Some facts, observations, and heard-on-the-streets

The weather is beginning to look like fall.  The Bills: 4 wins and 2 losses is not bad. The other good news:  just three weeks until Election Day.

Here are some facts, observations, and heard-on-the-streets:

  • I am not impartial about such things, but my years of experience with politics make me think that while some Republican politicos built a Donald Trump for President campaign that looks good on paper, the reality is that the candidate himself is unraveling badly.  He just cannot escape rehashing his grievances from the past and throwing insults instead of talking about issues.  He has dodged another debate and an interview on 60 Minutes because he and/or his handlers realize that he will make a fool of himself.  His rambling incoherence in hours-long speeches are signs of declining cognitive abilities.
  • Even though he is running for president of the United States Trump has had time for his money-making schemes:  among them, golden sneakers, Truth Social stock, crypto, trading cards, and the Trump version of the Bible.  How ironic that a candidate who is so committed to a trade war with China had his “American” Bibles printed in China; cost $3, sales price $60.
  • Kamala Harris is not the perfect candidate.  I have, however, never seen any such person.  Her calm confidence has moved her along very well.  Granted the polling shows that everything is very close, but mostly she has been ahead in the national polls and ahead or within the margin of error in the battleground states.  Turnout will decide the election.
  • It’s going to be hard for Dems to hold the Senate with the lost West Virginia seat a foregone conclusion and very tough races in Montana and Ohio.
  • The fight for control of the House of Representatives is amazingly tight considering all the gerrymandered districts that Republicans in red states have created.  Nancy Pelosi has bemoaned the loss of seats in New York in 2022, but what about the Biden districts in California that went to the Republicans two years ago?  Democrats need to pick up a net of just four seats nationwide to retake control.  Two or three of those seats may come from New York, leaving the remainder of the country to come up the other two or three other seats that are needed.
  • You may have seen a TV commercial running dozens of times a few weeks ago with Congressman Nick Langworthy explaining the services provided by his office.  You might think it was a political ad, but there was this disclaimer in small print at the bottom of the last frames of the ad:   “Paid for by official funds authorized by the House of Representatives.”  I assume “official funds” means taxpayers’ money. I contacted the Congressman’s office a week ago to ask what the “official funds” source was; what TV markets the ad ran in; and how much it cost in total.  Langworthy’s office referred me to some House administrative person.  As of the close of business on October 14th I haven’t received a reply.
  • Democratic candidates in Erie County should benefit from the likely large turnout of voters on November 5.  As noted in a previous post, state money has been pouring in for several state legislative candidates.  The big question is whether state money is really making state legislative races more competitive.
  • Hopefully there will be a thorough review of the use of that state money.  Tens of millions are being disbursed among approximately 200 candidates.  Former Republican Assemblyman Brian Kolb, who is co-chair of the Public Campaign Finance Board, recently told Politico the state-level system “has enough ‘spot checks’ like phone calls to donors to verify their identities.  “I haven’t seen anything glaring that jumps out and says, Oh my goodness, we have a major problem here.  We’re going to have to really wait and get a final opinion about the first year of implementation because there are things you learn or things that could be tightened up.”  The program is being run in conjunction with the state Board of Elections, so how could anything possibly go wrong?
  • The race for Erie County District Attorney is getting very expensive.  As of their September 30th campaign financial filings Mike Keane has raised a total of $496,800 so far; he loaned his committee $50,000.  Republican James Gardner has raised $53,126; has contributed $75,000 to the committee; and has loaned his committee $210,000 thus far.  Gardner is part of the Butler family, the very wealthy original founders of the Buffalo Evening (sic) News.
  • Gardner is using Big Dog Strategies, headed by former local resident Chris Grant, as his media consultant.  In 2022 Grant as the campaign media consultant gave Long Island and the entire country the king of all congressional liars, George Santos.  Gardner is letting Grant speak for him about the questionable issues raised in a WGRZ story about the campaign; Gardner declined an interview request.  Why?
  • There’s a new look for the Elma Republican Committee following their recent reorganization.  The Committee elected former Erie County Comptroller Stefan Mychijliw as their Secretary.
  • While he continues to live in Erie County, Mychajliw is now the news director of a Long Island weekly (The South Shore Press) which, according to a recent story in the Investigative Post, leans far right on the political spectrum.  Among the columnists appearing in the paper is none other than George Santos, who has been evidently looking for things to do after his brief tenure in the House while he awaits sentencing for his guilty plea in a federal corruption case.
  • As if the Catholic Diocese of Buffalo didn’t need more news that might deter parishioners from donating to their churches and the Diocese, the lawyer for the Diocese in a recent appearance in Bankruptcy Court admitted that the potential value of certain parish property was a consideration in deciding which parishes to close.  The Diocese’s attorney told Judge Carl Bucki “I think that was a factor, but not a driving factor.”  “Driving factor,” I suppose, being a matter of interpretation depending upon how someone views the entire mess.
  • Apropos of the Diocese’s problems, enter singer-songwriter Paul Anka, who gave a great concert in Niagara Falls this past Friday.  In a brief monologue between songs he said that he is confused about some things in the world.  He went to confession recently to confess his sins.  In the confessional as the priest turned to him, Anka told the priest, “you go first.”

Twitter/X  @kenkruly

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What to expect when you’re expecting a budget

Gov. Kathy Hochul announced that lawmakers had overall reached an agreement over the state budget last week but details are still being fleshed out.

DAYS THE BUDGET IS LATE: 41 

SPENDING SPECIFICS: Crucial state budget details — including aid for New York City, the structure of a surcharge on high-value second homes and the contours of major pension changes — are yet to be fully ironed out.

Gov. Kathy Hochul last week announced a "general agreement" for a $268 billion spending plan — but without specifics on many items. The closed-door discussions remain underway in Albany and none of the nine remaining budget bills have been printed.

The state budget is now destined to be at least six weeks past its March 31 due date. Yet Hochul is counting on voters to appreciate her policy wins and not focus on what has been an at-times messy process.

Hammering out these final specifics won't make or break a final deal. But the fine print will matter for how much New York plans for its massive tax-and-spend plan — impacting some 19 million people.

Here's what's to still expect when you're expecting a budget.

New York City aid: More help for the Big Apple is on the way from Albany. Lawmakers and Hochul are discussing additional foundation aid, potentially changing the formula for how public education spending is determined, and more cash for homeless students. At the same time, enabling legislation for pension amortization is being considered.

Those measures are designed to help New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani close what's left of a $5.4 billion budget gap. And they come on top of the additional $1.5 billion Hochul agreed to earlier this year.

The governor told reporters Monday morning her office has been working well with the Mamdani administration to fix the city's budget woes.

"There's quite a bit that needs to be OK'd by New York state," she said. "I spent last night talking to the mayor, Friday night talking to the mayor. It's been a great level of cooperation."

Pied-à-terre structure: Lawmakers are yet to see any detailed budget language for Hochul's proposed surcharge on non-primary second residences worth $5 million and above. How that surcharge is structured — including how much it will rely on a home's assessed value — will matter for how many residences are actually captured by the tax.

Overhauling Tier 6: Overhauling the Tier 6 pension category is a potentially costly endeavor. Hochul and lawmakers are now considering what's being called a "skinny" version of a plan originally pushed by unions, according to two people familiar with the talks.

The change would lower the retirement age for teachers to 58 after 30 years of service, but it would not alter how much they contribute from their paychecks. For the rest of the public workforce, contributions of no lower than 3 percent of a worker's take-home pay is under consideration, but no change would be made to their retirement age.

The move is expected to cost $500 million combined for the state, local governments and school districts. That's far less than the $1.5 billion proposal advanced earlier this year by the New York State AFL-CIO.

Buffer zones: As POLITICO Pro reported earlier, lawmakers and Hochul have weighed a 50-foot protest buffer zone that would allow local officials to expand it as they see fit. Having those zones around houses of worship is largely agreed to, but working through the specifics remains a sticking point. Nick Reisman

From the Capitol

Three New Yorkers linked to a cruise ship with a hantavirus outbreak are being quarantined in Nebraska.

HANTAVIRUS IN NEW YORK: Three New Yorkers were aboard a cruise ship at the center of an international hantavirus outbreak, state Health Commissioner James McDonald said in a statement this afternoon. The three passengers were sent to the Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska, where they are expected to be subject to a 42-day monitoring period, according to McDonald.

"While the Department is working in close coordination with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and local health departments to gather information, at this point it is unclear how long they will stay in Nebraska and whether, or when those individuals intend to return to New York,” McDonald said.

“At this point, it is important to emphasize that there is no immediate risk to the public. We will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates as needed," he added.

When asked about the threat of the virus to New Yorkers, Hochul said the state health agency is working with the CDC, and she is monitoring the federal government to make sure officials have the capacity to handle any potential outbreak.

“I want to make sure that the CDC is capable of handling something that could be larger than they are predicting, and I say that because I know that over a year ago, there were significant cuts to the CDC,” Hochul said. “We have outstanding resources here in the state of New York…so I’ve activated them to start preparing New York for worst-case scenarios and hope they do not come.”

She noted that the state is putting together a plan to address any spread of the virus, but she does not believe it will turn into another coronavirus pandemic. She said she will begin doing briefings if it spreads beyond the three individuals flown in from the ship. — Katelyn Cordero 

GOV’S SOCIAL ACCOUNT GETS PLAUDITS: The state government’s eyebrow-raising, joke-telling, irreverent social media accounts were honored with a Webby Awards “Honoree” award last week, Hochul’s office told Playbook.

The accounts, which go under the handle @NYGov on Instagram and X, are separate from the “Governor Hochul Press Office” account, which drew the ire of Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy last week when it mocked him for his age.

@NYGov, also known as “State of New York” on X, most recently posted messages like “it’s hole filling season” to spread the word about the state’s pothole reporting hotline on X, or "UNALIVE THOSE FLYS" as an Instagram PSA on the invasive spotted lantern fly.

“I’ve always believed that government is for the people, and in order to reach people, we need to communicate like them,” said Milly Czerwinski, a digital content strategist who works in Hochul’s comms shop and runs the account. “NYGov’s oddity and authenticity has broken down the traditional bureaucratic barriers to reach millions of people. Being weird works — this award is proof of that.” Jason Beeferman

FROM CITY HALL

The Civilian Complaint Review Board, which investigates and prosecutes cases of police misconduct, has received Chi Ossé’s claim and is reviewing it, a spokesperson confirmed.

CCR-CHI COMPLAINT: City Councilmember Chi Ossé filed a misconduct complaint today against an NYPD officer who arrested him, advancing a case that stands to drive a further wedge between the police department and Mayor Mamdani.

The complaint, which Ossé shared with POLITICO, alleges the officer used excessive force during the April 22 arrest in Brooklyn, where the Council member and others were protesting the planned eviction of a woman who claims she’s the victim of deed theft.

The Civilian Complaint Review Board, which investigates and prosecutes cases of police misconduct, has received Ossé’s claim and is reviewing it, a spokesperson confirmed.

Ossé, a democratic socialist and ally of Mamdani, told POLITICO he believes the arresting officer violated his civil rights. “My rights were violated, but more importantly, my responsibility to my community and constituents demands a fact-finding,” said Ossé, who claims he suffered a concussion from being slammed to the ground.

The NYPD previously said Ossé and three other protesters were only arrested after refusing verbal commands to stop blocking access to the property where the eviction was set to be executed.

A spokesperson for Mamdani — who called video of Ossé’s arrest "incredibly concerning” last month — said in response to the Council member’s complaint that "the mayor respects the independence of the CCRB and will allow the disciplinary process to play out based on the evidence, established procedures, and the NYPD’s disciplinary matrix."

Mamdani, a longtime NYPD critic, faces a fraught situation in responding to Ossé’s complaint.

If he doesn’t back up his fellow democratic socialist, Mamdani is likely to anger his allies on the left. On the flipside, if he condemns the arresting officer, he risks drawing the ire of NYPD leaders, including Commissioner Jessica Tisch, as well as the department’s rank-and-file cops.

Read more about the CCRB and Ossé from Chris Sommerfeldt in POLITICO.

CASE CLOSED: Council member Vickie Paladino has reached a settlement with the City Council to resolve disciplinary charges focused on her controversial social media posts.

The takeaway? The Council has withdrawn its disciplinary charges, and Paladino is dropping her lawsuit challenging the proceedings.

The agreement, filed in Manhattan Supreme Court on Monday, effectively dismisses the charges and cancels an ethics hearing that could have led to censure, fines or expulsion. As part of the settlement, Paladino must delete three posts cited in the case. She must also remove “Council Woman” from her personal X account display name within 48 hours of court approval to communicate to the public a clearer separation between her official posts, which are subject to some of the Council’s rules and regulations, and her personal opinions, one member familiar with the parameters of the settlement told Playbook.

The case stemmed from a string of inflammatory posts starting in December where, in a deleted post, she called for the “expulsion of Muslims from western nations,” prompting the committee to look into her conduct.

In February, she posted that New York was under “foreign occupation” following Mamdani’s appointment of a top immigration official. Paladino questioned whether the administration included “one single actual American” and later described a photo of Muslim sanitation workers praying as part of an “Islamic conquest.”

The Council’s Rules and Ethics Committee had charged Paladino with disorderly conduct and violations of its anti-harassment and discrimination policy in March.

Paladino sued to block the proceedings, arguing she was being targeted for her conservative views and that the discipline violated her First Amendment rights.

As part of the settlement, Paladino must issue a statement saying she did not intend to make colleagues or staff feel “unwelcomed or unsafe.” Council member Sandra Ung, who chairs the ethics committee, issued her own statement Monday afternoon saying the resolution “strikes the balance” between protecting staff and lawmakers’ free speech rights.

Both sides agreed to issue limited public statements and refrain from further comment. — Gelila Negesse

FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

Rep.Pat Ryan is the latest member of the New York delegation to weigh in the NY-12 primary election.

EYES ON AI: Rep. Pat Ryan is backing state Assemblymember Alex Bores to succeed retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler, making him the latest member of the New York delegation to weigh in on one of the state’s most competitive primary elections.

In making his endorsement, the Hudson Valley Democrat cited the high-profile AI fight that’s become a central theme of the race as a key reason for backing Bores.

“He’s going to be the next member of Congress for the New York 12th District,” Ryan said at an event in Midtown with Bores today. “If you have any doubt, you don’t have to take my word for it — follow the money. Look at the incredible unprecedented amount … It’s because these tech billionaires are terrified, they’re terrified of Alex specifically.”

The millions of dollars in spending by a pro-artificial intelligence super PAC against Bores — an alum-turned-critic of data analytics company Palantir and a sponsor of the AI safety RAISE Act in the state Legislature — has also drawn an influx of money from regulation-friendly AI and tech-affiliated groups to boost him.

Bores’ campaign said that both he and Ryan “share a belief that the next Congress must take decisive action to regulate artificial intelligence before this transformative technology outpaces the rules meant to govern it” — a debate that continues to rage on in Washington and globally.

Bores is viewed as one of the top contenders for the 12th District, which covers a large swath of Manhattan. He’s up against Assemblymember Micah Lasher, Kennedy scion Jack Schlossberg and anti-Trump commentator George Conway, as well as a handful of lesser-known challengers. Public polling has been sparse in the race, and internal polls from earlier this year don’t show a clear front-runner. Madison Fernandez

IN OTHER NEWS

CLOCK’S TICKING: Mamdani has less than a month to fill two longstanding vacancies on the Metropolitan Transportation Authority board — and the appointments could be key for his mission to make the city’s buses “fast and free.” (THE CITY)

NECK AND NECK: Hochul made a joint campaign appearance with Rep. Dan Goldman who’s running for reelection in New York's 10th congressional district, with a primary challenge from Mamdani-backed Brad Lander. (Gothamist)

SARCONE DOGGED: The top prosecutor in the U.S. attorney’s office for the Northern District of New York is accused of misconduct, according to the watchdog organization Campaign for Accountability. (POLITICO Pro)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.

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