Final pre-Election Day financials; some facts, observations, and heard-on-the-streets

One week to go in a relatively quite election season.  And with the new state law moving most odd-year elections to even-numbered years this is sort of the end of a long tradition.

The major local race on the ballot this year is for mayor of Buffalo.

All three candidates – Democratic and Working Families candidate Sean Ryan; Republican and Conservative candidate James Gardner; and independent candidate Michael Gainer – have by all reports been working hard speaking with voters. 

Here are the financial reports for this race and some others of note covering the period from September 30 through October 20:

Mayor of Buffalo

  • Ryan:  Raised $29,040; spent from two Committees $84,582; cash on hand in two Committees $20,515
  • Gardner:  Raised $286,537 from personal funds; spent $288,576; cash on hand $0
  • Gainer:  Raised $3,700; spent $2,517; cash on hand $1,027

All told Gardner has spent nearly $400,000 of personal funds thus far in this campaign.  His most recent campaign financial report fails to explain what he spent his money on, as required by state law.  Woof!

He spent more than $500,000 of his own money in his campaign for District Attorney last year, which he lost in a landslide.

Erie County Comptroller

  • Kevin Hardwick (Incumbent – D,WF):  Raised $41,595; spent $102,312; cash on hand $58,167
  • Christine Czarnik (R,C):  Raised $25,201 including $11,878 from the Erie County Republican Committee and a transfer of $7,337 from the Christine for Senate Committee.  (Her Senate campaign committee last year received $111,865 in public funds from the state of New York.)  The Senate Committee’s report does not indicate any transfer to the Comptroller Committee account but does report a transfer to the Erie County Republican Committee – strange accounting; spent $41,499; cash on hand $7,835

Erie County Sheriff

  • John Garcia (Incumbent – R,C):  Raised $1,000; spent $23,553, which includes the transfer of $17,000 to the Erie County Republican Committee; cash on hand $506,185

Garcia has no opponent listed on the ballot but it is easy to write-in a name if you choose.  Given Garcia’s muddled, non-transparent handling of the D.J. Granville case and some other issues there might be a few more write-ins than usual cast in this race.

Supervisor of the Town of Amherst

  • Shawn Lavin (D,WF):  Raised $2,700; spent $92,036; cash on hand $7,422
  • Dan Gagliardo (R,C):  Raised: $13,390 including a $500 contribution from the Eastern Hills Sunrise Rotary Club; Rotary Clubs are usually 501(c)(3) organizations prohibited by federal law from making political contributions; spent $22,841; cash on hand $24,786

Supervisor of the Town of Hamburg

  • Robert Reynolds (D):  Raised $2,520; spent $8,387; cash on hand $3,745
  • Beth Farrell-Lorentz (R,C):  No financial report was on the state BOE website as of the close of business, October 27th.
  • Josh Collins (Write-in):  Raised $400; spent $10; cash on hand $577

Some facts, observations, and heard-on-the-streets

  • Speaking about the Town of Hamburg, what the heck is going on there?  A trifecta:  Collins lost the Republican primary to Farrell Lorentz by 22 votes but he’s carrying on with signs and other campaign materials that indicate he is serious about his write-in effort.  Such things do not usually work without a ton of money being spent – the Brown for Mayor write-in in 2021 being the prime example.  Will two Republicans splitting the vote give Democrat Reynolds an opening?  Republican Town Board member Frank Bogulski is reportedly supporting Collins.
  • And then there is the race for Hamburg Town Justice where two Democrats are vying for the office, Walter Rooth III and  Lisa Poch.  Rooth, however, is on the Republican line.  Former Congressman Jack Quinn is supporting Rooth.  For a race for a Justice position this election is getting nasty with both sides trading charges about who is supporting whom.
  • And there is more – some very nasty charges flying around in the race for Hamburg Highway Superintendent.
  • Republicans in Amherst currently hold no town offices.  Democrat Lavin has raised and spent more money than Republican Gagliardo.  Lavin and his Town Board running mates also have the advantage of a heavy Democratic enrollment edge.  For those who may not be subscribing anymore, Lavin had a very positive editorial endorsement from the Buffalo News:  “Amherst will benefit from Lavin’s calm, competent leadership.”
  • Cheektowaga has four Council seats on the ballot.  The Republicans are running a couple former Democrats while the Democrats offering some new faces.
  • Turnout will be an issue for both parties this year.  In Buffalo the turnout may be in the 30-35 percent range.  Maybe the same for the suburbs where there are so many uncontested elections.  Amherst, Cheektowaga, and Hamburg will see higher voting numbers than the rest of the county.
  • The Republicans seem to be having a problem with some of their operatives having an affinity for Nazis.  House Speaker Mike Johnson did a poor job of trying to wiggle his way out of the controversy.  One of the members of the now former organization known as the New York State Young Republicans had previously worked for state Senate Minority Leader Robert Ortt.  Erie County Republican Chairman Michael Kracker was quick to delete an internet photo of him with Young Republicans leader Bobby Walker who is part of the controversy.
  • It is turning out that issues concerning Medicaid/Affordable Health Care Act medical coverage and the nutrition program SNAP, issues that Republicans thought were safely tucked away until after the mid-term elections, are now about to have a major impact in blue and red states throughout the country.
  • The New York Times has a story, similar to much local reporting, about the large decline in Canadian activity in various American businesses, sporting events, and community attractions due to Donald Trump’s belligerent attitude and erratic tariff policies concerning Canada.  Western New York’s two Republican members of Congress, Claudia Tenney and Nick Langworthy, have been mostly silent about this serious WNY economic issue.
  • We are just days away from Congresswoman Elise Stefanik’s official announcement of her candidacy for governor.  Things got balled up recently when her staff presented the results of an internal poll.  It seems that a federal election account should not be used to pay for state-related polling.  Will she transfer her entire $10.9 million federal account to the gubernatorial race?
  • Did the Bills right the ship with their win over Carolina?  We better hope so, with Kansas City coming to town next Sunday.

Early voting

Early voting 2025 continues through Sunday, November 2nd

Here are links to the Erie and Niagara Counties Board of Elections websites that note the dates and times and locations that the polls will be opened.  The same information is available on the websites of other counties.

Erie County:  EARLYVOTING2025GEN.pub

Niagara County:  2025-09-16-080138-2025-general-election-early-voting-communication-plan.pdf

Publisher’s note

With next Tuesday’s elections the next edition of Politics and Other Stuff will be published on Wednesday, November 5th.

Bluesky  @kenkruly

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Seeing the National Guard on our streets is bad — but we must beware Trump’s Plan B



I saw some of my former Naval War College colleagues at the recent No Kings rally in Providence. Given that National Guard troops and protestors had clashed in Los Angeles at an earlier June rally protesting ICE raids, we wondered whether we would see National Guard troops as we marched, where they would be from, and their mission? We didn’t. That doesn’t mean, however, that there is no need for concern about the future.

The National Guard is unique to the U.S. military given it is under the authority of both state governors and the federal government and has both a domestic and federal mission. Governors can call up the National Guard when states have a crisis, either a natural disaster or a human-made one. Federal authorities can call on the National Guard for overseas deployment and to enforce federal law.

President Dwight Eisenhower used both federalized National Guard units and regular U.S. Army units to enforce desegregation laws in Arkansas in 1957. But using military troops to intimidate citizens and support partisan politics, especially by bringing National Guard units from other states has never been, and should never be, part of its mission.

But that’s what is happening now.

A host of Democratic U.S. senators, led by Dick Durbin of Illinois, ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, and Jack Reed of Rhode Island, ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, has called for an inquiry into the Trump administration’s recent domestic deployment of active-duty and National Guard troops to Chicago, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., Portland, Oregon, and Memphis, Tennessee.

In an Oct. 17 letter to the Defense Department’s Inspector General, the senators challenge the legality of the domestic troop deployment and charge that it undermines military readiness and politicizes the nation’s military.

Ostensibly, the troops have been sent to cities “overrun” with crime. Yet data shows that has not been the case. Troops have been sent to largely Democratic-run cities in Democratic-led states.

The case for political theater being the real reason behind the deployment certainly was strengthened when largely Republican Mississippi sent troops to Washington D.C., even though crime in Mississippi cities like Jackson is higher than in D.C. Additionally, there is an even more dangerous purpose to the troop presence — that of normalizing the idea of troops on the streets, a key facet of authoritarian rule.

There are fundamental differences in training and mission between military troops and civilian law enforcement, with troop presence raising the potential for escalation and excessive force, and the erosion of both civil liberties and military readiness.

Troop deployments have hit some stumbling blocks. Judges, including those appointed by President Donald Trump, have in cases like Portland impeded administration attempts to send troops. Mayors and governors, including Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, have pushed back as well.

While the Trump administration has shown its willingness to ignore the law, it has also shown a significant ability to come up with a “Plan B.” In this case, Plan B, used by many past dictators, is likely the utilization of private military companies (PMC).

Countries have used these mercenary organizations to advance strategic goals abroad in many instances. Though the Wagner Group, fully funded by the Kremlin, was disbanded after a rebellion against the regular Russian military in 2023, Vladimir Putin continues to use PMCs to advance strategic goals in Ukraine and other regions of the world wrapped in a cloak of plausible deniability. Nigeria has used them internally to fight Boko Haram. The United States used Blackwater in Afghanistan in the early days after 9/11. Overall, the use of PMCs abroad is highly controversial as it involves complex tradeoffs between flexibility, expertise and need with considerable risks to accountability, ethics and long-term stability.

Domestically, the use of PMCs offer leaders facing unrest the advantage of creating and operating in legal “gray zones.” Leaders not confident of the loyalty of a country’s armed forces have resorted to these kinds of private armies. Adolf Hitler relied on his paramilitary storm troopers, or “brown shirts” to create and use violence and intimidation against Jews and perceived political opponents. Similarly, Benito Mussolini’s “black shirts,” Serbian paramilitaries, and PMCs in Muammar Gaddafi’s Libya served similar purposes.

President Donald Trump has said he is “open” to the idea of using PMCs to help deport undocumented immigrants. He has militarized Homeland Security agents to send to Portland, evidencing his willingness to circumvent legal challenges. And perhaps most glaringly, poorly qualified and trained masked Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents are already terrorizing American cities.

At the No Kings rally in Providence my former colleagues and I did see a man in an unfamiliar uniform — with a gun and handcuffs — standing alone on the sidewalk along the march path. He wasn’t doing anything threatening, just watching. In the past, he might not have even been noticed.

But that day he was. Some people even waved to him. Protestors are not yet intimidated, but they are wary, and rightfully so.

Be aware, America. They have a Plan B.

  • Joan Johnson-Freese of Newport is professor emeritus of national security affairs at the U.S. Naval War College and a Senior Fellow at Women in International Security. She earned a Ph.D. in international relations and affairs from Kent State University. She is an adjunct Government Department faculty member at Harvard Extension and Summer Schools, teaching courses on women, peace & security, grand strategy & U.S. national security and leadership. Her book, “Leadership in War & Peace: Masculine & Feminine,” was released in March 2025 from Routledge. Her website is joanjohnsonfreese.com.

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