Your guess is as good as mine. Coming off another disappointing playoff run, wholesale player changes, and lots of pre-season injuries, trying to project how the new season will turn out is pretty difficult.
For whatever such things are worth, national projections of the Bills’ chances for success have dropped considerably from just a couple years ago, when the team was seen as number one and headed to the Super Bowl. One recent report that had the Bills at no better than fourteenth in the league.
I don’t think it’s that bad but there are things that make you wonder such as:
- Josh Allen is one of the top two quarterbacks in the league but going into the new season he only has one receiver, Kahlil Shakir, who he threw to last season. The new crew, a couple of whom have been injured in training camp, are really unknowns, as is the number one draft choice, Keon Coleman.
- Matt Milano is again on injured reserve with his status unknown; two serious injuries in two years.
- Will Von Miller really be able to contribute to the team in a significant way?
- The secondary has also had its share of injuries and is being rebuilt with Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer gone. How good are they?
- There is a new defensive coordinator, Bobby Babich, who is in his first season as coordinator. Sean McDermott has handed over the play-calling responsibilities to Babich.
- McDermott and General Manager Brandon Beane have expressed confidence in placekicker Tyler Bass but lots of questions have been raised about accuracy. He completed six of seven attempts in the pre-season games, but only one was for more than 31 yards, and he missed that one from 51 yards out.
- The back-up quarterback spot is iffy even if Mitch Trubisky is able to play.
- On the positive side, Lancaster High School graduate Joe Andreessen making the roster is great news. He looked pretty good for a rookie in the pre-season.
And then there is the schedule, which is once again is a very difficult one. Here’s one way to break down the 17 games:
- Cannot and should not lose: Arizona; Tennessee; at Indianapolis
- Division games: Buffalo should be able to win both of the New England games, which come near the end of the season; the Bills also need to win at least one of the two games each with both Miami and New York.
- Tough but winnable: Jacksonville; at Seattle; at LA Rams
- Very tough: at Baltimore; at Houston; Kansas City; San Francisco; at Detroit
My guess is that the team can win ten or eleven games: all three games in the cannot lose category; plus at least four of the six division games; plus one or two of the three winnable games; and finally two of the five very tough games. All of this speculation, of course, depends on how things work out about the issues noted above, and the continued health of Josh Allen.
Ten or eleven wins should get the Bills another Eastern Division championship. The competition is questionable. Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa and his coach Mike McDaniel run up the numbers on offense but seem to have plateaued. The Jets’ Aaron Rodgers is 40 years old and he is not Tom Brady; the Athletic has him selected as MVP!
Ten or eleven games should get them into the playoffs. What happens then will probably depend on whether or not they can finally beat the Chiefs in a playoff game.
A hoodie over Highmark Stadium?
The Athletic last week speculated about the possible return of Bill Belichick to the coaching ranks next season. The article suggests four franchises as possibilities for his return: Dallas, the New York Giants, Philadelphia, and Buffalo. Belichick needs just 15 more wins to surpass Don Shula as the winningest coach in NFL history, and if he returns he would likely prefer a team that is already prepped for winning.
As to why Buffalo might be included in the possible landing spots for the hoodied-one, the Athletic notes: “While the Bills have won double-digit regular-season games in five consecutive seasons for the first time in franchise history, they haven’t gotten over the hump in the playoffs. If Sean McDermott can’t buck that trend, would ownership consider a run at Belichick?”
This blog has made similar observations about McDermott in the past. File this under “highly unlikely.”
Investments and sports
Those two subjects generally don’t go together much. But consider this:
- Erie County Comptroller Kevin Hardwick last week offered Bills fans with at least five thousand dollars to spare the opportunity to buy “Bills bonds” that would be used as part of the county’s financing of the new stadium. They will likely be 30-year bonds, so that commitment might be a bit long for some, although they could be sold on the secondary market depending on how interest rates are running at the time. It will be interesting to see how many fans signed up.
- Owning part of a major league team has always been a what-if-I-win-the-lottery dream for many sports fans. I recently turned that dream into reality. I became a part-owner of the MLB Atlanta Braves, a team I have followed off and on for many years. I purchased 10 shares at about $45/share of Atlanta Braves Holding Inc., which owns the team and some development property near the stadium where they play. I am what would be called a “minority stockholder.” Warren Buffet owns 224,000 shares. There are approximately 62 million outstanding shares of Atlanta Braves Holding Inc.
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