Some facts, observations, and heard-on-the-streets

Until the State Legislature changed the political calendar setting up June primaries, this time of year was mostly a quite time for local politics.  But throw in anti-Constitution pronouncements and a new re-districting plan for the Assembly and you have quite a mix for politics in December 2022.  Here are some facts, observations, and heard-on-the-streets:

• Senator Raphael Warnock’s re-election in the Georgia run-off caps a pretty decent year for the Democratic Party, legislatively and politically.  This was the first year since 1934 where the party controlling the White House did not lose a Senate seat in the midterm elections.
• Yes Bills fans, the short guy on stage when Herschel Walker sort of conceded was Doug Flutie.
• President Joe Biden played his political role very well, helping where he could and cheering quietly when it was necessary.  The former guy helped his party lose their third successive election.
• Current Democratic House Whip Jim Clyburn has playfully suggested that Kevin McCarthy might need to come to Democrats and ask for a few votes for speaker to put him over the top.  That won’t for multiple reasons ever happen but have some fun with it Congressman Clyburn!
• After slumbering in the land of uselessness for many months, the state’s Independent Redistricting Commission came back to life this month.  With some new members on board the Commission actually produced a joint Democrat-Republican plan for redrawing the Assembly lines for the remainder of this decade.  A state Supreme Court had previously ruled that the legislatively drawn Assembly districts, which were used for the 2022 elections, were gerrymandered and needed to be re-done.
• Given the presence of a court in the matter, and also given that the proposed districts might do some harm to the Assembly’s existing majority, it is likely that the Legislature will try its hand at the redistricting once again.  Which could be followed by another court imposing its will on the proceedings.  The redistricting “special master” is warming up in the bullpen.
• As currently drawn by the Commission, the proposed Assembly districts in Erie County and Western New York would result in significant changes.  Here’s a summar:
  • In the 140^th district, currently represented by Democrat Bill Conrad, the geography would change to include only part of Tonawanda while adding the western portion of the Town of Amherst. He would lose a portion of Buffalo plus the City of Tonawanda and North Tonawanda.
• • In the 141^st district, the seat now held by Democratic Assembly Majority Leader Crystal Peoples-Stokes, more of Buffalo would be included east of Main Street with additions into Kaisertown and South Buffalo.
• • The new 142^nd district appears to not include any incumbent member of the Assembly.  The district would include parts of South Buffalo and Hamburg, along with Lackawanna and West Seneca.
• • The proposed 143^rd district of Democratic Assemblywoman Monica Wallace would remove portions of East Buffalo and expand into the entire town of Lancaster.
• • In the 145^th district presently represented by Republican Angelo Morinello the district would add the City of Tonawanda.  The district extends into Niagara County, including Niagara Falls.
• • The current 146^th district, which is wholly contained in the Town of Amherst, would only include Williamsville and portions of the East Amherst while adding Clarence, Alden, Elma, and Marilla.  Democratic Assemblywoman Karen McMahon is the incumbent.
• • The 147^th district, whose current Assemblyman is Republican David DiPietro, would include Orchard Park, part of Hamburg, the south towns of Erie County and part of Wyoming County.  Democratic Assemblyman Pat Burke is a resident of Orchard Park.
  • The 149^th district would add a small portion of the Town of Tonawanda while maintaining the west side of Buffalo. Democrat Jonathan Rivera is the district’s member of the Assembly.
• The Erie County Legislature has a new Democratic member in the 3^rd district (Grand Island, plus portions of Tonawanda and North Buffalo), Michael Kooshoian from Tonawanda.  He replaces Lisa Chimera, who was recently appointed Deputy County Executive by Mark Poloncarz.
• The 10^th district will also see a new legislator following the election of Joseph Lorigo to the State Supreme Court.  Filling that vacancy is more complicated than the other seat.  You might want to grab a piece of paper to diagram this one.
  • Erie County Conservative Party Chairman Ralph Lorigo is promoting his daughter-in-law, Lindsey Lorigo, for the seat; she is Joseph’s wife.
  • Complication number one in this matter is that a vacancy in a legislative seat must be filled by the remaining members of the caucus that the departing legislator organized with.  That would be the three remaining Republicans on the Legislature:  John Mills, Frank Todaro, and Christopher Greene.
  • The County Charter requires that someone appointed to a legislative vacancy must be registered with the same political party as the departing legislator belonged to.  Joseph Lorigo is a Conservative, as is his wife.
  • You can change your party affiliation fairly easily now, so someone who is not a Conservative today could become one tomorrow for the purpose perhaps of getting appointed to a legislative vacancy.
  • Another complication is that the Republicans and Conservatives are not getting along at the moment so come June we might see both Republican and Conservative primaries for the legislative seat.
  • Former County Comptroller Stefan Mychajliw is moving into the 10^th district from Hamburg and is seen by some as the Republicans choice for the interim appointment.  In 2020 Mychajliw ran last in a primary for a seat in Congress.  In 2021 he lost his campaign for Hamburg Town Supervisor.  He was most recently employed by the political consulting firm Big Dog Strategies.
  • Other names in the mix include Sandy Magnano, who ran for the Assembly against Pat Burke this year; an Elma town board member; and the deputy supervisor in West Seneca.  Republicans will likely make their choice for the seat this month.
  • Look for Mills to return to his former position as Republican Minority Leader at the Legislature in 2023.
• Mark Poloncarz is running for re-election as County Executive.  West Seneca Supervisor Gary Dickson is mentioned as a possible Republican candidate for the office in 2023, as is Senator Ed Rath.  Party endorsements will be made in about ten weeks.
• All nine Buffalo City Common Council seats are up in 2023.  Wondering if there will be any aftereffects from the way the post November snowstorm was handled.
• Georgia is still more a red state than purple or blue, but Democrats in that state seem to have set up a very efficient and effective get-out-the-vote operation while facing all sorts of roadblocks to voting.  The Albany Time-Union recently reported that in the New York elections this year Republican turnout was 63 percent while the Democrats only got out 47 percent of their affiliated voters.  New York Dems might take a lesson or two from their Georgia cousins.
• There are still four weeks to go in the regular season, but it is awfully nice to see the Bills sitting on top of the AFC.  Go Bills!

Twitter @kenkruly