The petitioning process is nearly over and November election line-ups for many offices in Erie County are nearly set. There is still, however, some sorting out to do.
The major race is for mayor of Buffalo with all six Democrats submitting sufficient signatures to qualify for the June 24th ballot. Originally five of the six candidates had general objections filed against their petitions. The petitions for only one, Michael Gainer, faced the more complicated challenge of dealing with the filing of specific objections.
A bi-partisan Board of Elections staff review of Gainer’s petitions determined that he had the sufficient number of signatures required to qualify for the primary. The Commissioners of the Board will meet on April 24th to review that determination. Court action could also follow. Petitions for candidates running for office in the 2nd and 7th County legislative districts as well as local candidates in Lackawanna, Cheektowaga, and the City of Tonawanda will also be reviewed by the Board on that date.
Besides the mayoral race there is a possible primary in the 2nd legislative district, where appointed legislator Taisha St. Jean Tard has been challenged by former legislator Betty Jean Grant. Grant’s petitions apparently lacked the required 500 valid registered Democrats signatures to qualify but the Commissioners will rule on that this week.
There will be a scattering of primaries for local offices in the county. The major contest in the towns will be in Amherst where the endorsed Republican candidate for supervisor, Dan Gagliardo, is being opposed by Dennis Hoban. This is the first year that veteran Republican Party leader Bob Davis is serving as Chairman of the Amherst Republican Committee and the first year that political veteran Chuck Eaton is the Chairman of the Amherst Democratic Committee. Hoban is the endorsed Conservative Party candidate for supervisor.
All that being said, it is likely that petitioning has begun anew for one or more candidates who are looking to secure a spot on the November election ballot regardless of how party primaries may turn out. Acting Mayor Chris Scanlon has indicated that he will circulate petitions for an independent line. Given the mess involving Chief Daniel “D.J.” Granville, a member of Sheriff John Garcia’s staff, might someone try to get an independent line for sheriff on the November ballot?
Petitioning is somewhat easier to put together for an independent line. Only 1,500 valid signatures are required to qualify for a countywide race or the election for mayor of Buffalo. A total 2,000 signatures were required to qualify for a spot on the primary ballot for those positions.
Petitions can be signed by anyone who had not signed a previous party petition for the office, meaning that besides Democratic, Republican, Working Families or Conservative registered voters who had not signed a primary petition, voters unaffiliated with any party can sign. There are more than 169,000 registered voters in Erie County who are not affiliated with a party; more than 36,000 in Buffalo. Independent petitions could begin circulation on April 15 and must be filed with the Board of Elections by May 27.
There has been some discussions in the community about providing ranked-choice voting in Erie County, as is done in New York City. Ranked-choice voting is an election system in which voters rank multiple candidates for an office in order of preference. Where no candidate gets a majority of the vote, the second, third, fourth, and fifth choices indicated on a ballot are used to reallocate votes after the lowest candidate by vote total is eliminated. The second choice of the eliminated candidates are reallocated among the remaining candidates until one candidate accumulates a majority of the votes cast.
The petitioning that we have observed locally this year, which is similar to most other years, shows that in pretty much all local elections in the county there are at most just two candidates for any particular election. There are very few party primaries. In more than 40 percent of the local elections this year there is just one candidate.
The Democratic primary for mayor of Buffalo, of course, is the exception to that generality so perhaps in future contests ranked-choice voting in the city would be of some value. The history even for mayoral primaries in the city, however, shows that it is rare to have more than two or three candidates for the office.
Local elections in even-numbered election years
A state law enacted a couple years ago requires that elections for most local offices outside of cities must be re-set so that the elections occur in even-numbered years. That would mean that most local offices on the ballot this year would either run for one or three-year terms to get in sync with the law.
As often happens, however, that law is being challenged in court. Protracted legal proceedings are still ongoing, so if that law is ever implemented it is likely to happen no sooner than two years from now.
Two months until primary day
The clock is clicking down to the June 24th primary election so any time now we will begin to see mailers, door hangers, TV and radio commercials promoting candidates for Buffalo mayor. Those things are expensive. Chris Scanlon and Sean Ryan have already demonstrated their fundraising abilities. How the others are doing with that remains to be seen. Campaign financial reports of candidates in this year’s primaries are next due to be filed by May 23rd.
Scanlon, of course, had the official responsibility for submitting a new city budget which raises taxes, provides for no layoffs of personnel, and requests state approval for the creation of a hotel occupancy tax and the sale of the city-owned parking ramps to raise revenues intended to fund city operations. None of the other candidates, including Republican James Gardner, have thus far offered any alternative proposals for the city’s new budget.
Even if the state Legislature were to approve the parking authority proposal, one question remains: how to fill budget gaps in subsequent years. Are there any other city assets that could be sold to raise tens of millions of dollars each year for future financial holes? The answer is probably no, so the impending financial crisis would simply roll forward another year if the parking authority is created.
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