With an election schedule that begins in early February elections in New York State are heading into the home stretch. Election Day is less than 50 days away, with early voting starting in less than six weeks.
Except for a flurry of activity involving fewer than ten major party primaries, the campaigns for local public office have been rather quiet. Part of the reason is the very low number of elections that actually involve a contest this year.
In Erie County in 2023 there will be a total 149 public offices on the ballot ranging from trustees of the Lancaster Public Library to Erie County Executive. A review of candidate petition filings indicates that only 60 (40 percent) of the total number have contests involving Democratic and Republican candidates. Many of the elections where there are both Democratic and Republican candidates would not be considered truly competitive.
Erie County Republican Elections Commissioner Ralph Mohr has refused to complete the basic obligation of his office to certify primary election results that in turn set the November election ballots. The following information, therefor, is derived from comparing the offices that are up for election this year with the petitions filed for the various offices in April. Here is a quick summary of offices on the ballot in Erie County and candidate status:
- Erie County. There are 15 county offices on the ballot, but seven have already in effect been filled by a lack of competition. Four county legislator positions and the three Family Court seats do not have contests.
- City of Buffalo. Out of the 11 offices on the ballot, five council seats plus a City Court seat and the Comptroller are unopposed. There are only minor party candidates in the other four Council districts, mostly including candidates on the Working Families Party line who lost their Democratic primary races.
- In the City of Lackawanna only one of the three offices on the ballot (mayor) is contested while in the City of Tonawanda all five of the offices are contested.
- In the City of Buffalo the only Republican candidate for any of the city’s elected positions is David McElroy in the Lovejoy District. Buffalo’s estimated 2022 population is 276,486.
- In the towns of Alden, Boston, Colden, Concord, Elma, Holland, Marilla, Sardinia and Wales there are no Democrats on the election ballots. The total 2022 estimated population of those nine towns is about 70,000.
- Combining the population of Buffalo and those nine towns means that in municipalities that include more than 36 percent of the total county population, there are no local elections.
- In the remaining 15 towns in Erie County there are 33 positions that are not contested. That includes several town justice positions, an office where bi-partisan endorsements are not out of the ordinary.
In the past two elections in the four-year election cycle that included the election for Erie County Executive turnout has been low. It was 25 percent countywide in 2015 and approximately 35 percent in 2019.
It is a party strategy to in some cases to avoid running candidates in certain municipalities in order to suppress the general election vote total. In those areas the other major party could benefit from contested elections that bring out a larger number of voters.
The Republican Party has for many years used this approach in the City of Buffalo and it has worked. In 2015 and in 2019 total turnout in the city was approximately 18 and 26 percent respectively. Countywide Democratic candidates have been negatively affected over the years by this stratagem. Democrats would likely have won more elections for the county offices of sheriff, county clerk, and comptroller if Democratic voters in Buffalo had turned out in numbers more in line with turnout in suburban and rural areas.
Republicans will tell you, with some justification, that their chances of winning are negligible in Buffalo because of the overwhelming Democratic voter enrollment in the city. Currently the Dems outnumber the Reps in the city by a margin of 7:1 – over 85,000 voters. In some Council districts in the city the margins are much greater, such as is in the Masten District when there are nearly 24 registered Democrats for every registered Republican.
Likewise, in the previously noted nine rural towns where there are no Democrats running for local office this year, Republican enrollments generally far exceed those of the Democrats. Like in the city, a lack of local contests undoubtedly reduces potential voter turnout.
The State Legislature earlier this year approved legislation that would shift all local and countywide elections outside of New York City to even-numbered years when presidential or gubernatorial elections are being held. In even-numbered years turnout is considerably higher than in odd-numbered years. Republican suggest that such a switch is designed to help elect Democrats, but as was seen in 2022 Republican turnout substantially outran Democrats in many areas. The bill has not yet been sent to Governor Kathy Hochul for her consideration.
What all of this means is that in 2023 voter turnout in Erie County and in many other areas will be particularly low. Countywide numbers in Erie County will be likely be in the 20 to 25 percent range. In Buffalo the number will most likely not exceed 15 percent.
Election success always depends upon which candidates and party do their best to get out their enrolled voters. It is a challenge for both parties. The lack of attention and excitement in local races this year will depress the numbers for both parties.
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