Mark Poloncarz

President Donald Trump has declared his intention to campaign on the deeply unpopular "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which one analyst said should be an ominous sign for how he views next year's midterm elections.

Both the president and the domestic policy legislation he pressured Republicans to pass are unpopular with voters, but Salon columnist Heath Digby Parton said his midterm strategy was only risky insofar as next year's elections are free and fair.

"Trump is a man with an unprecedented track record of trying to overturn elections," Parton wrote. "There was a time when many Americans thought his behavior following the 2020 election and the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol was so egregious that he should be prosecuted and, at the very least, never be allowed near elective office again. Those days are long past, and Trump’s return to the presidency has emboldened him."

"While his decimation of any semblance of Justice Department independence is troubling," she added, it’s downright spine-chilling when it comes to elections."

The president has an eager and obliging attorney general in Pam Bondi, and her deputies are his former personal lawyers, and Trump has tasked them with rooting out the types of election fraud that he has baselessly claimed cost him the 2020 contest – which Parton says could give him to pretext to tamper with future results.

"Back in March, he signed an executive order requiring voters to present proof of citizenship to vote and all ballots to be received by election day, not simply postmarked as many states allow," Parton wrote. "He also called on states to share voter lists and prosecute election crimes, threatening to pull federal funding if they refuse. Ostensibly to prevent fraud, he ordered states to cease using barcode or QR code in the vote counting process, which would bar many jurisdictions from using voting machines. Trump and his minions fatuously insisted this was being done to restore faith in the electoral process — faith that was shaken by his 'Big Lie.'"

Those orders are being challenged in court, but the Justice Department continues to follow up on his directives, and Parton said that uncertainty could give Trump and his Republican allies space to tamper with election outcomes they don't like.

"All of this was foreshadowed by Project 2025, which laid out plans to create unprecedented federal interference in the way elections are managed," she wrote. "Based on Trump’s behavior and how closely he and the administration are following the Project 2025 blueprint, it’s not paranoid to expect, at minimum, court challenges to midterm election results in races that would shift the balance of power. And I wouldn’t bet too much money on the courts being as straightforwardly dismissive as they were the last time."

Parton expects Republicans to appeal losing results all the way up to the U.S. Supreme Court, which could cast congressional majorities in doubt until the 2028 presidential election is already underway.

"The midterms are only 16 months away, which is both a short time and an eternity," Parton wrote. "When it comes Trump’s thirst for absolute power and penchant for corruption makes it clear: Vigilance is a necessity."