Has it begun? Maybe.
There are some little telltale signs that steps are being taken, plans are being made. A campaign, of course, depends are who is running.
In the year or two prior to the last Buffalo mayoral election in 2021 there was considerable conversation among politicos about whether the then four-term incumbent, Byron Brown, would run for an unprecedented fifth term. “Strive for five” was the slogan that was being mentioned. Then it wasn’t just a slogan: he was running again.
The 2021 election was certainly different. The incumbent had a large war chest and all the powers of the office available to him. His only opponent in the Democratic primary was an unknown Democratic Socialist, India Walton. She and her team out-hustled Brown and company who thought they would coast to victory. The ensuing general election with Brown running as a write-in candidate was expensive and brutal, but Brown got re-elected.
Recent reports concerning the Mayor have frequently speculated about opportunities for Brown to move to another job. Buffalo State University, Shea’s Buffalo, and the Western New York Off-Track Betting Corporation have been mentioned. Charlie Specht in a recent Buffalo News newsletter added M&T Bank and Delaware North to the list of possibilities. As far as 2025 is concerned, however, the new slogan might be “nix on six.”
Politics in some respects is like nature: it abhors a vacuum. The political realm does not like a vacuum and will always try to fill it. If Mayor Brown is looking to move on, others are looking to step in.
The two names most prominently mentioned as candidates for mayor of Buffalo in 2025 are State Senator Sean Ryan and Council President Chris Scanlon. Ryan was a member of the Assembly for ten years before being elected to the Senate in 2020. Scanlon was first elected as South District Councilmember in 2011 and was elected President of the Council by his colleagues in January. If Mayor Brown were to leave his office before the end of his term he would be succeeded by the Council president.
Ryan most recently introduced budget legislation designed to address the housing affordability crisis in Buffalo and other cities throughout Upstate New York. The legislation would include $40 million for the construction of one- and two-family homes in Buffalo, Albany, Syracuse, Rochester, and Binghamton plus $40 million to provide grants to help owners of five or fewer units bring dilapidated apartments up to code as affordable rentals.
Geoff Kelly in his Investigative Post newsletter recently noted that a routine Common Council resolution in support of the proposals by defeated by a vote of 7-to-2. Among the seven “no” votes was Scanlon. Council resolutions concerning new assistance for the City of Buffalo are usually approved unanimously.
As Council President the biggest challenge Scanlon will soon face will be the consideration and approval of the city’s 2024-2025 budget. As noted in a previous post, several large new expense items along with the general operations of the city will present a great strain on the city’s finances. The ending of federal pandemic aid and the uncertainty about additional state assistance will put the focus on a significant property tax increase after many years of small or no increases.
Both Ryan and Scanlon would bring substantial resources to a race for mayor. Financially Ryan’s campaign treasury at the moment dwarfs that of Scanlon. Reports posted with the state Board of Elections in mid-January showed Ryan with $233,468 in cash available. Ryan has signed up to participate in the state’s new public campaign financing program (which can only be used for a state legislative race) but he has thus far not filed the mid-March financial document required by the program, reporting only “No-Activity.”
Scanlon as of mid-January had $105,118 in his campaign account, a considerable sum for a member of the Council.
Scanlon in the 2021 campaign for mayor demonstrated the strength of his committee’s abilities by greatly assisting in Mayor Brown’s successful write-in victory. Ryan’s organization has produced highly successful results in his seven campaigns for office.
The speculation about Ryan for Mayor and Scanlon for Mayor efforts has been percolating for some time. Neither of them has done anything to dampen the chatter. We will see more hints along the way as the new state budget is approved and the new city budget is considered. Comments and criticisms or outright political shots will not be surprising.
If Mayor Brown were to leave City Hall in the next few months Scanlon would become Mayor. That might put a different perspective on everything, but it might not end the possibility of a contested race for mayor next year.
There may be other candidates for mayor emerging before 2025. Most certainly there will be one or more candidates from among Black leaders of the city.
And then there is this factoid: if there is a new mayor on January 1, 2026 he or she will be only the fourth new Buffalo mayor in 48 years.
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