Some facts, observations, and heard-on-the-streets

Until the State Legislature changed the political calendar setting up June primaries, this time of year was mostly a quite time for local politics.  But throw in anti-Constitution pronouncements and a new re-districting plan for the Assembly and you have quite a mix for politics in December 2022.  Here are some facts, observations, and heard-on-the-streets:

  • Senator Raphael Warnock’s re-election in the Georgia run-off caps a pretty decent year for the Democratic Party, legislatively and politically.  This was the first year since 1934 where the party controlling the White House did not lose a Senate seat in the midterm elections.
  • Yes Bills fans, the short guy on stage when Herschel Walker sort of conceded was Doug Flutie.
  • President Joe Biden played his political role very well, helping where he could and cheering quietly when it was necessary.  The former guy helped his party lose their third successive election.
  • Current Democratic House Whip Jim Clyburn has playfully suggested that Kevin McCarthy might need to come to Democrats and ask for a few votes for speaker to put him over the top.  That won’t for multiple reasons ever happen but have some fun with it Congressman Clyburn!
  • After slumbering in the land of uselessness for many months, the state’s Independent Redistricting Commission came back to life this month.  With some new members on board the Commission actually produced a joint Democrat-Republican plan for redrawing the Assembly lines for the remainder of this decade.  A state Supreme Court had previously ruled that the legislatively drawn Assembly districts, which were used for the 2022 elections, were gerrymandered and needed to be re-done.
  • Given the presence of a court in the matter, and also given that the proposed districts might do some harm to the Assembly’s existing majority, it is likely that the Legislature will try its hand at the redistricting once again.  Which could be followed by another court imposing its will on the proceedings.  The redistricting “special master” is warming up in the bullpen.
  • As currently drawn by the Commission, the proposed Assembly districts in Erie County and Western New York would result in significant changes.  Here’s a summar:
    • In the 140th district, currently represented by Democrat Bill Conrad, the geography would change to include only part of Tonawanda while adding the western portion of the Town of Amherst. He would lose a portion of Buffalo plus the City of Tonawanda and North Tonawanda.
    • In the 141st district, the seat now held by Democratic Assembly Majority Leader Crystal Peoples-Stokes, more of Buffalo would be included east of Main Street with additions into Kaisertown and South Buffalo.
    • The new 142nd district appears to not include any incumbent member of the Assembly.  The district would include parts of South Buffalo and Hamburg, along with Lackawanna and West Seneca.
    • The proposed 143rd district of Democratic Assemblywoman Monica Wallace would remove portions of East Buffalo and expand into the entire town of Lancaster.
    • In the 145th district presently represented by Republican Angelo Morinello the district would add the City of Tonawanda.  The district extends into Niagara County, including Niagara Falls.
    • The current 146th district, which is wholly contained in the Town of Amherst, would only include Williamsville and portions of the East Amherst while adding Clarence, Alden, Elma, and Marilla.  Democratic Assemblywoman Karen McMahon is the incumbent.
    • The 147th district, whose current Assemblyman is Republican David DiPietro, would include Orchard Park, part of Hamburg, the south towns of Erie County and part of Wyoming County.  Democratic Assemblyman Pat Burke is a resident of Orchard Park.
    • The 149th district would add a small portion of the Town of Tonawanda while maintaining the west side of Buffalo. Democrat Jonathan Rivera is the district’s member of the Assembly.
  • The Erie County Legislature has a new Democratic member in the 3rd district (Grand Island, plus portions of Tonawanda and North Buffalo), Michael Kooshoian from Tonawanda.  He replaces Lisa Chimera, who was recently appointed Deputy County Executive by Mark Poloncarz.
  • The 10th district will also see a new legislator following the election of Joseph Lorigo to the State Supreme Court.  Filling that vacancy is more complicated than the other seat.  You might want to grab a piece of paper to diagram this one.
    • Erie County Conservative Party Chairman Ralph Lorigo is promoting his daughter-in-law, Lindsey Lorigo, for the seat; she is Joseph’s wife.
    • Complication number one in this matter is that a vacancy in a legislative seat must be filled by the remaining members of the caucus that the departing legislator organized with.  That would be the three remaining Republicans on the Legislature:  John Mills, Frank Todaro, and Christopher Greene.
    • The County Charter requires that someone appointed to a legislative vacancy must be registered with the same political party as the departing legislator belonged to.  Joseph Lorigo is a Conservative, as is his wife.
    • You can change your party affiliation fairly easily now, so someone who is not a Conservative today could become one tomorrow for the purpose perhaps of getting appointed to a legislative vacancy.
    • Another complication is that the Republicans and Conservatives are not getting along at the moment so come June we might see both Republican and Conservative primaries for the legislative seat.
    • Former County Comptroller Stefan Mychajliw is moving into the 10th district from Hamburg and is seen by some as the Republicans choice for the interim appointment.  In 2020 Mychajliw ran last in a primary for a seat in Congress.  In 2021 he lost his campaign for Hamburg Town Supervisor.  He was most recently employed by the political consulting firm Big Dog Strategies.
    • Other names in the mix include Sandy Magnano, who ran for the Assembly against Pat Burke this year; an Elma town board member; and the deputy supervisor in West Seneca.  Republicans will likely make their choice for the seat this month.
    • Look for Mills to return to his former position as Republican Minority Leader at the Legislature in 2023.
  • Mark Poloncarz is running for re-election as County Executive.  West Seneca Supervisor Gary Dickson is mentioned as a possible Republican candidate for the office in 2023, as is Senator Ed Rath.  Party endorsements will be made in about ten weeks.
  • All nine Buffalo City Common Council seats are up in 2023.  Wondering if there will be any aftereffects from the way the post November snowstorm was handled.
  • Georgia is still more a red state than purple or blue, but Democrats in that state seem to have set up a very efficient and effective get-out-the-vote operation while facing all sorts of roadblocks to voting.  The Albany Time-Union recently reported that in the New York elections this year Republican turnout was 63 percent while the Democrats only got out 47 percent of their affiliated voters.  New York Dems might take a lesson or two from their Georgia cousins.
  • There are still four weeks to go in the regular season, but it is awfully nice to see the Bills sitting on top of the AFC.  Go Bills!

Twitter @kenkruly

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Goldman and Lander spar hard over Israel

Former city comptroller Brad Lander (left) and Rep. Dan Goldman clash over Israel as Manhattan primary spotlights Democratic divide.

DAYS THE BUDGET IS LATE: 57

BRIDGING THE GAP: The debate over Israel is proving to be a wedge issue in the competitive primary between Rep. Dan Goldman and former city Comptroller Brad Lander. But the incumbent, who’s fighting for his political life, is making the argument that he and his challenger aren’t so different on the issue after all.

“We are both progressive Zionists who believe in Israel's right to exist as a Jewish state, and we both support a two-state solution to bring peace to the region,” Goldman said earlier today on a WNYC candidate forum. “It's disappointing to me that he's using this dog whistle attack, when in reality we really do share the same core principles.”

Lander — who, like Goldman, is Jewish and a Democrat — has positioned himself as more critical of Israel than the incumbent, and some in the party’s progressive wing have sided with him because of it. Lander and his supporters have repeatedly criticized Goldman for his ties to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the pro-Israel group that has become a major player in elections on both sides of the aisle — and a subject of intense debate — especially as the public has an increasingly negative view of Israel.

Progressives have targeted AIPAC in their messaging, a strategy Lander has also embraced. Goldman “can't unrig the system because he's part of this system, he takes money from Wall Street, from private equity, from crypto, from AIPAC,” Lander argued at the forum.

Like Goldman, some have raised concerns about the criticism of AIPAC, which has a mixed record in races it gets involved in. In an interview with POLITICO, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, one of a handful of Jewish governors, said he thinks the arguments against AIPAC spending have “been used cynically by some to try and silence certain voices, to try and say that certain people participating in politics shouldn’t count or should be viewed in a toxic way.”

Goldman, who is endorsed by AIPAC, has said he returned the money from the organization. And four weeks out from the primary, there’s no indication that AIPAC’s affiliated super PAC is going to spend in it.

Still, Israel remains a prominent issue in the race — no matter how much Goldman attempts to neutralize it. Last month, the incumbent rolled out an ad denouncing President Donald Trump and Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the war in Iran.

Public polling in the district, which covers parts of Manhattan and Brooklyn, has been scarce. But a recent Emerson College survey found Lander leading Goldman by more than 30 points. Lander is endorsed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani — whom Goldman did not support during the mayoral election — the Working Families Party and a slew of progressive officials and organizations. Goldman has the backing of Gov. Kathy Hochul and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, along with more than a dozen unions. Goldman also recently received the support of Hasidic leaders from Brooklyn’s Borough Park enclave.

As for Goldman and Lander’s similarities on Israel, the challenger pushed back, pointing to Goldman having “voted for every single U.S. military aid package to Israel.” In a back-and forth during the forum about the boycott, divest and sanctions movement — which both Goldman and Lander said they do not support — Goldman said he agrees with Lander that “Israelis aren't going to be safe until Palestinians are free,” to which the challenger retorted: “You don’t do anything to make it happen.”

“I believe in the vision of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, but it's not acting consistently with Jewish or democratic values right now, and it can't while it keeps occupying the West Bank and Gaza, and imposing apartheid on Palestinians,” Lander said. “The differences here are strong. If people want someone who is really going to fight to end Israel's occupation of the West Bank and Gaza, to make it so that Jewish New Yorkers and Muslim New Yorkers can work together instead of be divided from each other, and try to address the failures of U.S. foreign policy, the choice is clear.”

Much of the forum focused on Israel. When asked if he would vote for the “Block the Bombs Act,” which would prohibit the sale or transfer of military equipment to Israel until the country guarantees compliance with international law, Goldman said it is “not going to come to a vote, because it was written last summer as an effort to support a ceasefire, which was reached in October, and our laws enforce international human rights law already.” When pressed again, he said the legislation has “been overtaken by events, and I think there are other issues with ‘Block the Bombs’” but also that we need to "aggressively enforce international law against Bibi Netanyahu.”

Lander has called Israel’s actions in Gaza a “genocide.” Goldman said today it’s “really important that we move away from labels and terminology, especially for legal terms, and focus on how we can arrive at a two-state peaceful solution.”

The incumbent also expressed regret for voting to censure Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) in 2023 over her criticism of Israel, saying “there are better ways of dealing with that that I wish I had pursued” and “it was a very emotional time and sometimes emotion gets the best of you.”

“This is an incredibly, incredibly emotional issue right now for very, very many people, and what I'm worried about is that it is dividing all of us; it is dividing Muslims and Jews, it is dividing Jews,” Goldman said. “This is part of the reason why I disagree a little bit about what the critical issues are in this race. The critical issues are the ones facing the voters, and those are not necessarily what's going on 6,000 miles away, it's what's going on at their kitchen tables.” Madison Fernandez

From the Capitol

New York’s status as a blue state that includes several swing seats has made it a fulcrum for the national fight over redistricting.

REDISTRICTING REDUX: New York Democrats are expected to introduce bills by Friday to pave the way for new congressional lines in 2028, according to four people familiar with the talks.

Officials are weighing two constitutional amendments — one that would allow some minor tweaks, and another that would permit an aggressive Democratic gerrymander, according to the people, who were granted anonymity to discuss the closed-door conversations.

New York’s cumbersome process to change the state constitution restricts Democrats from redrawing House boundaries in time for the 2026 midterm elections. But House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, a Brooklyn Democrat, has made his home state’s House lines part of a broader, longer-term strategy to pick up seats in the closely divided chamber.

“This is a potentially existential matter for our democracy in the ‘28 elections,” said Assemblymember Micah Lasher, a Democratic House candidate who previously proposed an amendment to allow for mid-decade redistricting. “There’s a broad understanding that in the redistricting arms race New York can’t be on the sidelines.”

Read more from POLITICO Bill Mahoney and Nick Reisman. 

HOCHUL BACKS ALT ROCK BAND: The governor’s press shop sent out a release today that heaped effusive and exuberant praise on a ‘90s rock band.

The missive — uncharacteristic of the staid memos typically dispatched by the gov’s press shop — was sent to promote a state-sponsored watch party on Long Island for the U.S. vs. Paraguay World Cup match on June 12, which will feature a pregame concert from Third Eye Blind, or 3EB.

“Participation in the older, untouchable realm of nervous star-making could color a band's identity,” the governor’s office said. “In the case of 3EB, it often blurred the perception of their brilliant musical creations.”

It’s unclear if the band behind hits like "Semi-Charmed Life" and "Jumper,” which formed in San Francisco, feel the same way about the governor. In 2016, 3EB made headlines when their lead singer said he “repudiates” the Republican party and called Donald Trump’s then-presidential campaign deplorable. But there’s no record of him expressing similar passion — either in support or opposition — for New York’s 57th governor.

“3EB won wide success during a tumultuous group of years when the major-label recording industry was finally losing its grip on an enterprise that for decades it had dominated with steely efficiency,” Hochul’s office also said. “3EB now write, tour, record, and communicate in a fluid new world where their music continues to evolve naturally. Their exchange with their audience is unfiltered and being from the hub of tech, they are using it to develop a closer connection with their audience.”

Perhaps 3EB can release an updated version of its 2000 single “10 Days Late” to inspire lawmakers as they scramble to wrap up the nearly two-month late state budget. — Jason Beeferman

SHARPE SUBMITS: Libertarian Larry Sharpe has filed to run for the “Coalition Party” in this year’s gubernatorial campaign, making him the only candidate seeking to run without major party support.

The odds are long he’ll actually make the ballot — a reality he’s more than willing to concede.

“It doesn’t matter, we’re never going to make it. We’re going to be in lawsuits,” Sharpe said when asked how many signatures he submitted.

One individual familiar with the filing said he believes Sharpe submitted 1,600 of the required 45,000 signatures.

Third parties have become all but extinct in major races in New York since former Gov. Andrew Cuomo hiked the signature threshold from 15,000 in 2019. “Bobby Kennedy Jr. spent a million dollars,” Sharpe said of the now-health secretary’s 2024 presidential campaign. “He’s a fucking Kennedy and he couldn’t get on.”

The only other candidate to file for an additional ballot line in November was Bruce Blakeman, who submitted to add the “Vote Affordable” line to the Republican and Conservative ones he’s already running under. His campaign told the New York Post he submitted 66,345 signatures — not quite the number most experts say is needed to make a candidate immune from challenges. — Bill Mahoney

FROM CITY HALL

City Council member Shahana Hanif criticized two woman for attending a protest outside Gracie Mansion.

RAISING HELL: City Council member Shahana Hanif is under fire from critics for declaring on social media last night that two fellow Muslim women critical of Mayor Zohran Mamdani should be “condemned to Jahannam,” the Islamic concept of hell.

But Hanif, the first Muslim woman elected to the Council, says the criticism against her is overblown — and potentially bigoted.

“Let’s be serious: ‘Go to hell’ is a pretty common expression of frustration or disappointment … but the moment Arabic enters the conversation, suddenly people will act like I said something far more sinister,” Hanif told Playbook today.

Hanif delivered the broadside in an X post last night criticizing the two women, Anila Ali and Zeba Zebunnesa, for participating in a protest held outside Gracie Mansion to call on Gov. Kathy Hochul to remove Mamdani from office over the claim that he’s not doing enough to combat antisemitism.

“May Allah condemn you to Jahannam,” Hanif wrote in the post, which was responding to a message from Ali saying she and Zebunnesa were on their way to the Gracie demonstration.

Ali and Zebunnesa are organizers with a group called American Muslim & Multifaith Women’s Empowerment Council.

In the Quran, Jahannam is portrayed as a place of divine justice where sinners are sent to face punishment in the afterlife. Broken into seven descending levels reserved for different groups of sinners, Jahannam is considered the Islamic equivalent of hell, with punishments becoming more extreme the deeper one goes.

Elchanan Poupko, a rabbi and social media commentator, said Hanif crossed “a red line” with her tweet.

“Why is @ShahanaFromBK, an elected official, using religion for targeted harassment against a Muslim woman @anilaali, for exercising her constitutional rights protesting @ZohranKMamdani????” Poupko wrote on X. “This is unacceptable.”

A few hundred people participated in the protest outside Gracie Mansion last night, though no elected officials or mainstream Jewish groups were billed as being in attendance.

The event featured people brandishing Israeli flags and demanding that Mamdani, a vocal supporter of Palestinian rights, do more to combat antisemitism in New York. The event also featured more extreme, bigoted elements, including people shouting that Mamdani, an American citizen born in Uganda, should be deported.

Hanif pointed to the fact that rhetoric like that played out at the protest in justifying her Jahannam jab.

“I can and will criticize MAGA influencers joining a MAGA hate rally full of conspiratorial rhetoric and f-bombs,” Hanif said. — Chris Sommerfeldt 

IN OTHER NEWS

TARGETING GAP: A database of more than 1,200 lawsuits shows more than 93 percent of immigration enforcement arrests in New York and New Jersey targeted Latinos, despite the fact that they make up only 66 percent of immigrants without legal status. (THE CITY)

NO PLAYING AROUND: New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport and New York Attorney General Letitia James announced a joint investigation into FIFA’s ticket selling practices. (POLITICO)

‘I WAS HURT’: New York’s Legislature is considering bills to amend policies for imprisoned pregnant women after one gave birth while handcuffed in a Brooklyn courtroom. (Gothamist)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.

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