’s trustworthy because they project credibility and solidity. Whose passion feels grounded in reality.
  2. Concern for average working people. Mamdani isn’t a policy wonk who spouts 10-point plans that cause people’s eyes to glaze over. Nor is he indifferent to policy. Listen to his answers to my questions and you’ll hear a lot about the needs of average working people. That’s his entire focus. Many politicians say they’re on the side of average working people, but Mamdani has specific ideas for making New York City more affordable. I’m not sure they’ll all work, but I’m sure voters are responding to him in part because his focus is indisputable and his ideas are clear and understandable.
  3. Willingness to take on the powerful and the wealthy. He doesn’t hesitate to say he’ll raise taxes on the wealthy to pay for what average working people need. You might think this would be standard fare for Democrats, but it’s not. These days, many are scared to propose anything like this for fear they’ll lose campaign funding from big corporations and the rich. But Mamdani’s campaign isn’t being financed by big corporations or the rich. Because of New York City’s nearly four-decade-old clean elections system that matches small-dollar donations with public money, Mamdani has had nearly $13 million of government funds to run a campaign against tens of millions of dollars that corporate and Wall Street Democrats — and plenty of Republicans — have spent to boost Democratic former governor Andrew Cuomo. We need such public financing across the nation.
  4. Inspiration. Many people are inspired by Mamdani. Over 90,000 New Yorkers are now going door-to-door canvassing for him (including my 17-year-old granddaughter). Why is he so inspiring? Again, watch our conversation. It’s not only his authenticity but also his energy, his good-heartedness, and his optimism. At a time when so many of us are drenched in the daily darkness of Trump, Mamdani’s positivity feels like sunshine. It lifts one up. It makes politics almost joyful. He gives it a purpose and meaning that causes people to want to be involved.
  5. Cheerfulness. Which brings me to the fifth quality that has made this improbable candidate into a front-runner: his remarkable cheerfulness. Watch his face during our discussion. He smiled or laughed much of the time. This wasn’t empty-headed euphoria or “morning in America” campaign rubbish. It’s directly connected to a thoughtfulness that’s rare in a politician, especially one nearing the end of a campaign — who’s had to answer the same questions hundreds if not thousands of times. He exudes a buoyancy and hope that’s infectious. It’s the opposite of the scowling Trump. It is what Americans want and need, especially now.

There’s obviously much more to it, but I think these five qualities — authenticity, a focus on the needs of average working families, a willingness to take on the rich and powerful in order to pay for what average working families need, the capacity to inspire, and a cheerfulness and buoyancy — will win elections, not only in New York City but across America.

Mamdani hasn’t won yet, and New York’s Democratic establishment is doing whatever it can to stop him (Michael Bloomberg, New York City’s billionaire former mayor, just put $1.5 million into a super PAC supporting Cuomo’s bid and urged New Yorkers to vote for Cuomo).

If Mamdani wins, his success should be a lesson for all progressives and all Democrats across America.

- YouTube www.youtube.com


  • Robert Reich is a professor of public policy at Berkeley and former secretary of labor. His writings can be found at https://robertreich.substack.com/.
  • Robert Reich's new memoir, Coming Up Short, can be found wherever you buy books. You can also support local bookstores nationally by ordering the book at bookshop.org.

House Democrats Send Letter to Trump at ‘What Remains of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave’ Demanding Stop to ‘Reckless Vanity Project’

A group of sixty House Democrats led by Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) sent a letter to President Donald Trump Thursday -- addressed to "What Remains of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave."

The post House Democrats Send Letter to Trump at ‘What Remains of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave’ Demanding Stop to ‘Reckless Vanity Project’ first appeared on Mediaite.