Some facts, observations, and heard-on-the-streets

Summer seems to finally be here, so it’s time for a primary election.  Tuesday, June 23rd is the date.  The key primaries in Western New York are all on the Democratic side, for state comptroller; state senator in the 61st district; member of the state Assembly in the 149th district; and in the 23rd Congressional District, currently represented by Republican Nick Langworthy.

Here are some facts, observations, and heard-on-the-streets:

We are just days away from an event in Washington where various pugilists will attempt to beat their opponents senseless on a multi-million-dollar stage on the grounds of the White House.  Some folks might want to see such events to be faceoffs between the leaders of Congress or perhaps intraparty fights.  The attendees (and I suppose one or two TV networks), however, will watch an event involving people who actually get paid to do such things.

Soon after that event there will be Donald Trump produced events leading up to America’s 250th birthday.  Most professional entertainers have bowed out of participating.  Perhaps Lara Trump could sing the national anthem.

New York’s 2026-27 budget was finally completed last week.   Spending is up considerably over last year.  Childcare services are expanded.  Car insurance costs will hopefully come down.  Deadlines for climate improvement benchmarks are pushed back.  Small rebate checks will be issued sometime before the election.

The Legislature took the first step toward redrawing congressional lines prior to the 2028 elections.  This will, if approved by voters, allow an unprecedented second re-drawing of the lines following the 2020 census.  Democrats could pick up some of the seven current Republican seats in the House.  The same Republicans who will scream in opposition were evidently fine with such activity by Republicans in Texas, Missouri, Tennessee, Ohio, Alabama, and Florida.  The Supreme Court has sanctioned mid-decade partisan redistricting.  Republicans scooped up additional seats while in many cases dismantling districts that have been held for decades by Black members of the House. 

The Legislature for the second year in a row voted to create a new state Judicial district that just includes Erie County.  The other seven counties now in the 8th Judicial District would remain there.  Assemblyman Jon Rivera sponsored the legislation.  The bill approved by the Legislature last year was pocket-vetoed by Governor Kathy Hochul.

The bill assigns current Supreme Court Justices to the districts.  Here is the breakdown.

Fourteenth Judicial District (incorrectly identified in the Buffalo News as the 16th District):Deborah A. ChimesEmilio ColaiacovoJohn DelmonteDaniel J. Ferlong (misspelled in the bill (Furlong); retired July 2025Gerald Greenan IIIDeborah A. HaendigesCraig D. HannahJohn B. LicataJoseph LorigoAmy C. MartocheEdward A. PaceCatherine Nugent PanepintoDonna M. SiwekMary SliszRaymond W. WalterDennis E. Ward

Paul B. Wojtaszek

Eighth Judicial District:Grace M. HanlonDiane DevlinFrank CarusoPaula Feroleto

Frank A. Sedita III

Party conventions in August will select four candidates for the Supreme Court in the current 8th Judicial District.

New districts were also created in Monroe and Onondaga Counties. 

Speaking of Justices, and you are reading it here first, Governor Hochul on Thursday announced the appointment of 28 justices, including Debra Givens, who is currently on the Court of Claims and will now officially be a Supreme Court Justice; and Mara McCabe, who is currently an Assistant District Attorney in Erie County.  She was appointed to the Court of Claims.

State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli released a report last week concerning on-time service and such other matters as farebox revenues for bus services in four upstate authorities.  The Niagara Frontier Transportation Authority receives 73 percent of its bus system operating funds from the state and Erie County.  The report also notes that the NFTA has a goal of 84 percent on-time bus performance, but the Authority has only met that goal twice in a ten-year period.

DiNapoli has a Democratic primary for the first time since he has held the office, dating back to 2007.  DiNapoli has done considerable TV advertising recently.  Only one of his two opponents (Raj Goyle) appears to be spending on TV in the Buffalo area.  DiNapoli will win the primary by a comfortable margin.

Both incumbent Senator Jeremy Zellner and his opponent Assemblyman Jon Rivera also have a heavy TV ad schedule along with mailings and lit drops.  Total spending in this race may very well top $1.5 million, with approximately 40 to 50 percent of the spending financed by the state’s matching funds program.  Both Zellner and Rivera were approved for additional state funds last week.

The three-way Democratic primary for the 149th Assembly seat also involves unprecedented spending for a local primary.  Geoff Kelly of Investigative Post has a detailed review of the candidates and their stands on the issues.  Who are the candidates for the NY 149th District Assembly seat? : Investigative Post

Twenty towns in Erie County are included in the 23rd Congressional District, which will hold a Democratic primary.  The endorsed candidate is Dr. Aaron Gies.  Kevin Stocker is also running.

There are a small number of Democratic, Republican, and Conservative county committee races in Erie County.

TV advertising may help with voter turnout but much of Erie County will only have the Democratic state comptroller seat and one other race on the ballot.   Overall turnout is likely to be in the 12-15 percent range, with somewhat higher numbers in the 61st Senate District and the 149th Assembly District.

I agree with Mark Scott’s Substack post suggesting that the Buffalo News should retire its print sports section.  Opinion pieces provide some information for interested fans, but two-day-old standings, box scores, and other sport details printed mostly in small print are stale news.  Scott suggests that the News should replace their sports section with “two pages of timely enterprise stories about the Bills and Sabres written by beat reporters and columnists.”   I would add that it would be nice to see some stories about the Buffalo Bisons (which the News seems to treat as if they don’t exist) and the Bandits.

Early voting begins on Saturday, June 13th.  Here is a link to the Erie County Board of Elections detailing locations and hours for the voting, which will extend through June 21:  EARLYVOTING 26-Kids522.pdf

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John Fetterman poised to flip and become Republican ‘majority-maker’: ex-chief of staff



Sen. John Fetterman's increasingly independent political moves are drawing concern from Senate colleagues and raising questions about whether the Pennsylvania Democrat might eventually leave his party.

Fetterman said last week he would formally switch his party affiliation if Democrats make opposition to Israel part of their official platform — the first time he's laid out specific conditions for departing – and he pointed to recent contested primaries as evidence the party is shifting toward candidates who are "intensely anti-Israel," not just critical of its policies.

One Democratic senator, speaking anonymously to NOTUS, said, "I am concerned" about the prospect of Fetterman switching parties unexpectedly.

Fetterman has also set up a joint fundraising committee with Republican Sen. Dave McCormick (R-PA), an arrangement that struck colleagues as unusual. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) said he'd "never seen it before." Rep. Chris Deluzio (D-PA), a progressive who has left open the possibility of challenging Fetterman in 2028, called the move "crazy stuff," arguing it helps Republicans in battleground Pennsylvania races.

Fetterman brushed off the arrangement as "nothing sinister," rooted in shared state interests, and fired back at Deluzio over the congressman's earlier campaign donation to Graham Platner, the Maine Senate candidate who dropped out amid a sexual assault allegation he denies.

The senator has increasingly clashed with his party over Israel, the Iran war, and border security, and recently expressed regret for once calling to eliminate the filibuster, praising former Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema for opposing its removal.

His standing among Pennsylvania Democrats has slipped sharply — a Quinnipiac poll found his approval at just 19% among Democrats, with 52 percent of voters overall saying they want him to leave the party.

Adam Jentleson, Fetterman's former chief of staff, said he believes Fetterman might switch parties "in order to stay relevant," particularly if Democrats win a narrow Senate majority in November and Fetterman could become a decisive vote. Jentleson also warned Fetterman could side with Republicans on a future Supreme Court nomination.

“I think, if he is the majority-maker, he will flip, because it would give him a massive amount of attention,” said Jentleson, who last year expressed concerns about Fetterman's mental health.

Other Democrats pushed back on the switching narrative. Sen. Peter Welch noted Fetterman "votes Democratic all the time," while Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-NM) urged him to stay, saying his positions still align more with Democrats than Republicans on balance.

“I would just encourage him to stay,” Heinrich said. “I think you can have policy differences, but on balance, with the exception of one or two issues, when you look at what he cares about, I think that looks a lot more like the Democratic Party than the Republican Party. He’s always, always welcome in our caucus.”

Ex-Trump official pinpoints exact moment Trump’s ‘mentality changed’ — for the worse



Joe Kent, the former senior intelligence official who resigned from the Trump administration in protest of the Iran war, made a stunning claim Monday that “something” happened to President Donald Trump that “changed” him from that point forward.

“Something in the late spring, early summer time frame happened – I don’t know what happened,” Kent said during an appearance on the “Julian Dorey Podcast” published on Monday.

“I can’t tell you why his mentality changed, but it went from, ‘we’re gonna create the most space we can for [Iran] negotiations and we’re not interested in the war,’ to, ‘okay, we’re gonna support the Israelis, do Midnight Hammer and we’re gonna continue to entertain this.’”

A key pledge of Trump during his 2024 campaign was that he would not send Americans “to fight and die in stupid foreign wars that never end,” reiterating that promise during his victory speech: “I’m not going to start a war,” he said.

And yet, in late February, Trump launched Operation Epic Fury with a large-scale attack on Iran that months later now risks sparking a broader war.

Kent, who's long championed Trump's anti-interventionist rhetoric, said he was confused by the president's apparent shift, and while he could narrow down roughly when it happened, he still couldn't say what caused it.

“I don’t know what happened. And so for me, when something like that happens, from an intelligence background, you do have to step back and look at what else could be influencing the president,” Kent said.

“Did he just change his mind? For him to go through with [launching the Iran war], ultimately, I do think there’s potentially other factors there: so what could those other factors be? Why would a president make decisions that he doesn’t agree with?”

Other conservative figures have speculated as to why Trump launched a war against Iran despite his frequent anti-war rhetoric, including prominent conservative figure Tucker Carlson, who in April floated a disturbing theory that a “blackmail” operation perpetrated by the Israeli government could potentially have forced the president’s hand.

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GOP lawmaker hammered by Dem during fiery hearing on Trump debt: ‘Take responsibility!’



Rep. Jim McGovern (D-MA) unloaded on the Republican Budget Committee Chairman on Monday over the climbing debt under President Donald Trump's spending policies.

The clash came at a House Rules Committee hearing, where McGovern grilled Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-TX) over a budget resolution that Democrats say adds $4.7 trillion to the national debt with no offsets.

"I love you, Republicans. You don't take responsibility for anything," McGovern said. "You control the House, you control the Senate, you control the White House, I think you control the Supreme Court, and nothing is your responsibility."

In 2024, Arrington had told the same committee that "not paying for our spending is not only irresponsible, but it is also irrational."

McGovern asked Arrington to confirm that the national debt had risen $3.3 trillion since Trump took office — from $36.2 trillion to $39.5 trillion. Arrington insisted that the statistic was "misleading" before getting pushback from Rep. Morgan McGarvey (D-KY).

"The debt of this country from George Washington through Bill Clinton was about $5.7 trillion," McGarvey noted. "The debt from George W. Bush and Donald Trump alone is nearly double that."

McGovern then pressed Arrington on whether the resolution's deficit spending could really be called an emergency, zeroing in on the bill's tax cuts for wealthy Americans.

"Was it an emergency to give tax breaks to billionaires and millionaires?" McGovern demanded. "Because that was not paid for either."

"It was, in fact," Arrington shot back.

"Okay. All right. So we just have a disagreement," McGovern replied. "You think an emergency is making sure that millionaires and billionaires get tax cuts, big corporations — I just disagree with that. That's a fundamental values question."

"I didn't say that, just for the record," Arrington argued.

McGovern also challenged Arrington over a provision directing $60 billion in new deficit spending toward the Iran conflict, noting the Pentagon already had $75.7 billion in unspent defense funds from a package passed last July.

He called it "irresponsible to spend another $60 billion in taxpayer dollars on Trump's war when you already have $75 billion available."

When asked why the resolution contained nothing to lower everyday costs for American families, Arrington blamed the previous administration.

"I would say that the first step in unwinding the cost of living crisis that was created by the failed policies of your party was to stop the wild, reckless, unbridled spending," Arrington said.

"It sounds like we're back to 'let's blame Joe Biden,'" McGovern replied.

"When it comes to war and tax cuts for the wealthy and big corporations, you guys trip over yourselves to spend tax dollars with no offsets," McGovern charged. "This is your MO. But when it comes to helping American families, Republicans think it would be wasteful spending."

"They can't afford their rent, can't afford to buy homes, childcare costs are out of control, health care costs are out of control," the Democrat said at the close of his remarks. "They wanna know why the hell we aren't focused on that. And instead, we're focused on giving the well-off and the well-connected even more."

"I think people have had it," he added.