What states could delay how quickly the 2024 election is called?

(NewsNation) — In 2020, the presidential election wasn’t called for four days due to the time it took to count ballots in states across the country. Four years later, several states could determine when the country will know whether former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris has won the 2024 election.

Trump and Harris remain engaged in a too-close-to-call battle with two weeks remaining before Election Day. With the two candidates polling neck and neck in all seven swing states, election forecasters can envision several scenarios where the race could be determined in either hours or days, with possible legal challenges to follow.

Pennsylvania secured the White House for President Joe Biden in 2020 on the Saturday after Election Day. NewsNation’s partner Decision Desk HQ was the first organization to call the election for Biden just before 9 a.m. ET that day.

The Keystone State has changed how it counts votes following delays in the 2020 election, but this year, Pennsylvania and other states like Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona could determine when we know who will become the next president.

“There are quicker paths, and then, there are dayslong paths,” said Drew McCoy, the president of NewsNation partner Decision Desk HQ.

Georgia again key to election results

Trump is targeting Georgia this cycle after Biden flipped the state blue for the first time in 28 years by a margin of 11,179 votes.

Election officials recounted the votes twice in 2020, each time reaffirming the original count in favor of Biden.

“We have now counted legally cast ballots three times, and the results remain unchanged,” Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said after the third recount.

Trump allegedly called Raffensberger and asked him to find enough votes to reverse the results in his favor. The former president is currently charged in state court for trying to subvert the state’s 2020 election.

This year, Georgia has already collected a record number of early ballots as both Harris and Trump continue to campaign around the state.

Despite the spotlight on Georgia, McCoy believes that the state could be among the first called on election night.

McCoy said Trump’s easiest path to the presidency is flipping Georgia and Pennsylvania. If Harris can keep Georgia blue and win North Carolina, that dramatically changes the map, he said.

North Carolina early voting records

Trump won North Carolina by 1.3% in 2020, and four years later, and McCoy believes Trump needs to carry it again to win in November.

A Democrat hasn’t won the state since former President Barack Obama in 2008, but polls have shown that Harris is within the margin of error with two weeks remaining before the election.

Like Georgia, North Carolina has experienced record levels of early voting despite residents trying to recover from widespread damage caused by the deadly Hurricane Helene.

By McCoy’s estimation, Georgia and North Carolina could be called sometime between 10 p.m. and midnight on election night, which could set the stage for what happens in the rest of the country.

Will Pennsylvania’s count be delayed again?

Pennsylvania state law does not permit mail-in ballots to be counted before Election Day, which led directly to the four days needed to determine a winner in 2020.

It became the epicenter of Trump’s “Stop The Steal” campaign in which he alleged mail-in ballots that arrived after Election Day should not be counted.

The campaign mounted a series of legal challenges claiming that Republican observers were kept too far from the voting tabulation process in cities like Philadelphia, The Associated Press reported. A record number (375,000) of mail-in ballots were received in the state in 2020, with the majority of those coming from Democratic voters, according to CBS News.

Republican Secretary of Commonwealth Al Schmidt told CBS News that due to state laws, he believes the vote-counting process could still take time to ensure an accurate result. But since 2020, Pennsylvania has improved its vote-counting process as new machinery has been introduced that processes ballots more quickly, Schmidt said.

“Our counties are working night and day to count their voters’ votes,” Schmidt told CBS News. “They’re doing so as quickly as they can and with integrity.”

McCoy believes that while vote counting in Pennsylvania’s 67 counties will require careful attention, he expects results to trickle in during the overnight hours and into Wednesday morning.

But he said the disparity between the state’s Republican and Democratic areas could create some drama along the way.

“It’s not unexpected that there might be some changes in the lead over the course of the night,” McCoy told NewsNation.

Mail-in voting in Arizona

Arizona, where roughly 90% of ballots were mailed in during the 2020 election, historically takes longer to call due to the time it takes to determine which ballots can be counted based on the postmark.

Biden won Arizona by just 0.3% in 2020. Maricopa County, where much of the Phoenix metro area is located, is expected to garner the crux of the election attention four years after Biden won the county by 45,109 votes.

In 2020, after Trump claimed the election was stolen, Arizona Republicans commissioned a hand recount of Maricopa County’s 2.1 million ballots, which affirmed Biden had defeated Trump.

Election experts expect another close race in Arizona, keeping interest in the state high.

Delays could push the race into a critical position if the state is needed to secure victory for either candidate.

Other factors on Election Day

Voter turnout could also help determine the timeframe for a winner, according to NewsNation political editor and “The Hill Sunday” host Chris Stirewalt.

Turnout numbers for the upcoming election should be known by 9 p.m. ET on election night, which could provide clues about which candidates could benefit most and when a winner will be determined.

Stirewalt also believes that the scrutiny around election officials in 2020 could spill over to this election, which might slow things down. He also expects legal challenges to be mounted again, which would also lead to delays.

With so many factors in play, establishing any sense of certainty proves to be difficult.

“If we’re going to be very honest, then we have to say we don’t really know,” Stirewalt told NewsNation.  “We have to be prepared for a really quick night or a long week, but we certainly can’t rule either of those out.”

Related articles

Hochul promotes her agenda with state-funded ad campaign

Gov. Kathy Hochul does not appear in the ads directly though it encourages people to visit a New York run website touting her accomplishments towards more affordable housing.

HOCHUL’S AD CAMPAIGN: Gov. Kathy Hochul’s office is using taxpayer money to fund an advertising blitz promoting her agenda, brushing up against a ban on governors appearing in promotional material.

State law prohibits elected officials from appearing in ads paid for with state funds.

Hochul doesn’t directly appear in any of the ads. Instead, they encourage people to visit a state-run website where she’s prominently featured talking about wanting to cut red tape to build affordable housing.

“They’re skirting the very intent of what that law was meant to do, and that’s using taxpayer dollars to promote the image or likeness of the governor,” Republican Assemblymember Matt Slater said. “It’s clearly something that needs to be looked into so we can figure out what consequences she should be facing if she is in fact violating the law.”

The ads have appeared over the past week on Facebook, YouTube, and at least one billboard. The governor’s office said a FOIL request would be required to see the full scope.

One example is a YouTube commercial that simply states “Let Them Build” and directs people to the state’s website. The Executive Chamber has spent between $10,000 and $15,000 on that ad — one of 21 to air on YouTube or Google over the past week. The ad has been viewed one million times.

"The state routinely engages in awareness and education campaigns on critical policy priorities and this campaign was designed in compliance with all ethics laws,” said Hochul spokesperson Jen Goodman.

Reinvent Albany’s Rachael Fauss said that if the 20-year-old law had been written today, “it probably would take into consideration” campaigns like this.

“From a technical perspective, she may not be violating the law,” she said. “But I think the spirit of the law is to not have the governor’s likeness be promoted through the use of taxpayer funds. That was the intent of it. Unfortunately, this is an area where the law hasn’t kept up with the way people consume media and ads these days.”

The ban on advertising came about after former Gov. George Pataki ran state-funded commercials during an election year in which he encouraged people to register in a new healthcare program. Ethics reforms passed as part of former Gov. Eliot Spitzer’s inaugural agenda included language prohibiting the practice.

Hochul isn’t the first elected official to brush up against the intent of the law in recent months. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s likeness has appeared on WiFi kiosks, a practice that’s permitted since the city is given the screentime for free. And Mamdani, unlike Hochul, isn’t up for reelection anytime soon.

“She’s got plenty of campaign funds that she could be using to pay for these things,” Slater said. “What she’s doing right now is spending taxpayer money to enhance her image when she’s on the ballot this year.” — Bill Mahoney

FROM THE CAPITOL

Attorney General Letitia James appeared in Albany this morning to support regulating algorithmic pricing legislation.

PRICING POLITICS: Democratic state Attorney General Letitia James is throwing her support behind a bill meant to crack down on retailers’ use of algorithmic pricing.

James was in Albany this morning to back legislation meant to halt the practice, which uses a consumer’s personal data to set individually tailored prices.

The bill, backed by Assemblymember Michaelle Solages and Deputy Senate Majority Leader Mike Gianaris, is part of a broader push being made by elected officials to address peoples’ pocketbook concerns.

“This online pricing model hits hardest where it hurts the most — food, medicine, diapers and other essentials,” James said at a news conference. “We all have all been focused on the issue of affordability across this state.” Nick Reisman

FROM CITY HALL

Former NYPD sergeant Tim Pearson (third from left) served as a top mayoral aide to former Mayor Eric Adams.

EVIDENCE HUNT: The former NYPD sergeant accusing former mayoral aide Tim Pearson of sexual harassment wants to get her hands on the evidence that prompted the Mamdani administration to stop paying for Pearson’s legal bills.

In 2024, the former sergeant, Roxanne Ludemann, sued Pearson, a confidant and top adviser to former Mayor Eric Adams, accusing him of sexually harassing her at work and then professionally retaliating against her when she rejected his overtures.

Thanks to an unusual arrangement greenlit by Adams’ Law Department, Pearson received taxpayer-funded private lawyers to defend him against Ludemann’s suit. But Mamdani’s corporation counsel, Steve Banks, announced last week that he had rescinded Pearson’s arrangement, citing unspecified “new evidence” that warranted terminating it.

In a court filing late Friday, John Scola, an attorney representing Ludemann, demanded that the Law Department provide his client with access to the evidence in question, arguing it’s relevant to her ongoing case.

“Produce all documents, records, evidence, reports, memoranda, and materials of any kind that constitute, refer to, or relate to the ‘new evidence’ relied upon, reviewed, considered, or referenced by corp counsel in making its determination to decline or withdraw representation of Defendant Timothy Pearson in this matter,” Scola wrote in the filing.

Also last week, Banks terminated a similar arrangement that allowed Jeffrey Maddrey, an Adams ally and former NYPD chief of department, to receive taxpayer-funded attorneys in the Pearson matter, too. Maddrey is accused by Ludemann of helping Pearson retaliate against her.

Scola’s filing demanded access to the information that prompted Banks to slash Maddrey’s arrangement as well.

Pearson and Maddrey, who resigned from city government in late 2024 after being ensnared in unrelated corruption investigations, have denied any wrongdoing.

A Law Department spokesperson did not comment when asked today about Scola’s demand.

New York City taxpayers have already paid more than $620,000 to cover Pearson’s legal tab alone. — Chris Sommerfeldt


FINANCE SHUFFLE: Mamdani is zeroing in on a pick to run the Department of Finance, a normally under-the-radar agency that has taken on new prominence amid the mayor’s push to raise property taxes.

Mamdani’s administration is in talks to hire Richard Lee for the job, according to three people with knowledge of the discussions who were granted anonymity to discuss an internal personnel matter.

Lee currently serves as director of the City Council’s Division of Finance. That means his move to Mamdani’s finance department would leave Council Speaker Julie Menin without her top budget adviser amid increasingly tense negotiations over the city’s $127 billion spending plan for the upcoming fiscal year.

The Council is conducting budget oversight hearings throughout the month to better ascertain how city agencies are planning to operate amid a precarious fiscal situation. The city is facing a projected multi-billion dollar deficit over the next fiscal year, and Mamdani’s administration is relying on cash reserves, optimistic revenue projections and an increase in property taxes to bridge that gap and balance the spending plan for the fiscal year beginning July 1.

Increasing levies on property owners would require approval from the Council, and Menin has dismissed the idea as a nonstarter. She has argued the city needs to look for other ways to cut costs beforehand. The mayor, by contrast, says drastic steps like property levy hikes can be avoided if Albany gives the city the authority to raise local taxes on millionaires and corporations — proposals Menin has declined to support.

Lee, should he ultimately join Mamdani’s administration, would be working for the finance department as it tabulates a key variable — the assessed value of property in New York City — which helps determine how much revenue the city collects from owners each year.

Read the story from Joe Anuta and Chris Sommerfeldt in POLITICO Pro

AROUND NEW YORK

MACHIAVELLIAN MAMDANI: The mayor forced his political will on fellow lefty lawmakers, including by squashing Tiffany Cabán’s congressional prospects and threatening Chi Ossé. (The New York Times)

ADAMS OFFICIAL UNDER PROBE: The former commissioner of the city’s probation department under Mayor Eric Adams is being investigated by the Manhattan district attorney. (Gothamist)

MAYOR DINES WITH KNICKS: Mamdani broke his Saturday Ramadan fast with Senegalese Knicks player Mo Diawara. (GQ)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.

UB HIV prevention expert publishes commentary in The Lancet

Gloria Aidoo-Frimpong’s invited commentary discusses the significance of a major...

New Highmark Stadium Exterior Paneling ✅ #shorts #nfl

Subscribe to the Buffalo Bills YT Channel: https://bufbills.co/2Yhjq9j For...

Two WNY Schools Win Grants to Boost Student Health

The American Heart Association and the National Football League...