By its very nature, the race for mayor of Buffalo always highlights primary election activity in Erie County. The city’s population, the wide variety of issues, and the city’s financial woes dominate media interest. That is what is happening in 2025. TV ads, phone calls, and mailers are directing the public’s attention.
Aside from the Democratic mayoral primary, however, things are relatively quiet in Erie County. There are two Democratic races in the City of Tonawanda and two in the Town of Hamburg.
There are almost three times the number of Republican primaries in Erie County compared to the Democrats, highlighted by five elections for town supervisor. Those primaries and the candidates running include:
- Alden – Colleen Pautler and Michael Retzlaff
- Amherst – Dan Gagliardo and Dennis Hoban
- Elma – Wayne Clark and Lee Kupczyk
- Hamburg – Joshua Collins and Beth Farrell Lorentz
- Orchard Park – Eugene Majchrzak and Joesph Liberti
Turnout in the past five Democratic mayoral primary elections in Buffalo has ranged from 23,018 (2013) to 43,742 (2009). The average for the five elections was 29,566, which is about 30 percent of total Democratic enrollment.
In 2021 John Garcia defeated Karen Healy-Case in the Republican primary for sheriff. Just 13 percent of the registered Republicans voted countywide in that election. In the Town of Amherst, where the Republicans have a major primary battle going on this year, turnout was about 12 percent four years ago.
There are five weeks remaining until the June 24th primary but only 24 days before early voting starts on June 14th. Candidates need to be in high gear to have a chance for victory. The number of votes that a candidate receives depends on voter interest, party and committee organizational efforts, and of course, the value that each particular candidate brings to the election. Past turnouts offer some clues about the targeted number of votes needed to win a race.
In Buffalo Democratic turnout could be in the range of the average for the past five mayoral races, which is about 30 percent of the approximately 97,000 total Democratic registrants. At this moment the campaigns of acting Mayor Chris Scanlon and Senator Sean Ryan seem poised to gather the largest portions of the total vote. Garnell Whitfield, Rasheed Wyatt, and Anthony Tyson Thompson have been less visible in the race. But then again, not many folks saw India Walton’s upset victory coming in the Democratic primary four years ago.
In a field of five candidates, the winning candidate might just collect twelve to fifteen thousand votes. The key question is, where are those votes coming from. The best turnout numbers in the past five elections came from the Delaware District, a part of the base of support for Ryan. As of February 2025 there are 12,524 Democrats in Delaware.
The South District, which Scanlon has represented for twelve years, has 10,136 affiliated Democrats. Good turnouts have been generated in the District in past elections.
The Masten and Ellicott Districts formed a key part of Mayor Byron Brown’s base of support. Combined, those two districts have nearly 27,000 registered Democrats.
Scanlon, Ryan, Whitfield, Wyatt, and Thompson will, of course, collect votes from all nine Council districts. A super strong showing in one or more districts, however, can give a candidate a large share of the total vote that the winning candidate for mayor will receive.
In the Republican primaries in the towns total turnouts will vary depending on candidate and organizational abilities. Past primary history, however, would seem to indicate that turnouts in the range of twelve to fifteen percent are likely – considerably lower than for Democrats in Buffalo. In the largest town with a Republican race for supervisor, Amherst, a total vote of about 3,000 is suggested. So the winning candidate just needs to identify and get to the polls a few more than 1,500 relatives, friends, and neighbors to win the primary election.
All of this, of course, is pure speculation. Something might happen in the next 24 to 35 days that propels one candidate over the other(s). History, however, has a way of repeating itself. Stay tuned.
The 2025 Bills schedule
The NFL has an amazing ability to stretch a football fan’s attention, going beyond the regular season, which starts in early September through the playoffs, ending with the Super Bowl in February. The annual draft in April; the announcement of the season schedule in May; and the start of training camp in mid-July help fill the non-game void, along with the exhibition games in August.
I will take a deeper look at how the season may shape up in a few weeks but the schedule of games certainly sparks a lot of “looks like a great game” comments. Five prime time games, including contests against the Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, and Philadelphia Eagles, are certainly highlights. Only seven of the seventeen games are scheduled for Sundays at 1 PM.
The goodbye-to-the old-stadium season should bring a lot of excitement. How many weeks are there until September?
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