Election Day 2025 is just seven weeks away. As election seasons go political activity in Western New York has been relatively quiet.
There are several judgeships on the ballot but pay no attention – they are all uncontested.
There are elections for Erie County Sheriff and Erie County Comptroller. There is no ballot alternative for incumbent Sheriff John Garcia. Incumbent County Comptroller Kevin Hardwick has done a good job. His Republican opponent, Christine Czarnik, lost a race for the state Senate last year.
Six of the eleven seats on the Erie County Legislature are uncontested. Dozens of local offices throughout the county have only one candidate.
There is an election for mayor of Buffalo. After Sean Ryan’s decisive win in the Democratic primary things have been quiet for a while. Ryan will be doing some highly visible campaigning over the next fifty days. Republican James Gardner will finally be surfacing for some electioneering while independent Michael Gainer will be out working hard for votes.
You cannot just turn on a campaign for a major office such as mayor with seven weeks to go. Democrats in Buffalo outnumber Republicans by a six-to-one margin. Gardner only received 19 percent of the Buffalo portion of the DA race total vote last year. There will likely be a relatively low turnout on November 4, less than in the highly contested Byron Brown/India Walton election four years ago. Only 45 percent of the registered voters in Buffalo came out in 2021.
Given all that, it is not too early to spend some time looking at the 2026 elections. All statewide offices will be on the ballot along with state legislative races. The first election out of the box in 2026 will be a special election for the state Senate in the 61st District following the likely election of Sean Ryan as mayor.
State law requires the governor to call a special election for a vacant state legislative office within ten days of the vacancy occurring, which will be on January 1. The election must be held within 40 to 50 days from the date of the call, which means the election will be held in late February.
In special elections there are no primaries. The political parties select their candidates.
Ryan was already an incumbent senator when the state legislative districts were last drawn. He ran and was elected in the 61st District seat in 2022 and has represented the newly configured district for the past three years.
The 61st District by population and voter enrollment is essentially a suburban district. Here is a breakdown of voter registration by municipality in the district:
- Amherst – 86,043 voters – 42.1 percent of the district
- Tonawanda – 51,475 voters – 25.2 percent
- Buffalo – 39,855 voters – 19.5 percent
- Grand Island – 16,872 voters – 8.3 percent
- City of Tonawanda – 9,998 voters – 4.9 percent
Democrats outnumber Republicans in the district by nearly a two to one margin.
In the regular course of political events the numbers point to the next senator being a resident of one of the northern municipalities of Erie County.
There are three current Democratic members of the state Assembly who represent a portion of the 61st Senate District. They are:
- Assemblywoman Karen McMahon (146th District) representing 42 percent of the Senate district
- Assemblyman Bill Conrad (140th District) representing 36 percent of the district
- Assemblyman Jon Rivera (149th District) representing 9 percent of the district
Word on the streets is that neither Assemblywoman McMahon nor Assemblyman Conrad are interested in pursuing the Senate seat. Assemblyman Rivera, on the other hand, has been actively engaged in seeking support.
There are 200 election districts in the 61st District. Rivera’s current Assembly district begins on the west side of Buffalo, extends through one election district in Lackawanna, and includes all of the town of Hamburg. His Assembly district includes only 26 of the 200 election districts in the Senate district.
Erie County Democratic Chairman Jeremy Zellner is widely mentioned as a candidate for the Senate seat. His immediate focus, of course, is on the election of Ryan as Buffalo’s next mayor as well as other party candidates for offices throughout the county. In Zellner’s 13+ years as party chairman he has promoted the successful campaigns of scores of Democratic candidates on all levels. Like his predecessor, Len Lenihan, he has maintained peace in the party – no small accomplishment in a party that went through some very rough patches in the 1990’s and early 2000’s.
Zellner is a lifelong resident of the City of Tonawanda. He and his family reside there.
Rivera reportedly moved into the 61st District last year. He has been pursuing support from labor unions for the expected Senate election. Working on a regular basis with union representatives happens to be an important part of the time-honored role of being the Democratic chairman; Zellner has done that work for over a decade.
Rivera is not making any headway to secure support from party leaders in the northern suburbs. Both Tonawanda Democratic Chairman John Crangle and Amherst Chairman Chuck Eaton have told Politics and Other Stuff that they will support Zellner if he enters the race for Senate. Those two towns will carry significant weight in the election.
Assuming that Zellner will be the Democratic candidate in the special election and will win that contest, if Rivera chooses to run for the Senate seat in next year’s June primary he will need to give up his Assembly seat. Stories on the street indicate that Rivera has been suggesting one or more alternative candidates for the Assembly. Fillmore Councilmember Mitch Nowakowski is being mentioned as a possible successor candidate. Fifty-six percent of the registered voters in the 149th Assembly District live in the town of Hamburg.
The special election in the 61st Senate district will get the 2026 election schedule off to a quick start. It will be happening before you know it.
Bluesky @kenkruly
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