Following a very active primary campaign that at one time saw nine potential Democratic candidates, the November ballot for mayor of Buffalo is set (or is it?) with Sean Ryan as the Democratic and Working Families parties candidate; James Gardner, the Republican and Conservative candidate; and independent candidate Michael Gainer.
The party forums, petitioning, fundraising, debates, early voting, and then the real thing, primary day, consumed more than six months. The race to the finish line is only four months long.
The forums and petitioning narrowed the Democratic field to five candidates but the January 2025 campaign financial reports told the real tale almost from the beginning. Both acting Mayor Chris Scanlon and State Senator Sean Ryan each had about one half million dollars in their campaign treasuries at that time, and they both more than doubled their financial resources by the end of June. The other three candidates combined raised less than $100,000.
Money helps but so does a strong campaign team, a solid strategic plan, and some issues to emphasize. Politics is a competitive process and over time one campaign can often pull ahead. Such was the case with Ryan.
Overall turnout was a little off from the average of the five previous primaries for the office. A total of 26,521 votes were cast last week for a turnout of 27 percent. The average turnout in the last five primaries was 29,151, a difference of 2,630 votes or nine percent compared to this year.
There are nine councilmanic districts in Buffalo. Over the years there have been some considerable differences in turnout among the districts. Here is how they compared with one another in June 2025:
- Delaware – 5,359 votes; 43 percent turnout; Ryan — 3,589 votes; Scanlon — 1,395 votes
- Ellicott – 3,894 votes; 28 percent; Ryan — 2,144; Scanlon — 769
- Fillmore – 1,958 votes; 21 percent; Scanlon 838; Ryan — 776
- Lovejoy – 1,804 votes; 20 percent; Scanlon — 793; Ryan — 475
- Masten – 2,730 votes; 21 percent; Ryan — 1,022; Scanlon — 576
- Niagara – 1,878 votes; 20 percent; Ryan — 1,409; Scanlon — 346
- North – 1,794 votes; 23 percent; Ryan — 1,019; Scanlon — 628
- South – 4,656 votes; 46 percent; Scanlon — 3,428; Ryan — 1,046
- University – 2,245 votes; 19 percent; Ryan — 769; Wyatt — 565; Scanlon — 505
Ryan carried six of the nine districts: Delaware; Ellicott; Masten; Niagara; North; and University. He currently represents part or all of those districts in the State Senate. Scanlon carried Fillmore; Lovejoy; and South.
The South District is Chris Scanlon’s home base and he did well there. The turnout was good, although in the 2009 primary Mickey Kearns received 4,321 votes in the District compared to Scanlon’s 3,428. Mark Schroeder, another South Buffalo-based candidate for mayor, received 3,193 votes in 2017.
The Delaware District, Ryan’s home-base, did well both in the number of votes cast and in the large turnout.
I noted in a previous post that in past primaries the Ellicott and Masten Districts combined provided 39 percent of Mayor Byron Brown’s votes in the five primaries. I suggested that winning there this year would propel the successful candidate to victory citywide. Ryan won both of the Districts this year and his combined total margins over Scanlon in both districts, 1,821 votes, contributed substantially to his overall winning margin.
I also projected that the winning candidate would receive between 12,000 and 15,000 votes. Ryan received 12,309 votes.
In the days following last week’s primary Garnell Whitfield’s independent petitions were determined to be insufficient by the Board of Elections and Whitfield then declined to challenge the Board’s decision, ending his candidacy. The bigger development came last Friday when Scanlon announced that he would suspend his campaign and “forgo the independent line on the November ballot.” That was undoubtedly a very tough decision.
Scanlon has come far in elective office and his decision to drop the independent line hardly means the end of his political career. He has labored hard to manage the city and its troubling finances and will continue to do so over the next six months.
Community activist Michael Gainer will be on the November mayoral ballot under his independent Restore Buffalo Party label. Gainer is a hard working and intelligent man who will now continue to discuss his vision for a better Buffalo.
Republican James Gardner is basically a blank slate as a candidate for mayor. He refused to offer his positions on important city issues in the series of reports appearing in the Buffalo News over the past several weeks, claiming that he was waiting to see how candidates performed in the Democratic primary.
A candidate declining to take advantage of available earned media is certainly unique among the thousands of candidates that I have observed over the years. In last year’s election for District Attorney Gardner used his paid media consultant, Chris Grant, to do most of the speaking for him. In this year’s mayoral race Republican Party Chairman Michael Kracker is serving in a similar role.
Gardner lost overwhelmingly to Michael Keane in the DA race last November, a presidential election year. In the city of Buffalo portion of the DA vote Keane won by an 81 to 19 percent margin. Gardner received just 15,650 votes.
There is still talk on the streets about the possibility of Gardner being nominated for a Supreme Court seat in Brooklyn or the Bronx in early August, which would allow the party to substitute a different candidate for mayor. County Clerk Mickey Kearns has reportedly approached the leadership of the Republican and Conservative parties suggesting that he be substituted on their November ballots in place of Gardner.
Ryan starts the general election race as the overwhelming favorite. He has to rebuild his campaign finances which will now be assisted by the shift of some Scanlon donors to Ryan. The primary results demonstrated the ability of the Erie County Democratic Committee under Chairman Jeremy Zellner’s leadership to get out the votes.
In Erie County politics in 2025 there are just a handful out of the more than one hundred elections that will attract any attention. The race for mayor of Buffalo will continue to receive the dominant focus. Just 126 days to go!
Bluesky @kenkruly
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