Even the casual observer of the world of politics is likely aware that we are not far away from a rather significant event – the 2026 mid-term elections. Elections for the House of Representatives may lead to Democratic control, which will install guard rails on Donald Trump’s last two years in office. Some say even the Senate’s 53-47 Republican majority is in jeopardy.
It’s too early to settle into the assumptions that Democrats will sweep races for the House, not with Republicans planning every trick in the book and then some to forestall a wave election. The number of House seats in serious contention is the smallest in decades. Cook Political Report says there are 16 toss-up seats, with 14 more that lean Democratic and 2 that lean Republican. Larry Sabato’s Center for Politics pegs the number of toss-ups at 13, with Democratic leans in 19 seats and Republicans in 6.
Democrats would need to flip four Republican Senate seats while holding all that they presently have to take control of the upper house. That’s a tall order but reporting shows that there are at least four Republican seats in possible jeopardy six months out from the election – Alaska, Maine, North Carolina and Ohio. Add Texas to the mix if Ken Paxton wins the Republican run-off primary there on May 26. Democrats need to hold highly contested seats in Michigan and Georgia.
Republicans are carrying a pile of political baggage with them into the election. Donald Trump’s declining polling is tied to a mess of problems. The Iran War has no apparent off-ramp, which it seems is appropriate considering that the White House does not even know what highway they are on in terms of a purpose for the war. The Strait of Hormuz blockade is wreaking havoc with the world economy while raising gasoline prices and feeding inflation on many household needs in the United States. Even some of Trump’s immigration policies are backfiring. And then, of course, there is still the Epstein files controversy.
This has led to the decision of House Republicans to look for something better to do. The ones who remain find themselves constantly challenged to comment about the often-bizarre late-night rantings of their leader.
The Republicans have built an overall lead in fundraising nationally. Sometimes money is not enough to win an election.
Show me the money
The key to congressional campaigns is money – tons and tons of money. Some goes directly to candidates but much more to Political Action Committees (PACs). Members of Congress need to spend an incredible amount of their time raising money.
The three House members and two senators who represent Western New York are well established members of the dialing for dollars club. Here is a summary of the money they have raised, disbursed, and have on hand for their current election cycles which in most cases began January 1, 2025:
Nick Langworthy (Republican, NY 23) – raised $1,857,945; Disbursed $809,823; Cash-on-hand as of March 31, 2026, $2,147,930
Claudia Tenney (Republican, NY 24) – raised $2,345,131; Disbursed $1,452,390; Cash-on-hand $1,247,743
Tim Kennedy (Democrat, NY 26) – raised $1,854,874; Disbursed $1,189,939; Cash-on-hand $1,003,999
Chuck Schumer (Democrat, NY) – election cycle began January 1, 2023 – raised $3,591,476; Disbursed $5,222,290; Cash-on-hand $8,251,229
Kirstin Gillibrand (Democrat, NY) – raised $2,198,878; Disbursed $946,803; Cash-on-hand $1,967,802
Here is how much each of the five members of Congress added (or in one case reduced) their cash-on-hand amounts over the past six months:
Langworthy added $439,036
Tenney added $280,386
Kennedy added $119,138
Gillibrand added $345,053
Schumer’s treasury decreased by $298,996
Here is a breakdown of one of the key sources of contributions for area representatives in the current election cycle:
Langworthy raised 38 percent of his money in 1,100 individual donations, totaling $702,517; an average of $639 per donation. He raised another $51,052 in unitemized donations.
Tenney raised 28 percent of her money in 5,313 individual donations, totaling $662,307; an average of $125 per donation. She raised another $265,001 in unitemized donations.
Kennedy raised 72 percent of his money in individual donations, totaling $335,237; an average of $1,351 per donation. He raised another $51,187 in unitemized donations.
There is a Democratic primary in the 23rd District, currently represented by Nick Langworthy. Dr. Aaron Gies, a St. Bonaventure University faculty member, is endorsed by all seven county party organizations in the district. He has raised $178,508; has had disbursements of $84,208; and had $54,583 cash-on-hand as of March 31st.
Gies’ opponent in the Democratic primary is Kevin Stocker – the same Kevin Stocker who has run for several different offices, some more than once. Stocker has raised $1,963 and has loaned his committee $60,632. He spent $61,237 which reportedly included expenses for $20/hour petitioners. He had $1,283 cash-on-hand. Gies is in a tough race, but it is always good and helpful for a candidate to carry the party’s flag into a difficult challenge.
Republican Dennis Hannon is Kennedy’s opponent. Hannon does not have a committee registered with the Federal Election Committee.
Claudia Tenney’s Democratic opponent is David Wagenhauser, who ran against her in 2024. He had a FEC committee established in 2024 but presently does not have a committee involved in the 2026 election.
The Langworthy, Kennedy, and Tenney elections will not become toss-ups heading toward November but the national campaigns will produce some interesting politicking in the months to come.
Bluesky @kenkruly
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