Money is not the most important element in any election campaign, but dollars spent and cash on hand are certainly factors that indicate where candidates’ prospects stand. For New York politicians who are candidates in 2024 their second to last filings with the state Board of Elections before November 5 were due on September 30.
The state’s new public campaign financing program adds a level of intrigue to the elections in many of the 63 Senate and 150 Assembly districts. Whether it will make any difference in the results remains to be seen.
Here is a summary of the financials through September 30 for the key Western New York state legislative elections with some notes on the various elections:
- In the 142nd Assembly District the incumbent is Democrat Pat Burke. Burke has reported raising $25,962 since mid-July. His spending totals $13,725 and he had cash on hand of $39,706. He also has received $68,355 thus far from the state Public Campaign Finance Board (PCFB). His Republican opponent, Marc Priore, numbers are: $9,369 raised; $0 spent; and a balance of $19,851. He also received $69,175 from the PCFB. Party enrollment is Democratic by a two-to-one margin.
- Democrat Monica Wallace is the incumbent in the 143rd Assembly District. Over the past two and a half months she has raised $11,985; spent $31,528; and had $145,083 cash on hand. Wallace is likely to receive additional funding from the Democratic Assembly Campaign Committee. Her Republican opponent, Patrick Chludzinski, raised $19,890; received $110,317 in public funding; spent $0; had $29,705 available as of the end of September. He received $110,317 in public funding. Party registration in the district is two-to-one Democratic but Wallace won re-election in 2022 by a much smaller margin.
- There is no incumbent member of the Assembly in the 144th District. The Democratic candidate, Michelle Roman raised $7,387 since July; spent $972; and had a balance of $23,390. She received $60,072 from the state program. The Republican candidate, Paul Bologna, is the substitute for Michael Norris who is running unopposed for state Supreme Court. Bologna raised $113,644; spent $10,341; and had a balance of $103,303. The party registration in the district favors Republicans by a margin of about 4-to-3.
- In the 145th Assembly District incumbent Republican Angelo Morinello had a considerable money lead over his Democratic opponent, Jeffrey Elder. Morinello’s numbers: raised $4,580 plus $85,736 from the state; spent $28,753; and had cash on hand of $95,214. Elder raised $6,450 and received $51,418 from the state; he spent $8,414; and had a balance of $54,441. Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by about 8,000.
- In the 146th Assembly District the incumbent is Democrat Karen McMahon. She raised $25,394; spent $33,205; and had $75,202 available as of the end of September. The Republican candidate, Deborah Kilbourn, raised $2,565; spent $3,500; and had cash on hand of $470. There are approximately 13,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in the District.
- In the 147th Assembly District incumbent Republican David DiPietro largely depleted his campaign account in his successful primary win. Since July he has raised $19,234; spent $21,318; and had $30,617 available. Democrat Darci Cramer raised $98,331 including $82,418 from the state; spent $77,467; and had a balance of $32,005. There are 14,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats in the District.
- In the 63rd Senate District Democratic candidate April McCants-Baskin has raised $195,481, including $93,750 from the state; she spent $117,783; and had a balance of $166,028. Republican Jack Moretti has raised $19,234; spent $21,318; and had cash on hand of $30,617. Moretti has applied to participate in the state funding program but has not yet received a disbursement. Democrats outnumber Republicans in the district by a 4-to-1 margin.
Erie County
The major contested local race in Western New York is for Erie County District Attorney. Acting DA Mike Keane, the Democratic and Working Families candidate, raised $128,290; spent $141,891; and had $362,352 cash on hand at the end of September. The Republican and Conservative candidate, James Gardner, raised $211,046; spent $305,955; and had $7,323 available. Keane has loaned his committee $50,000. Gardner has loaned his committee $210,000 in addition to the $75,000 he provided his committee in July. There are 126,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in the County.
Both candidates are up with TV ads. Keane’s commercials report on his work in the DA’s office over the past several years while highlighting his support from local police unions. Gardner’s ads include Republican crime talking points; he wants to “make crime illegal again.” So I guess that would mean that, say someone has been convicted of 34 felonies, then that person should receive jail time or some other punishment for the crimes he committed.
Turnout, turnout, turnout
The heightened attention that the presidential election brings to bear will have an outsized impact on the number of voters. The polarization of the electorate will require both parties, while competing for a relatively small portion of voters who are uncommitted, to emphasize turnout of their respective bases. That is as true in Erie County as it is Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.
It is likely that in Erie County the turnout this year will be more than double what it was last year (about 205,000) when local elections dominated public attention. Many old observations about politics have been turned on their heads in the past few months, but one statistical factor is likely to still hold true: the larger the turnout, the larger the share of people voting Democratic. Republican party leaders throughout the country, through their efforts in fighting mail-in voting and early voting, have repeatedly shown that they would prefer to keep turnout, at least in a general sense, as low as possible.
The Republicans, it seems, are having some trouble trying to figure out what to say or do. In a recent speech party leader Donald Trump said: “We’re here today because early voting begins in Pennsylvania over the next two weeks, and we need each and every one of you to go out.” He then said: “Now we have this stupid stuff where you can vote 45 days early… I wonder what the hell happens during that 45?” Trump is 78 years old and frequently has such cognitive issues.
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