December is normally a slow month for local politics but the speculation and jockeying for a congressional seat, potential aftershocks to that event, and the Buffalo Common Council presidency will keep things churning. There will also be the start of presidential convention delegate petitioning on December 12th and the impending Court of Appeals decision about congressional redistricting to keep the attention of politicos.
Here are some facts, observations, and heard-on-the-streets for your consideration:
- The horrific tragic accident at the Rainbow Bridge last week brought out the worst in some Republicans and their allies in the electronic media. Surprise, surprise, they jumped to conclusions before law enforcement officers provided the facts. It’s just the latest indication that the party does not know how to lead.
- Vivek Ramaswamy outdid himself once again by tweeting: “we must secure our *NORTHERN* BORDER TOO. It’s the forgotten frontier of the border crisis in our country.” What say ye Ramaswamy Deputy Communications Director Stefan Mychijliw?
- Tim Kennedy’s campaign to replace Brian Higgins in NY26 is moving along with campaign emails and perhaps sponsorship of a poll that was being conducted by text last week. As of November 27th he is still the only prospective candidate who has set up an authorized committee with the Federal Election Commission.
- Michael Keane’s campaign for Erie County District Attorney is off and running with the Democratic County Committee’s endorsement. A primary seems unlikely. Attorney James Gardner of Judge Kenneth Case’s staff is reported to be the Republican candidate, although another potential candidate from a prominent law office might also be interested.
- If Kennedy becomes the Democratic nominee for NY26 he would be giving up his 63rd District seat in the State Senate. That will mean that a Democratic primary might develop. Petitioning for congressional, state legislative and local offices will begin at about the end of February so candidate declarations and party endorsements are nearly right around the corner.
- Might the interest of some members of the Buffalo Common Council in that seat affect the decision about who will be the next President of the Council?
- If Kennedy were to win the NY26 special election then Governor Kathy Hochul would need to schedule another special election for the Senate seat. That would likely happen in July, which would mean that in some parts of the county there would be four elections in four months.
- The state Court of Appeals decision about the redistricting of the state’s congressional districts will be announced in the near future, but the special election will probably be conducted with the lines drawn by the Special Master in 2022 regardless of the Court’s decision.
- Even if the 2022 lines continue to be used for the 2024 congressional elections it appears that five New York Republicans newly elected in 2022 will still have a hard time defending the House seats they barely won two years again. Watching them explain their association with far-right House Speaker Mike Johnson will be interesting.
- Actually that will probably be four seats in play with the anticipated expulsion of George Santos from NY3. Former Democratic Congressman Tom Suozzi is coalescing support for a return to Washington.
- There will be a Republican primary in the 147th Assembly District currently represented by far-right Member David DiPietro. Mitch Martin, who is a member of Sheriff John Garcia’s administrative team, will be the challenger. Will Martin leave his county position for the campaign? And who might the Erie County Republican Committee support? They haven’t done so well with primaries in recent years.
- Perhaps overlooked a bit on Election night 2023, Democrats in the Town of Aurora, which has a slight Republican plurality in voter enrollments, re-elected Aurora Town Council member Luke Wochensky and newly elected Ray Brazen. The Town Board has a Democratic majority. It wasn’t so long ago that Republicans controlled most everything in the town.
- “Elections have consequences” defeated Republican/Conservative candidate for Erie County executive, Chrissy Casilio, has been commenting as she tweets about some public issues. They certainly do, Ms. Casilio.
- As a homeowner in the Town of Amherst I am having a hard time understanding the 11 percent property tax increase that the Town Board will impose in 2024. Although I’m a budgets and numbers person, I admit that I haven’t gotten too deeply into the weeds on this subject. I do note that Amherst’s two large neighboring towns, Cheektowaga and Tonawanda, both operating relatively large governments like Amherst, are managing to keep their 2024 tax increases below the two percent state-imposed property tax increase cap for 2024.
- I note with sadness the recent passing of Gayle Syposs, City of Tonawanda’s Democratic Committee Chair, and Camille Brandon, who held a variety of public positions prior to her most recent work with O’Donnell & Associates. Both of the ladies served their communities and party admirably for many years. May they rest in peace.
- The Erie County Conservative Party on December 9 will honor businessman Gene Vukelic with a Lifetime Achievement Award for Excellence in Community Service. Regardless of Mr. Vukelic’s political activities I have had a positive personal impression of him beginning in the 1970s when I worked at the Erie County Legislature. One of the most contentious issues of the time was a county “bottle bill,” which was not implemented locally but then several years later became law in the state. Mr. Vukelic was an honest and gentlemanly advocate in the issue. That was in the days when such things mattered much more than today. Congrats Gene!
- It looks like the Bills’ loss to Philadelphia Sunday evening, given the difficulty of the remaining schedule, brought an end to the playoffs and Super Bowl chase for 2023. The 2024 team will probably look a lot different than this year’s version, particularly on the defensive side and with the coaching staff.
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