Heart & Soul Conversation #29…..How’s The Weather Inside?

Faced with the possibility that the Republican Party is headed for a wipeout in the November midterms, White House insiders are attempting to head off a Friday announcement by President Donald Trump of new tariffs.

Trump is preparing to impose what the Financial Times is calling a "barrage" of fresh tariffs on dozens of countries this week, but his own advisers are urgently counseling him to step back from the brink, the outlet's report states. Senior officials worry that resurrecting his trade war—which delivered economic shocks and voter backlash in his first term—could prove "catastrophic" heading into elections Republicans are already struggling to win.

According to the report, "Behind the scenes, senior officials have been counseling the president to maintain stability with trading partners and honor the deals that Washington struck with them to reduce their tariffs in 2025, according to two people familiar with the matter.”

The timing is particularly fraught. Existing 10 percent tariffs adopted after a Supreme Court decision in February struck others down are set to expire Friday and some in the White House are engineering probes "of forced labor practices, allowing Trump to avoid using the emergency authorities knocked down by the Supreme Court."

The prospect of renewed tariffs collides with an already-deteriorating economic landscape. The escalating Iran conflict has roiled energy markets, pushing gas prices back above $4 per gallon. Voters are already furious about the cost of living and recent polling found two-thirds of Americans disapprove of how Trump is managing affordability.

Adding tariff hikes to soaring energy prices risks "inflaming voter frustration over the high cost of living," a sign that even Trump's own team recognizes the political danger, the report notes.

"This does not mean that tariff hikes are in the rear-view mirror," Wendy Cutler, a former U.S. trade official now at the Asia Society Policy Institute, told the Financial Times. "But it does suggest that a more cautious approach is now called for, particularly in the lead up to the midterm elections."

With the war with Iran spiraling and public opinion about the military excursion at an all-time low, a leading scholar on tyranny warned on Tuesday that Donald Trump’s people may do the unthinkable.

Late Monday, Fox News host Laura Ingraham warned the president that “the clock is ticking” as supporters lose patience with the war that has been unpopular since the U.S. attacked in late February.

According to historian Timothy Snyder, whose book "On Tyranny" is often cited when discussing the Trump administration, a false flag terror attack in the U.S. that can be blamed on Iran is not beyond the realm of possibilities as the president's approval numbers slide.

On X he wrote, “Trump is pursuing this war in the HOPE that Iran carries out an act of terror in the US. And even if it doesn’t, which I doubt it will, consider the possibility that Trump's people would fake one. Please consider this essay, written back in March, as well as the last few lessons of ‘On Tyranny.’”

In the March essay he linked to, he predicted, "A purpose of the war on Iran might well be to provoke a terrorist attack inside the United States. This would provide Donald Trump with a pretext to try to cancel or 'federalize' the coming Congressional elections.“

"Self-terrorism might not have been the initial aim; but as time goes by, and failures and atrocities mount, its appeal will grow. Trump could think that he has much to gain; the war itself makes terrorism more likely; there are plausible vectors of terror; and the United States has let down its defenses," he added.

As for the timing, he elaborated, “We know that he is obsessed with the fall elections, which his party will almost certainly lose by spectacular margins, and that he fears the accordant loss of power. This is clear from his own statements and actions.”

When former Oklahoma Sen. Markwayne Mullin was confirmed as President Donald Trump's new Secretary of Homeland Security, he stated that his key goal was that "we’re not in the lead story every single day.”

According to Jonathan Derbyshire of the Financial Times, he has failed utterly in this goal, as the Immigration and Customs Enforcement killings have continued to generate public outrage, and DHS has continued to skirt all accountability for it.

Multiple ICE agents were involved in shooting deaths in the past few weeks in Texas and Maine. Shortly after, "ICE suspended vehicle stops in the wake of the shootings," with border czar Tom Homan calling it a "short pause just to make sure we're doing the right thing" — only for Trump to decree the pause over hours later on Truth Social.

Part of the issue for Mullin, said the report, is that he has done little to change the toxic hiring culture at the agency that is setting ICE up for abuses of power. "In January, the Department of Homeland Security announced that it had hired more than 12,000 officers and agents in less than a year and that it had received 'more than 220,000 applications to join ICE from patriotic Americans'" noted the report — but an Associated Press investigation suggests "many of those applying, and indeed a significant number of those who ended up getting hired, were unsuitable for the job."

Ultimately, Derbyshire continued, Mullin could end up falling from favor just as his predecessor Kristi Noem did — and the president's move to countermand the ICE traffic stop pause could be the first signs of it.

"Mullin would do well to remember that in this White House, presidential loyalty and support is a scarce and finite resource," he concluded.