Kennedy elected to Congress in NY26 -revised 1st paragraph

Voters yesterday chose a new representative for the 26th Congressional District, State Senator Tim Kennedy.  With nearly all votes counted Kennedy’s margin of victory was 68 percent to 32 percent for his Republican opponent, West Seneca Supervisor Gary Dickson.  Kennedy’s victory in Erie County with 71 percent of the vote was larger than in Niagara County (55 percent).  More than 68,200 votes were cast.  The registered voter turnout was 14.1 percent; 14.6 percent in Erie County and 12.1 percent in Niagara County.

The turnout in the special election was significantly lower than the numbers in the two most recent elections for that seat which were held on the regular November election date.  In 2020 the district turnout (in a somewhat different district) was 319,703.  In a re-drawn district in 2022 245,212 votes were cast.  In November of this year the district will have been redesigned once again with lines that will continue through the 2030 election.

Kennedy dominated the race from the start.  He has had a significant public identity in elective office, first as a county legislator and then since 2011 as a state senator.  Dickson is only in his fifth year in an elected town office.  The district is more than two-to-one Democratic by party affiliation.

But there was the other key factor, money.  In just five months Kennedy raised more than $1.7 million for his congressional campaign.  That money funded the continuous TV ads and frequent mailers that were sent to voters.  Dickson raised a little more than $35,000 from mid-February through April 10.  He ran some radio ads but mailings were limited.

Kennedy also took advantage of the millions of dollars he had raised as a state senator.  While he could not directly use that money in a congressional campaign he distributed hundreds of thousands of dollars far and wide beyond his senate district to make friends and influence people.  WKBW-TV also reported that Kennedy’s Senate office sent out 12 state-financed mailers through the first three months of 2024, which was six times more than all of the other Western New York senators combined.

It is worth noting that Republican Dickson ran an unconventional race, speaking in moderate tones.  He endorsed Donald Trump but otherwise spoke rationally about the January 6 insurrection and the work of the FBI.  To the extent that his messaging got through, he discussed issues in a reasonable manner.  It is good to see that a rational discussion of issues is possible.

There is a primary election scheduled for June 25 and Democrat Nate McMurray has filed petitions to challenge Kennedy in that race which will lead to the November election for a full two-year term.  It is likely that McMurray’s petitions will be disqualified and there will be no primary.

As of May 1 Dickson is no longer the Republican candidate for Congress.  Going forward to November the party nominee is Anthony Marecki, a Buffalo attorney.  Marecki has not yet created a Federal Election Commission recognized campaign committee.  Whether he plans to run an active campaign or simply let his name be used to fill a line on the ballot remains to be seen.

Expect Tim Kennedy to hit the ground running when he is sworn into office in the next week or two.  He has already set his sights on appointment to a key House committee spot or two where he can actively play a part in the development of legislation.

Given his reputation as a fundraising powerhouse, it seems likely that after the 2024 election cycle he will look to play a role in assisting the Democratic Party in the House of Representatives to raise money for future campaigns.

Over the past six decades the men and woman (Louise Slaughter) who have represented Western New York in Congress have served for multiple terms.  There has been Thaddeus Dulski (16 years); Henry Nowak (18 years); Jack Kemp (18 years); John LaFalce (28 years); Stan Lundine (10 years); Jack Quinn (12 years); Bill Paxon (10 years); Tom Reynolds (10 years); Louise Slaughter (17 years); and Brian Higgins (19 years). 

The exception to this pattern was the interlude between when Reynolds left office in 2009 and 2023.  Four different people held a WNY seat – Chris Lee; Kathy Hochul; Chris Collins; and Chris Jacobs.  Nick Langworthy was elected to the southern Erie County/Southern Tier district in 2022 and is up for re-election this year.  He might hold that seat for some time.

As Brian Higgins noted in his resignation from Congress earlier this year, the House of Representatives has strayed far from its constitutional role in governing the United States.  Republicans have made the House into a set for their performance art, showing no serious interest in governing.  While Speaker Mike Johnson recently rose to the occasion to get House approval for critical foreign aid to Ukraine and Israel, it only happened because of the leadership of Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

There are still six months to go in the 2024 election and they will not be the smoothest six months in American political history.  The election of Kennedy will not affect the current makeup of the House,  There are, however, multiple paths in New York, California, and some other states including states in the south where Democrats can pick up the small number of seats that they need to regain control of the House.  Stay tuned.

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Seeing the National Guard on our streets is bad — but we must beware Trump’s Plan B



I saw some of my former Naval War College colleagues at the recent No Kings rally in Providence. Given that National Guard troops and protestors had clashed in Los Angeles at an earlier June rally protesting ICE raids, we wondered whether we would see National Guard troops as we marched, where they would be from, and their mission? We didn’t. That doesn’t mean, however, that there is no need for concern about the future.

The National Guard is unique to the U.S. military given it is under the authority of both state governors and the federal government and has both a domestic and federal mission. Governors can call up the National Guard when states have a crisis, either a natural disaster or a human-made one. Federal authorities can call on the National Guard for overseas deployment and to enforce federal law.

President Dwight Eisenhower used both federalized National Guard units and regular U.S. Army units to enforce desegregation laws in Arkansas in 1957. But using military troops to intimidate citizens and support partisan politics, especially by bringing National Guard units from other states has never been, and should never be, part of its mission.

But that’s what is happening now.

A host of Democratic U.S. senators, led by Dick Durbin of Illinois, ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, and Jack Reed of Rhode Island, ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, has called for an inquiry into the Trump administration’s recent domestic deployment of active-duty and National Guard troops to Chicago, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., Portland, Oregon, and Memphis, Tennessee.

In an Oct. 17 letter to the Defense Department’s Inspector General, the senators challenge the legality of the domestic troop deployment and charge that it undermines military readiness and politicizes the nation’s military.

Ostensibly, the troops have been sent to cities “overrun” with crime. Yet data shows that has not been the case. Troops have been sent to largely Democratic-run cities in Democratic-led states.

The case for political theater being the real reason behind the deployment certainly was strengthened when largely Republican Mississippi sent troops to Washington D.C., even though crime in Mississippi cities like Jackson is higher than in D.C. Additionally, there is an even more dangerous purpose to the troop presence — that of normalizing the idea of troops on the streets, a key facet of authoritarian rule.

There are fundamental differences in training and mission between military troops and civilian law enforcement, with troop presence raising the potential for escalation and excessive force, and the erosion of both civil liberties and military readiness.

Troop deployments have hit some stumbling blocks. Judges, including those appointed by President Donald Trump, have in cases like Portland impeded administration attempts to send troops. Mayors and governors, including Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, have pushed back as well.

While the Trump administration has shown its willingness to ignore the law, it has also shown a significant ability to come up with a “Plan B.” In this case, Plan B, used by many past dictators, is likely the utilization of private military companies (PMC).

Countries have used these mercenary organizations to advance strategic goals abroad in many instances. Though the Wagner Group, fully funded by the Kremlin, was disbanded after a rebellion against the regular Russian military in 2023, Vladimir Putin continues to use PMCs to advance strategic goals in Ukraine and other regions of the world wrapped in a cloak of plausible deniability. Nigeria has used them internally to fight Boko Haram. The United States used Blackwater in Afghanistan in the early days after 9/11. Overall, the use of PMCs abroad is highly controversial as it involves complex tradeoffs between flexibility, expertise and need with considerable risks to accountability, ethics and long-term stability.

Domestically, the use of PMCs offer leaders facing unrest the advantage of creating and operating in legal “gray zones.” Leaders not confident of the loyalty of a country’s armed forces have resorted to these kinds of private armies. Adolf Hitler relied on his paramilitary storm troopers, or “brown shirts” to create and use violence and intimidation against Jews and perceived political opponents. Similarly, Benito Mussolini’s “black shirts,” Serbian paramilitaries, and PMCs in Muammar Gaddafi’s Libya served similar purposes.

President Donald Trump has said he is “open” to the idea of using PMCs to help deport undocumented immigrants. He has militarized Homeland Security agents to send to Portland, evidencing his willingness to circumvent legal challenges. And perhaps most glaringly, poorly qualified and trained masked Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents are already terrorizing American cities.

At the No Kings rally in Providence my former colleagues and I did see a man in an unfamiliar uniform — with a gun and handcuffs — standing alone on the sidewalk along the march path. He wasn’t doing anything threatening, just watching. In the past, he might not have even been noticed.

But that day he was. Some people even waved to him. Protestors are not yet intimidated, but they are wary, and rightfully so.

Be aware, America. They have a Plan B.

  • Joan Johnson-Freese of Newport is professor emeritus of national security affairs at the U.S. Naval War College and a Senior Fellow at Women in International Security. She earned a Ph.D. in international relations and affairs from Kent State University. She is an adjunct Government Department faculty member at Harvard Extension and Summer Schools, teaching courses on women, peace & security, grand strategy & U.S. national security and leadership. Her book, “Leadership in War & Peace: Masculine & Feminine,” was released in March 2025 from Routledge. Her website is joanjohnsonfreese.com.

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