The Supreme Court just handed down some ominous news for LBGTQ youth

Transgender rights supporters and opponent rally outside of the Supreme Court as the high court hears arguments in a case on transgender health rights on December 4, 2024 in Washington, DC. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

The Supreme Court announced on Monday that it will hear Chiles v. Salazar, a challenge to a Colorado law preventing most mental health professionals from offering “conversion therapy” — a discredited method of counseling that attempts to turn LGBTQ patients cisgender and heterosexual (or at least make patients act that way) — to people under age 18.

The Colorado law at issue in Chiles prohibits licensed therapists from engaging in “any practice or treatment … that attempts or purports to change an individual’s sexual orientation or gender identity,” and it includes an exemption for counselors “engaged in the practice of religious ministry.”

According to a 2023 dissent by Justice Samuel Alito, 20 states plus the District of Columbia have laws restricting conversion therapy. As a federal appeals court that upheld Washington State’s law targeting this practice explained, “every major medical, psychiatric, psychological, and professional mental health organization opposes the use of conversion therapy.”

The American Psychological Association, for example, says that conversion therapy “‘puts individuals at a significant risk of harm’ and is not effective in changing a person’s gender identity or sexual orientation.”

The Chiles case raises difficult questions under the First Amendment (if you want to read a deeper dive into these questions, I explore them here). In short, however, the central question is whether a restriction on what people can talk about with their therapist violates constitutional free speech protections.

The First Amendment, as many states with conversion therapy laws have argued, historically has not been understood to protect malpractice or similar misconduct by licensed professionals, even if that misconduct only involves speech. A lawyer cannot tell their client “nothing will happen to you if you go rob a bank” without risking professional sanction. Nor can a physician cite the First Amendment to avoid a murder trial if they tell a patient to “go drink a jug of arsenic.”

Much of the case will likely rest on the Court’s decision in NIFLA v. Becerra (2018), which provides ammunition to both sides of the Chiles case. NIFLA held that “speech is not unprotected merely because it is uttered by ‘professionals,’” so that’s certainly helpful language for proponents of conversion therapy. But NIFLA also said that “[s]tates may regulate professional conduct, even though that conduct incidentally involves speech,” and it added that regulations of professional malpractice “fall within the traditional purview of state regulation of professional conduct.”

It’s always a little dangerous to predict how the Supreme Court may decide a particular case, but this Supreme Court has a 6-3 Republican majority, and it has not been a strong defender of LGBTQ youth. Last December, the Court heard oral arguments in a case asking if states may ban many medical treatments for transgender people under the age of 18, and the Court’s Republicans appeared eager to uphold these bans.

Should the Court strike down Colorado’s law, it will need to wrestle with how to do so without eviscerating every state’s ability to sanction malpractice. If a state cannot prevent licensed therapists from engaging in controversial practices that are rejected by all of the relevant professional organizations, why can it sanction doctors who promote quack treatments for Covid-19? Or who spread false information about vaccines to their patients?

Colorado’s best shot at defending its law, in other words, is likely to point to the intolerable consequences of stripping states of their ability to sanction malpractice, at least when that malpractice results from a conversation between a patient and a client. But it is far from clear whether this Supreme Court will care about those consequences.

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Republicans are on the wrong track for holding onto their congressional majorities, according to a new data analysis.

CNN's Harry Enten crunched the numbers on a series of new polling that found Americans are concerned about the direction the country is headed, and the data analyst said they seem to be in the mood for a change in leadership heading into next year's midterm elections.

"I like going traveling, we all do," Enten said. "Look, you know what it was, the NBC News poll came out this weekend, and I saw this wrong track number, and it just kind of jumped out to me because it was 66 percent, and one of the things I always like to look at is, you know, Donald Trump historically has done better than his polling suggested. But these right track-wrong track numbers have generally tracked with what actually the country is feeling. We see 66 percent there, more than three in five Americans who say the country is on the wrong track. Ipsos, 61 percent, MU, Marquette University Law School, 64 percent, Gallup, 74 percent of Americans say they are dissatisfied with the state of the nation."

"You see it on your screen right there, and all of these numbers, all of these numbers that I could find were the highest percentage who said that the country was on the wrong track since Donald Trump took office," Enten added. "It's not just Trump's poll numbers, it's disapproval that's going higher and higher and higher. It's the wrong track numbers that are going higher and higher, as well."

That's quite a turnaround from the start of Trump's second term, Enten said.

"Yeah, it's a huge change – it's a huge change," he said. "Think that the country is on the wrong track or the right track, you go back to April, May – look, the clear majority of Americans thought that the country was on the wrong track, at 58 percent, but you see 38 percent, a 20-point difference here. Look at that: What we've seen is a ballooning of this, a ballooning. Now you take the average of the polls, right, and now we're talking well north on average."

"Two and three Americans say that the country is on the wrong track now," Enten added. "Less than three in 10 Americans say that the country is on the right track, and when we look at this back in the going into the 2024 election, right, the election in which the Democratic Party was pushed out of power, this number looks a whole heck of a lot. This right track number looks a whole heck of a lot what it looked like going into 2024 election. This 66 percent looks a whole heck of a lot like that number going into the 2024 election."

That's an ominous sign for Republicans heading into next year's election, he said.

"President's party didn't lose House seats, midterms since 1978, percentage said the country was on the wrong track, 46 percent in 2002, 38 percent in 1998," Enten said. "The 66 percent now, the 66 percent, a lot of numbers on the screen right now who say the country is on the wrong track? This doesn't look anything like those midterms where the president's party didn't lose. The Republican Party is on track to lose the House of Representatives if the wrong track numbers look anything like they do right now."


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Nick Anderson is a Pulitzer Prize-winning editorial cartoonist.