Top Wall Street executives are still reeling from the chaos caused by President Donald Trump's tariffs — and they're warning that we're about to see economic instability of a type that hasn't occurred in living memory, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday.
"Financiers came into the year excited for President Trump’s tenure, expecting corporate tax cuts and lower regulation to lift stocks, dealmaking and corporate confidence," reported Alexander Saeedy, AnnaMaria Andriotis, and Gina Heeb. "One quarter in, the tone is entirely different and executives are worried about tariffs and their impact, especially after the market gyrations of this month. Some economists are predicting a recession by the second half of 2025."
Trump initially announced so-called "reciprocal" tariffs of 10 to 49 percent on imports from virtually every country in the world based mainly on the U.S. trade deficit with each country, regardless of whether those countries actually have legal trade barriers and, in some cases, regardless of whether the region in question has trade at all or even people.
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After days of Republican infighting and plunging stock indices, Trump announced a 90-day period in which all countries will have their import tariffs reduced to the minimum of 10 percent, except for China, which will see even larger tariff hikes.
The announcement caused a stock rally, but markets remain wildly volatile and fluctuating — and still far lower than they were when Trump took office.
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, had a grim assessment: “This is different,” he said, comparing it to previous market shocks and recessions. “It’s a significant change we’ve never seen in our lives.”
Larry Fink, the head of BlackRock, agreed, saying, “In the short run, we have an economy that is at risk.”
The unveiling of the tariffs "surprised executives across the country, sent stock markets reeling and pushed down the price of supersafe Treasury bonds. Bankers said Friday that they are expecting businesses to pull back from big moves like deals and investments and worries are spreading about how much companies will earn this year," the report continued. Meanwhile, Fink, "whose firm BlackRock now oversees $11.6 trillion in assets, said the market downturn affects millions of people by hitting their retirement accounts and college-savings plans."
