As of post time, the Bills could draft no higher than 4th and no lower than 19th (haha). I’m not claiming this to be infallible — the actual draft order for sure, I’m not messing with strength of schedule yet, see Joe B. for that — but some things to consider regarding Bills draft order:

*1. Indy (1-13) – vs. Houston, at Jacksonville

– Probability of No. 1 pick: 50%

*2. Minnesota (2-12) – at Washington, vs. Chicago

*3. St. Louis (2-12) – at Pittsburgh, vs. San Francisco

4. Jacksonville (4-10) — at Tennessee, vs. Indianapolis

5. Cleveland (4-10) —  at Baltimore, vs. Pittsburgh

6. Tampa Bay (4-10) —  at Carolina, at Atlanta

7.  Washington (5-9) – vs. Minnesota, at Philadelphia

8. Buffalo (5-9) —  vs. Denver, at New England

9. Miami (5-9) —  at New England, vs. NY Jets

10. Carolina (5-9) – vs. Tampa Bay, at New Orleans

11. San Diego (6-7) —  vs. Baltimore, at Detroit, at Oakland — SD win over BAL on SNF 12/18 pushes them past Bills

12. Philadelphia (6-8) —  at Dallas, vs. Washington

13. KC (6-8) –  vs. Oakland, at Denver

7-7 teams:
Arizona, Oakland, Tennessee, New York Giants, Chicago, Seattle

Teams that cannot pass the Bills in draft order: NY Jets, Cincinnati, Denver, Atlanta, Dallas, Detroit, San Francisco, Houston, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New England, New Orleans, Green Bay.

*Teams the Bills cannot pass in the draft order: Indianapolis, Minnesota, St. Louis.

The eight most important games on the NFL slate weighing on the Bills’ draft order:

I have a sickness that requires me to always want the Bills to win, even when they are absolutely out-of-it. That said, the following results would be the best for the draft.

1. Bills vs. Denver – BUF loses
2. Bills at New England – BUF loses
3. Tampa Bay at Carolina – TB wins
4. Indy at Jacksonville – JAX wins
5. Washington vs. Minnesota -WSH wins
6. San Diego at Oakland — OAK wins if SD beats BAL on SNF 12/18
7. KC vs. Oakland — KC wins
8. Washington at Philadelphia – WSH wins IF they lose to MIN (No. 5)