Is it even possible to convince people to stop eating meat?

Factory farming is a particularly wicked problem to solve.

It’s a moral atrocity, involving the confinement and slaughter of hundreds of billions of animals globally each year. It’s a blight on the environment. It’s terrible for slaughterhouse workers, many of whom suffer from PTSD, anxiety, or depression. Yet factory farming produces something almost everyone wants and that has become culturally, economically, and politically entrenched: cheap meat, milk, and eggs. 

Despite strong public concern for cruelty to farmed animals and large swathes of Americans telling pollsters that they’re trying to cut back on meat, we keep eating more of it. And research has shown that it’s nearly impossible to persuade most people otherwise. But a new study, which hasn’t yet been published and is currently under review at an academic journal, might complicate that consensus.

Learning how the sausage gets made

In the experiment, University of Toronto professors Lisa Kramer and Peter Landry recruited 1,149 students and separated them into two groups. One group watched a 16-minute clip from the harrowing animal rights documentary Dominion about the treatment of pigs in meat production, while a control group watched a video about the role mushrooms play in forest ecosystems. 

In surveys taken before the study, immediately after watching the video, and a week later, participants were asked to choose a protein — bacon, chicken, steak, tofu, or none — to add to a meal.

Before watching the video, 90.1 percent of students chose meat in their meal; a week after watching the video, 77.9 percent did — a 12.2 percent decline. Demand for pork, specifically, fell more sharply. 

“Turns out, it’s harder to order meat after watching Dominion,” Seth Ariel Green, a research scientist at Stanford University’s Humane and Sustainable Food Lab, wrote in a blog about the study. “And it’s especially harder to order pork after watching the segment on pigs.” (Green didn’t work on the study but did provide the authors feedback on its design.)

Plenty of researchers have shown videos similar to Dominion to study participants and found little to no effect. So what made this one different? Kramer and Landry say it could simply be the high-quality nature of the film. 

It was filmed in high definition and artfully edited, with close-up shots of distressed pigs, while most other factory farm footage is low-quality and shaky. It’s a disturbing and unflinching look at industrial pig farming, though the narrator — actor Rooney Mara — speaks with a flat tone, as she carefully guides the viewer through practices that, on their face, should be illegal but are common and lawful. Some of those practices include: 

Confining pigs in tiny crates for virtually their entire lives

Slamming runt piglets head-first into concrete as a form of cheap euthanasia

Removing piglets’ tails, teeth, and testicles without pain relief

Using carbon dioxide gas chambers to knock pigs unconscious prior to slaughter, which can cause extreme suffering

What’s more, the clip that participants watched makes no appeal for them to eat less meat or more plant-based foods, leaving viewers to come to their own conclusions. “The task of connecting the experiences of pigs on industrial-scale farms (as depicted in the video) to one’s own consumption choices is left entirely to the viewer,” Kramer and Landry wrote in the paper. (A lot of studies on the impacts of factory-farming documentaries use advocacy videos that directly ask the viewer to eat less meat.)

The study certainly has limits. For one, the average participant was 22 years old and participants skewed slightly female; young people and women are both groups that are more likely to be concerned about cruelty to farmed animals. And it only followed the participants for one week after the experiment.

Lastly, researchers didn’t track what participants actually ate. Instead, the students indicated which protein they would add to a meal, with the understanding that they had a roughly 50 percent chance of winning a voucher for the meal they chose at a university cafeteria. At first, this struck me as a poor proxy for real-world behavior. But the researchers noted that another study that used a similar voucher approach and tracked what students actually ate found little discrepancy.    

All this suggests that persuading individuals to eat less meat — a goal that many in the animal advocacy movement have largely given up on — might not be as hopeless as previously thought.

Why animal rights groups largely gave up on trying to change people’s diets

The University of Toronto study results pleasantly surprised Green, who researches how to move society away from factory farming. For a time, he had been convinced that efforts to persuade people to eat less meat — especially with appeals to animal welfare — were ineffective. 

His beliefs were informed by his research: Late last year, he and some colleagues published a meta-analysis, which is currently under peer review, looking at more than three dozen rigorous studies designed to persuade people to eat less meat. Overall, the studies found little to no effect. (It’s worth noting, however, that a few studies involving much lengthier interventions, like reading an essay and joining a 50-minute group discussion or sitting through a lecture, have demonstrated sizable effects).

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Green’s findings align with a change in the animal rights movement that took hold around a decade ago.

Since the 1970s, animal advocates have poured a lot of resources into persuading people to go vegetarian or vegan. Organizations ran expensive advertising campaigns, handed out millions of pamphlets at universities, lectured in classrooms, and penned letters to the editor and op-eds in newspapers, among many other tactics. But in spite of all the effort, American meat consumption kept rising. 

By 2015, the largest animal advocacy organizations were shifting their focus toward political and corporate campaigns to ban some of the most egregious factory-farm practices, like tiny cages for pigs and egg-laying hens. Some groups also advocated for technological change — namely, making plant-based meat taste better, more affordable, and more widely available. The idea was that instead of trying to influence one person at a time, which had proven so difficult, they’d instead change the food system.

The pivot produced a lot of tangible progress for animals: Over a dozen states have restricted cages for farmed animals, and plant-based meat tastes better and is more widely available than ever. But I’ve wondered whether animal advocates have given up on public persuasion too soon, and in turn, made it harder to maintain their hard-won institutional and technological progress.

Progress won through corporate or political campaigns might struggle to withstand backlash “if there isn’t also culture change happening and people’s attitudes shifting” about factory farming, Laura Driscoll, a social scientist who works at the Stray Dog Institute — a foundation that funds groups working to reform the food system — told me.

For example, plant-based meat sales jumped significantly between the late 2010s and early 2020s, but they’ve recently dipped back down. There might be a bigger market for these products, and more consumers might be immune to the fallacious argument that they’re overly processed, if more people were persuaded of the ills of factory farming.

Some states are now rolling back animal welfare laws that advocates had previously persuaded them to adopt, while some members of Congress are pushing to eliminate all state-level cage bans. Many food companies that pledged to eliminate eggs from caged hens in their supply chain aren’t following through. In the absence of a broader base of voters and consumers who see factory farming as an important social issue, corporations and politicians know they can backslide without much resistance. 

The art of persuasion

Compared to straightforward metrics like how many pigs are still trapped in cages, culture change is “harder to understand and harder to measure,” Driscoll said, so it’s hard to know how much animal rights groups should invest in it. And if it works, it takes a lot of time and repeated exposure to get there. A study participant may not alter their meat consumption after watching one video or reading an essay, but they might change over time if they hear about it enough — and hear persuasive messages that appeal to them.

Currently, people are receiving very few messages about factory farming or meat reduction, as it’s rarely covered in the news or discussed by politicians. Videos about the issue hardly ever go viral, and animal advocacy groups have pulled back from education and persuasion. 

Meanwhile, as Green told me, consumers are inundated with messages telling them to eat more meat. Some of those messages are explicit, like fast food advertisements or influencers telling us we need more (animal) protein, to implicit ones, like recipe videos on social media or our friends and family members eating a standard American diet rich in meat. Meat companies also mislead consumers to believe farmed animals are treated much better than they actually are. 

It’s hard to imagine the public making meaningful reductions in meat consumption or advocating for significant changes to factory farming in this political, social, and information ecosystem. As researchers are prone to saying, more research is needed to know what could persuade more people on this issue: “There’s just not that much great research out there,” Green said. “If you’re a researcher in this field and you want to make a contribution, it’s not that hard to be the first person to do something.”

The case for both dietary change and meat industry reforms can be made persuasively. Based on the Dominion study, it might only take 16 minutes of an unvarnished look into factory farms for it to break through to some people. In today’s crowded attention environment, capturing those 16 minutes of people’s time will be harder than ever, but Green said it’s still worth the effort.

“I think that persuasion is a beautiful thing where we try to convince people using reason and argument, and take them seriously” as moral agents, he said. “I do not want to give up on this.”

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Mamdani promises housing ‘transformation’

Mayor Zohran Mamdani announced his housing plan blueprint for New York City in Brooklyn on Tuesday.

DAYS THE BUDGET IS LATE: 56

GETTING TO 200K: Mayor Zohran Mamdani released a wide-ranging housing plan today that he said will usher in the “largest municipal housing transformation this country has ever seen.”

The blueprint lays out how Mamdani plans to address the single biggest driver of the city’s affordability crisis, the central focus of the mayoral campaign that propelled him into City Hall.

While the plan lays out ambitious targets that would surpass past mayors if achieved — including the planned creation and preservation of a combined 400,000 affordable homes over a decade — it also illustrates how Mamdani is not reinventing the wheel on many housing issues, but rather leaning into or expanding policies pursued by his predecessors.

The plan seeks to tackle a range of coinciding crises: the severe shortage of available housing; a public housing system that’s crumbling and facing massive capital needs; and a rental housing stock that is experiencing growing distress as operating costs skyrocket.

“If the absence of good government created the conditions we now face, the presence of good government can build the solutions we now need,” Mamdani said in a speech announcing the plan in Brooklyn’s Gowanus section, where a city-led rezoning enacted nearly five years ago has spurred a residential building boom.

Mamdani is already encountering the limits of some of his campaign promises and moderating costly plans as his administration grapples with a strained municipal budget. On the campaign trail, the mayor said he would create 200,000 publicly-subsidized homes over a decade, tripling current rates of production. He is standing by that goal, while also pledging to preserve another 200,000 affordable homes.

“Scaling to these levels of affordable housing production will not be easy and cannot be done overnight,” the blueprint states. The administration is aiming to create some 14,000 affordable homes in fiscal year 2027, which starts July 1, while ramping up to 21,000 units per year by fiscal year 2031.

Under the blueprint released Tuesday, Mamdani’s housing department plans to finance 8,000 new affordable homes in fiscal years 2027 and 2028 — which would grow subsidized housing by more than 35 percent from the prior two years. But the plan does not spell out specifically how the administration will produce roughly 12,000 remaining units annually to get to Mamdani’s 200,000-unit goal.

Much of that additional affordable housing will rely on zoning, tax and other financing tools rather than direct city subsidies. And it would require the private sector to embrace those tools. — Janaki Chadha

From the Capitol

New York State Assemblymember Jeff Dinowitz said he voted in favor of the state budget bills due to favored changes for Tier VI.

‘BIG UGLY’ VOTE: The Legislature spent the better part of today plowing through votes on the budget’s “big ugly” bill, which contains most of the hot-button issues in this year’s spending plan.

“This bill has some really good stuff in it and some really bad stuff,” said Assemblymember Jeff Dinowitz, who cited Tier VI pension plan changes when speaking about his “yes” vote. “I look forward to seeing the positive impact it’s going to have on many, many state workers.”

That was the common theme that emerged among Democratic during today’s debate — they hate the rollbacks to the climate law, but they’re also supportive of the inclusion of what Republican Assemblymember Michael Fitzpatrick dubbed “the mother of all pension sweeteners” that they reluctantly voted yes. That line of reasoning appeared especially common from members who, like Dinowitz, have Democratic primaries in four weeks and stand to face attacks for being weak on the environment.

“This is not an easy vote for me,” said Assemblymember Grace Lee, who’s running for an open Senate seat and wound up backing the bill because of Tier VI.

“I am voting yes because I refuse to deny hardworking union members and retirees the retirement security they have worked years to achieve,” Assemblymember Jessica Gonzalez-Rojas said.

Gonzalez-Rojas also took time to slam the climate law changes.

“Communities like Jackson Heights, Corona, East Elmhurst, Elmhurst, LeFrak City have already experienced the consequences of environmental injustice,” she said. “Climate change is not theoretical for our communities. It is personal.”

That might be another indication of just how much budget season has blended into primary season. Not all of those neighborhoods fall within Gonzalez-Rojas’ district — but they’re a perfect description of the Senate district where she’s challenging fellow Democrat Jessica Ramos next month. — Bill Mahoney

FROM CITY HALL

Fans often gather around Madison Square Garden for watch parties during and after Knicks games.

MEANWHILE, IN KNICKS WORLD: Mamdani appeared to indicate today that watch parties will be back outside Madison Square Garden during next month’s NBA finals.

“They will be there,” Mamdani said with a laugh when asked at an unrelated press conference if the partying will resume outside the iconic arena next month when the Knicks play their first NBA finals in nearly three decades.

But a Mamdani spokesperson told Playbook that the mayor wasn’t referring to official watch parties. Rather, the spokesperson said he was talking about how Knicks fans inevitably gather outside the Garden during and after games to celebrate or mourn — oftentimes in rather raucous fashion.

Whether official watch parties — replete with massive screens showing the games — will be back outside the Garden during the finals, the Mamdani spokesperson wouldn’t say, adding that plans are still being finalized.

“It’s not a question of if there will be watch parties but where,” spokesperson Dora Pekec said.

The issue could become a bone of contention for Knicks fans.

Last week, the city pulled MSG’s permit to hold its usual large-scale parties outside the arena during Knicks games due to concerns from the NYPD about public drinking and other debauchery. During one of the Knicks’ Eastern Conference Finals games against the Cleveland Cavaliers last week, six people were arrested in connection with the outdoor watch party.

The NYPD’s decision to put the kibosh on the parties may infuriate Knicks fans who are ecstatic about their team making it to the NBA finals for the first time since 1999. Mamdani, an avid Knicks fan, is already facing tension with NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch over how to police this summer’s World Cup, as previously reported by POLITICO, and an MSG dispute could drive a further wedge.

With the outdoor party permit scrapped, MSG hosted a watch party at Radio City Music Hall for the Knicks’ clincher against the Cavs last night.

No matter what, Mamdani said at today’s press conference that Knicks fans will be able to cheer on their team at a variety of watch parties across the city during next month’s finals.

“We’re looking forward to making sure that it is a time for New Yorkers to celebrate, it’s a time that they’re also safe,” he said. “We’re going to have a number of different kinds of watch parties, and we’ll get back to you as we keep going through those plans.”

The Knicks will face either the San Antonio Spurs or Oklahoma City Thunder in the finals next month. The first game in the series is set for June 3. Chris Sommerfeldt

FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

Congressional primary debates will begin to take place in June, including the crowded NY-12 race for retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler.

DEBATE-A-PALOOZA: Got plans in June? How about a congressional primary debate — or six?

After forums galore across the city’s competitive primaries, a slew of televised debates are on the books ahead of the June 23 election: two each for the races to replace retiring Reps. Nydia Velázquez and Jerry Nadler, and another two for Rep. Dan Goldman’s primary challenge from former City Comptroller Brad Lander.

All debates will be live at 7 p.m., with the exception of the first NY-07 debate on June 3, which will be prerecorded earlier that day and air at 7 p.m. Here’s when to block off your schedule:

— June 1: Goldman and Lander will be facing off for their first televised debate, hosted by Spectrum News NY1. NY1’s Errol Louis and Courtney Gross will moderate the program.

Goldman’s campaign has frequently criticized Lander for not agreeing to partake in seven debates.

— June 3: State Assemblymember Claire Valdez, Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso and City Council member Julie Won will take the stage as they vie for Velázquez’s seat. The debate will be hosted by NY1 and moderated by Louis and Gross. Public defender Vichal Kumar is also on the ballot, though he did not qualify for the debate.

— June 4: The four leading candidates looking to succeed Nadler will meet in a PIX11 debate: state Assemblymembers Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, Kennedy scion Jack Schlossberg and anti-Trump commentator George Conway. It will be moderated by Dan Mannarino.

— June 9: Another NY-12 debate will be hosted by NY1 and WNYC. Louis and WNYC’s Brian Lehrer and Brigid Bergin will moderate. This debate is set to feature Bores, Conway, Lasher, Schlossberg and public health practitioner Nina Schwalbe.

Schwalbe, a progressive candidate who has struggled to break through in the crowded field, has frequently criticized media coverage and events for not including her. A handful of other lesser-known candidates are also on the ballot next month.

— June 10: Valdez, Reynoso and Won will partake in a PIX11 debate, with Mannarino moderating.

— June 15: PIX11 will host Goldman and Lander for another showdown, moderated by Mannarino.

Early voting starts June 13. Madison Fernandez


MUM-DANI: Mamdani is noncommittal about getting involved in the competitive race in what is now his home district.

When asked by PIX11’s Henry Rosoff who he’s voting for in the Democratic primary to succeed Nadler, Gracie Mansion’s newest resident laughed and said he hadn’t made a decision but is “following the race as a keen constituent.”

“At this time, I would say that I’ve focused on the two decisions I’ve made thus far,” Mamdani continued, referring to his endorsements for Lander and Valdez.

Bores recently said he would “love” to have Mamdani’s backing. Lasher, meanwhile, is getting campaign help from political strategist Morris Katz, an architect of Mamdani’s win last year. A recent Emerson College/PIX11 poll found that Mamdani has a strong approval rating, at 66 percent, among Democratic primary voters in the district. But a Mamdani endorsement could also turn off some Jewish voters — a prominent constituency in the district — who are not fans of the mayor.

“It was a pleasure to serve with both of them in Albany,” Mamdani said of Bores and Lasher. Madison Fernandez 

ENDORSEMENT CORNER: Abundance New York rolled out its voter guide on Tuesday, highlighting candidates in competitive races who the group’s executive director Catherine Vaughan said in a statement are “willing to actually build the things New York needs.”

They include Reynoso and Lander, as well as a dual-endorsement for Bores and Lasher. (The group said that between Bores and Lasher, it “cannot recommend one over the other at this time, but we may revisit as the race continues.”)

The endorsements aren’t exactly all glowing. In the rationale for Reynoso, it states that his “record has not always supported our agenda, but we have decided to take his evolution at face value and to commit to holding him to his word.”

The blurb about Lander acknowledged that the group has “concerns about [his] record and some of his current stances,” including opposing some rezonings during his time on the Council and supporting a ban on what the group described as “investor-owned ‘build-to-rent’ housing.” The guide also states that the group is “dismayed at his demand that Brooklyn Marine Terminal development be delayed; this is a NIMBY stance that seems cynically targeted at Goldman’s leadership on the issue.” Despite that, Abundance New York pointed to Lander’s “record on housing production, transit, and the local land-use machinery in this district” and said it thinks he “would prioritize the built environment issues that we champion more strongly.”

The group is also backing Drew Warshaw — the affordable housing nonprofit executive who’s one of two primary challengers to state Comptroller Tom DiNapoli — along with a handful of candidates in the state Legislature and City Council member Carl Wilson. Madison Fernandez

IN OTHER NEWS

THINGS GO SOUTH: Mamdani-backed congressional candidate Claire Valdez, who has called to abolish ICE, is facing scrutiny over her father’s work for a firm involved in Texas border projects. (New York Post)

WHAT’S IN A NAME: Internal renderings for the Penn Station overhaul project show a presidential seal featuring Donald Trump’s name alongside a redesigned train hall. (Gothamist)

ACROSS THE AISLE: Brooklyn’s Park Slope Food Co-op is split over a looming vote to boycott Israeli products from the socially conscious grocery store. (The New York Times)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.