The race for mayor of Buffalo  – Part II

Following a very active primary campaign that at one time saw nine potential Democratic candidates, the November ballot for mayor of Buffalo is set (or is it?) with Sean Ryan as the Democratic and Working Families parties candidate; James Gardner, the Republican and Conservative candidate; and independent candidate Michael Gainer. 

The party forums, petitioning, fundraising, debates, early voting, and then the real thing, primary day, consumed more than six months.  The race to the finish line is only four months long.

The forums and petitioning narrowed the Democratic field to five candidates but the January 2025 campaign financial reports told the real tale almost from the beginning.  Both acting Mayor Chris Scanlon and State Senator Sean Ryan each had about one half million dollars in their campaign treasuries at that time, and they both more than doubled their financial resources by the end of June.  The other three candidates combined raised less than $100,000.

Money helps but so does a strong campaign team, a solid strategic plan, and some issues to emphasize.  Politics is a competitive process and over time one campaign can often pull ahead.  Such was the case with Ryan.

Overall turnout was a little off from the average of the five previous primaries for the office.  A total of 26,521 votes were cast last week for a turnout of 27 percent.  The average turnout in the last five primaries was 29,151, a difference of 2,630 votes or nine percent compared to this year.

There are nine councilmanic districts in Buffalo.  Over the years there have been some considerable differences in turnout among the districts.  Here is how they compared with one another in June 2025:

  • Delaware – 5,359 votes; 43 percent turnout; Ryan — 3,589 votes; Scanlon — 1,395 votes
  • Ellicott – 3,894 votes; 28 percent; Ryan — 2,144; Scanlon — 769
  • Fillmore – 1,958 votes; 21 percent; Scanlon 838; Ryan — 776
  • Lovejoy – 1,804 votes; 20 percent; Scanlon — 793; Ryan — 475
  • Masten – 2,730 votes; 21 percent; Ryan — 1,022; Scanlon — 576
  • Niagara – 1,878 votes; 20 percent; Ryan — 1,409; Scanlon — 346
  • North – 1,794 votes; 23 percent; Ryan — 1,019; Scanlon — 628
  • South – 4,656 votes; 46 percent; Scanlon — 3,428; Ryan — 1,046
  • University – 2,245 votes; 19 percent; Ryan — 769; Wyatt — 565; Scanlon — 505

Ryan carried six of the nine districts:  Delaware; Ellicott; Masten; Niagara; North; and University.  He currently represents part or all of those districts in the State Senate. Scanlon carried Fillmore; Lovejoy; and South.

The South District is Chris Scanlon’s home base and he did well there.  The turnout was good, although in the 2009 primary Mickey Kearns received 4,321 votes in the District compared to Scanlon’s 3,428.  Mark Schroeder, another South Buffalo-based candidate for mayor, received 3,193 votes in 2017.

The Delaware District, Ryan’s home-base, did well both in the number of votes cast and in the large turnout.

I noted in a previous post that in past primaries the Ellicott and Masten Districts combined provided 39 percent of Mayor Byron Brown’s votes in the five primaries.  I suggested that winning there this year would propel the successful candidate to victory citywide.  Ryan won both of the Districts this year and his combined total margins over Scanlon in both districts, 1,821 votes, contributed substantially to his overall winning margin.

I also projected that the winning candidate would receive between 12,000 and 15,000 votes.  Ryan received 12,309 votes.

In the days following last week’s primary Garnell Whitfield’s independent petitions were determined to be insufficient by the Board of Elections and Whitfield then declined to challenge the Board’s decision, ending his candidacy.  The bigger development came last Friday when Scanlon announced that he would suspend his campaign and “forgo the independent line on the November ballot.”  That was undoubtedly a very tough decision.

Scanlon has come far in elective office and his decision to drop the independent line hardly means the end of his political career.  He has labored hard to manage the city and its troubling finances and will continue to do so over the next six months.

Community activist Michael Gainer will be on the November mayoral ballot under his independent Restore Buffalo Party label.  Gainer is a hard working and intelligent man who will now continue to discuss his vision for a better Buffalo.

Republican James Gardner is basically a blank slate as a candidate for mayor.  He refused to offer his positions on important city issues in the series of reports appearing in the Buffalo News over the past several weeks, claiming that he was waiting to see how candidates performed in the Democratic primary.

A candidate declining to take advantage of available earned media is certainly unique among the thousands of candidates that I have observed over the years.  In last year’s election for District Attorney Gardner used his paid media consultant, Chris Grant, to do most of the speaking for him. In this year’s mayoral race Republican Party Chairman Michael Kracker is serving in a similar role.

Gardner lost overwhelmingly to Michael Keane in the DA race last November, a presidential election year.  In the city of Buffalo portion of the DA vote Keane won by an 81 to 19 percent margin.  Gardner received just 15,650 votes.

There is still talk on the streets about the possibility of Gardner being nominated for a Supreme Court seat in Brooklyn or the Bronx in early August, which would allow the party to substitute a different candidate for mayor.  County Clerk Mickey Kearns has reportedly approached the leadership of the Republican and Conservative parties suggesting that he be substituted on their November ballots in place of Gardner.

Ryan starts the general election race as the overwhelming favorite.  He has to rebuild his campaign finances which will now be assisted by the shift of some Scanlon donors to Ryan.  The primary results demonstrated the ability of the Erie County Democratic Committee under Chairman Jeremy Zellner’s leadership to get out the votes.

In Erie County politics in 2025 there are just a handful out of the more than one hundred elections that will attract any attention.  The race for mayor of Buffalo will continue to receive the dominant focus.  Just 126 days to go!

Bluesky  @kenkruly

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Trump Says Israel Has His ‘Full Backing’ to Take Out Hamas If They Reject His Deal

President Donald Trump said Israel has the "full backing" of the U.S. government to destroy Hamas, if the terror organization does not agree to his peace plan

The post Trump Says Israel Has His ‘Full Backing’ to Take Out Hamas If They Reject His Deal first appeared on Mediaite.

‘Hope he’s listening’: Farmer makes dire plea to Trump as US ‘backbone’ risks collapse



An American farmer made a dire plea to President Donald Trump on Tuesday, saying "hope he's listening," as America's "backbone" risks collapse.

Arkansas farmer Scott Brown told CNN it's unclear how he or other agriculture producers will survive Trump's ongoing tariff war, especially as the fall harvest begins.

"I hope to break even, but I mean, we don't know," Brown said. "We're not cutting soybeans yet, and I don't know what the yield is. We're just finishing up corn. I'm a pretty low-debt-load farmer. I farm 800 acres. My equipment's all paid for. I do it all by myself. I'm a first-generation farmer, so I don't have as big of problems as a lot of the guys do. But, I mean, I have friends that farm thousands of acres, 5,000, 10,000, 11,000 acres. They've got worlds of problems. I mean, I don't know that there's any way to yield yourself out of this."

For his friends, the tariff fallout could mean losing everything.

"I don't think that the average American understands when you go down to the bank and get a crop loan, you put all your equipment up, all your equity in your ground, you put your home up, your pickup truck, everything up," he said. "And if they can't pay out and if they've rolled over any debt from last year, they're going to call the auctioneer and they're going to line everything up and they're going to sell it."

Trump is reportedly considering a potential bailout for farmers, a key Republican voting bloc. But that's not enough, Scott said.

"Well, the stopgap needs to come because they've kind of painted the farmer in a corner," he added. "I mean, I want trade, not aid. I need a market. I need a place to sell this stuff. I can work hard enough and make a product. If you give me someplace to sell it, I'll take care of myself, but they've painted us in a corner with this China deal and China buying soybeans. I mean, they've torn a market in half."

China — the biggest buyer — has made zero soybean orders this year. Instead, they've pivoted to purchasing soybeans from South American countries, including Argentina, Paraguay, and Bolivia. These countries plan to expand planting acreage for their crops and focus on planting soon for the 2025 and 2026 crops in the Southern Hemisphere.

The price per bushel of soybeans has also dropped, he added.

"The farmer can't continue to produce a crop below the cost of production. And that's where we're at. And we don't have anywhere to sell it. We're in a tariff war with China. We're in a tariff war with everybody else. I mean, where do they want me to market this stuff?" Scott asked.

This uncertainty also makes it hard to plan for 2026.

"Farming is done in a Russian roulette fashion to say a better set of words," Scott said. "If you pay out, then you get to go again. If you've got enough equity and you don't pay out, you can roll over debt. There's lots of guys farming that have between $400 and $700,000 worth of rollover debt. You know, and then and then you compound the problem with the tariffs. Look at this. When we had USAID, we provided 40% of the humanitarian food for the world. That's all grain and food bought from farmers, from vegetable farmers in the United States. The row crop farmers and grain and everything. So we abandoned that deal. And China accelerates theirs. So now I've got a tariff war that's killing my market."

He also wants the president to hear his message.

"I hope he's listening because, you know, agriculture is the backbone of rural America," Scott said. "For every dollar in agriculture, you get $8 in your rural community. I mean, we help pay taxes on schools, roads. We're the guys that keep the park store open, we're the guy that keeps the local co-op open, that 20 guys work at, and the little town I live in, we have a chicken plant, about 600 chicken houses, except for the school and the hospital. Almost our entire town of 7,000."

Agriculture is tied to everything in rural America, he explained.

"People's economy revolves around agriculture," Scott said. "I mean, I think he needs to listen. It's bigger than the farmer. It's all my friends. Whether they work in town or anything else. I mean, rural America depends on agriculture. And it doesn't matter if you're in Nebraska or you're in Arkansas."

Top GOP leader bemoans Dems are ‘holding government funding hostage’



A high-ranking Republican is blaming Democrats over a looming government shutdown.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) penned an opinion piece for The Washington Post on Monday, claiming that leaders must avert a spending crisis with a bipartisan appropriations process and claiming "Democrats are holding government funding hostage to a long list of partisan demands, totaling more than $1 trillion. And they’re ready to shut down the government if Republicans don’t comply."

Thune was among a group of leaders slated to meet Monday with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office, which includes House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA).

This closed-door meeting is just hours before the Oct. 1 deadline. A White House official described this as a make-or-break moment. It's also the first time Trump will meet with the Democratic leaders since he took office eight months ago.

Thune argues that "Republicans are open to discussion and negotiation on a number of issues."

"But there’s a difference between careful discussion and negotiation during the appropriations process and taking government funding hostage to jam more than $1 trillion in big-government spending in a funding bill designed to last mere weeks," Thune writes. "Major decisions should not be made in haste. And they certainly shouldn’t be made because one party is threatening to shut down the government if it doesn’t get its way."

As Republicans urge Democrats to accept the bill, Democratic leaders have pushed back against cuts to healthcare.

Affordable Care Act subsidies are set to expire this year. And without an extension, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that more than 4 million people will lose healthcare over the next 10 years.

Thune claims that "Democrats have decided to abandon the process."

Trump mocked as ‘historic’ Gaza peace plan missing ‘vital’ piece



President Donald Trump stood with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and announced a new ceasefire proposal and peace plan, but critics couldn't help but notice it's missing some critical pieces — namely, that a key party is missing.

Steve Herman, executive director at the Jordan Center for Journalism Advocacy and Innovation, quoted Trump's comment, "Everyone else has accepted it."

"Except Hamas, according to President Trump, explaining his plan calls for a 'Board of Peace' to be headed by himself," said Herman.

It prompted national security lawyer Bradly P. Moss to remark, "So, you know, a peace plan missing a vital party."

"The new official Trump plan for Gaza. Quite a few things to parse out, including accountability mechanisms, who actually makes up the stabilisation force, and what mandate they would have," said Dr. H.A. Hellyer, a geopolitics and security expert on the Middle East and Europe at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies.

Even senior Washington Examiner writer David Harsanyi had questions: "This plan has been tried more than once. Palestinians have never been able to meet #1."

Bloomberg's Washington Correspondent Josh Wingrove couldn't help but notice that the plan, "previously described as a '21-point plan,'" now "includes 20 points and an image of proposed withdrawals."

"The points include a call for Gaza's governance to be supervised by a 'Board of Peace' - chaired by Trump himself," added Wingrove.

White House columnist Niall Stanage, at "The Hill," also questioned, "It runs to 20 points but how will point 1 — upon which all else may hinge — be defined or verified and by whom?"

"If Trump is to be the head of the newly established transitional administration in Gaza, it means Gaza is becoming a mandate of the USA. Blair is the Mandate Governor," observed Tuğçe Varol, an academic working on Russian and Turkish foreign policy.